Tomorrow, January 19, 2022, the first visit of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi to Russia will take place.
The Iranians call it "historic" in advance.
Firstly, because the first visit of the newly elected Raisi is to some extent truly historic.
Secondly, Iranians love oriental pomp, especially when they need something.
What does Iran need from Russia today?
And what does Russia need from Iran?
Let's try to reason.
Raisi's visit to Russia was prepared well in advance.
I don’t think I’ll be mistaken in assuming that the team of Iranian hawks who visited Russia a year ago (in February 2021) was engaged in preparing it: the speaker of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, who under Raisi was supposed to become - and became !
- the head of the Foreign Ministry, and several more colorful parliamentary hawks in shoulder straps and turbans, supporters of nuclear expansion, enemies of President Rouhani.
At the same time, Ghalibaf, who never met Putin, brought President Putin a "secret letter" from Supreme Leader Khamenei.
I wrote about this earlier.
Frustrated by the Trump-ruined nuclear deal, Khamenei decided to turn Iran eastward.
And I wanted to see China and Russia as global players behind my back.
Apparently, he received some kind of answer from Russia, because even a year later there is still no return to the nuclear deal with the United States and the West.
But for the past year, Iranian diplomats and Ksirov envoys have been actively working on the Eurasian continent, paying special attention to neighbors: Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, India (Raisi visited India in July 2021, offering Modi a new bundle of “collective security with the participation of the countries of the region, including Iran and India as two important regional players"), Central Asia, the Middle East as a whole.
And of course, Russia and China.
Initially, the visit of the President of Iran was scheduled for February 2022, at least according to the media affiliated with the foreign ministries of both countries.
But in the end, the visit was scheduled for January 19.
There is an explanation for this postponement, for the most important thing for Khamenei is actually now unfolding in negotiations to return to the nuclear deal in Vienna.
The exceptional importance of this is emphasized by the fact that Iran is represented by Khamenei's personal confidant and relative, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani.
The negotiation process is divided into rounds, endless pauses are made to "think", the delegations go home and fly back to Vienna.
Khamenei did not say “no” even when the Americans and the French lost patience and broke off negotiations themselves with the words: “That’s it, there’s no point in discussing anything further, Iran is not serious about the matter,” as it was on New Year’s Eve, for example.
Khamenei comes back to the deal himself, again and again.
This, in my opinion, suggests that: 1) he is not 100% sure that China and Russia, not to mention the pro-American India, will implement his global plans, escalating with the United States and cooperating with the sanctions pariah ; therefore, it is still necessary to negotiate with the United States, in a deal or behind the scenes; 2) he raises his stakes in negotiations with the US to the maximum, using Russian and Chinese factors in order to bend the Americans harder and get the most out of nuclear negotiations and a possible deal.
If he really squeezes them, Iranian newspapers will beat gilded drums and blow loud trumpets to the glory of victorious Iran, before which even the United States bowed in bow.
Americans are used to these concerts: as they say, national flavor, like Khamenei speaking in a mosque from a podium, and at that time there is a rifle next to him.
Happenes.
The Americans say: "Oh, I'm afraid, I'm afraid," to please the 82-year-old man, and continue diplomatic dances in Vienna.
In case Khamenei fails to push Biden to the wall and squeeze the maximum out of the deal (for example: getting the green light on global trade and economic cooperation with India; allowing Iran to become the exclusive operator between China and India; resuming relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE and, possibly, to receive their investments; to become a partner with Pakistan in Afghanistan, that is, to receive permission from Washington to become one of the most important regional operators), then Russia will be a backup option up the sleeve.
And if the Americans succeed, the mullahs will have at least two geshefts.
Recent events hint in every possible way that the "strategic" partnership with Russia and China for Khamenei today is precisely the trump card for bargaining with "our Western partners."
Let's look at the deck.
Hossein Amir Abdollahian made his first visit to China as Iranian Foreign Minister a few days ago, in mid-January.
Not earlier and not later.
Be careful before Raisi's visit to Russia.
For the first time in a year's pause, the Iranians again began to shake the "25-year agreement on the strategic partnership between Iran and China."
For the sake of a spectacular picture and heightening the drama, Khamenei equipped Abdollahian on a tour of China.
Which, by the way, ended near Shanghai (the "Shanghai group" is one of the most influential financial groups in China, "oil generals" with strong ties in international organizations - the SCO, the IMF, etc.) and was widely covered by the Shanghai media.
Take a look at the air tracker of the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry - we see that on January 15, his plane leaves Wuxi (Wuxi) - a city near Shanghai.
Handshakes against the background of a red flag with communist stars are addressed, without a doubt, to Washington.
The horror story about the military-political alliance of Russia, Iran and China still affects the Americans, and Tehran is well aware of this.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian
Gettyimages.ru
© ATPImages
While the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry was being photographed in Beijing, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), shone in the Iranian media: "Iran's agreement with China is our strategic achievement."
So, the Iranian Foreign Minister returns from China and President Raisi, after a wave of the conductor of the Iranian political orchestra, Ayatollah Khamenei, immediately flies to Moscow to meet with Putin.
Accurately in a one-day pause between China and Russia, Iran sends a firing telegram to the UAE and the US at the same time.
Our Shiite brothers have time to work!
(After this remark, I expect a storm of applause from the editorial board of the Zavtra newspaper.)
Yemen strikes UAE with 20 drones and 10 missiles
Faithful Iranian friends, the Houthis, also hit oil tankers and some facilities in the Musaffah industrial area and Abu Dhabi airport.
This is a noble Iranian sneer at the ambitions of the Emirati leader ibn Zayed, who declared himself a sort of center of political regulation in the region.
For the sake of this position “above the fray”, the UAE even planned to abandon the purchase of American F-35 fighters.
(By the way, will they change their minds after this attack? Question for the participants of the quiz "Clever and clever".)
This Iranian grin is even more sarcastic because the attack on the UAE was launched on the day of the visit of the Houthi chief to Tehran and a meeting with President Raisi.
How interesting: on the day of the attack on the UAE, the Houthis' chief negotiator met with #Iran's president Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran.
https://t.co/JT6kyhvhmF
— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) January 17, 2022
In short, we are seeing an increase in Iranian rates in Vienna to the maximum.
And this suggests that Iran still really wants a deal - just as much as it wants to bend the Americans under its grandiose, I must say, plans.
This, friends, is a completely normal situation for an oriental bazaar.
Self-respecting people in the East bargain to the last.
Therefore, we do not turn our heads around, but learn from the dealers of the Tehran bazaar.
Well, now back to Russia.
The dynamics of Russian-Iranian relations is as follows: in the first nine months of the Iranian year (March-December 2021), trade between our countries increased by 41%, according to the Iranian Customs Administration (IRICA).
The trade turnover between Iran and Russia is 3,558,491 tons worth $1.655 billion. Despite the cheerful optimism and the dynamics of 41%, these figures are not particularly significant for the Russian Federation.
Despite all the pathos and importance of Raisi's first "historic" visit to Russia, Moscow seems to be beginning to see clearly that our eastern partners are playing their game with the United States today and we are indirectly helping them in this.
On the eve of the visit, it was announced that the conclusion of a 20-year agreement on a strategic partnership between Iran and Russia, similar to the Chinese one, is still being postponed.
Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali referred to the fact that not all the details of the agreement have been finalized.
Iran, through its diplomatic mission in Russia, has already voiced its desire to become a regional operator for the purchase of Russian grain (a terminal for this is being built by an Iranian businessman in North Ossetia).
Iran also made a "grain" offer to India.
Iran ready to help India transport wheat to Afghanistan https://t.co/azE7xgQuRYpic.twitter.com/286fTZfAzO
— The Times Of India (@timesofindia) January 10, 2022
In short, Iran wants to make the most of its transit routes, ports and logistics as an operator between Russia, India and China.
Iran's message to Russia is this: if you need both India and China together, please contact us, we will settle everything.
In general, in this visit of Raisi to Russia, I still see more preferences for Iran than for Russia.
So, for example, through us, Iran wants to get into the Customs Union of the EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union).
As early as October 6, 2021, Foreign Minister Lavrov, following negotiations with his Iranian counterpart Abdollahian, said that Moscow positively assesses Iran's interaction with the SCO and EAEU countries.
That is, Moscow and the "Shanghai group" in China are powerfully helping Iran survive and trade.
Thus, the temporary agreement leading to the formation of a free trade zone with Iran, signed on May 17, 2018 and entered into force in October 2019, led to the fact that the trade turnover between the EAEU countries and Iran increased by 18.5%, to $2, 9 billion is not bad for a start.
But Iran has grandiose plans.
This is also why Iran is so active today as a mediator between the parties to the Afghan conflict and the Taliban *, and its diplomats and top generals are trying to push the Pakistani monopoly over the Taliban in order to divide the vital, "golden" transit routes between India, China, Central Asia and access to the Indian Ocean.
Through Afghanistan - the way to Central Asia.
Russia has its own interest.
Tomorrow, the attention of the world press will be riveted on the long-discussed but not yet confirmed deal to sell Russian weapons to Iran in the amount of $10 billion.
Russian journalists working for Iran have managed to report that Iran has completed the purchase of Russian Su-35 fighters, and even sent 30 Iranian pilots to Russia to learn how to fly them.
They also discussed the possibility of repairing and upgrading MiG-29 fighters and 25 Su-24MK bombers, which have long been in the service of the Iranian Air Force in a fairly worn form.
Iran's military air fleet is perhaps the weakest link in the armed forces today, and Iranian generals have already come to the bride in the fall.
But such a deal would provoke a sharp reaction from Israel, with which Moscow is trying to strike a balance.
The topic of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems and their sale to Iran was again raised, and, according to Iranian journalist Khayal Muazzin, Russia is even considering the possibility of buying their drones from Iranians, whose work has just been demonstrated by Iran over UAE facilities.
In real time.
As in the case of China, Iran allegedly intends to pay Russia with crude oil.
In short, the option of exchanging raw materials for weapons and grain is likely to be kept in mind by Iran in case the deal in Vienna bursts at the seams.
For Russia, in any case, cheap Iranian oil as a means of payment is more profitable than expensive Iranian oil on the market if sanctions are lifted.
But all this is still more rumors and assumptions.
Which of the plans between Iran and Russia is destined to come true and whether any surprises are prepared, we will find out tomorrow.
But about one surprise - and what a surprise!
We can say for sure with certainty.
For the first time in history, the President of Iran will speak from the rostrum of the State Duma of the Russian Federation.
The mediator of relations with the Iranian parliament, State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, of course, came up with a noble performance.
I have already written about Mr. Raisi's love for fiery speeches and public speeches, honed back when he was a prosecutor.
Mr. Raisi is really great on the podium.
And I hope that Russian TV channels will broadcast live from the walls of the State Duma so that you too can enjoy the moment.
Whatever one may say, the speech of the President of Iran from the rostrum of the Russian State Duma (the hit of Queen is heard in my ears) is a 100% hit in the headlines of all world news.
In terms of PR, it worked for 5+.
I have only one question: what will we, Russia, get from this visit, speech and, in fact, assistance to Iran (for the umpteenth time)?
* "Taliban" - the organization is under UN sanctions for terrorist activities.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.