Resentment. It is this feeling that probably gnaws at Jens Stoltenberg following the Russian-American talks that took place in January. At which he, the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance, was tritely ignored, including when discussing issues of European security. They treated him like a simple clerk, on whose opinion nothing depended.
Actually, the way it is: Jens Stoltenberg is not among the people who make decisions about the future of NATO. However, as you know, the smaller the clerk, the more he wants to stand out and prove his importance. Therefore, Mr. Stoltenberg found a very original way to put himself on the front pages of the world media - he spoke about the possible expansion of NATO. No, not at the expense of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova (which, as everyone understands, will not become members of the alliance in the foreseeable future: the member countries themselves will vote against, because they do not want a war with Russia), but at the expense of Sweden and Finland. “Sweden and Finland are our close partners, we worked together, we conduct joint exercises. They meet NATO standards in most areas, they have well-organized, well-managed security and defense institutions,” Stoltenberg said.And if they ask to join, then "it can happen very quickly."
Theoretically, there are no obstacles to NATO expansion at the expense of Sweden and Finland. Both of these states are developed European democracies with a good economy, they will not be dependents in the alliance. Their armies are already lined up according to the Western model. Finally, they do not have territorial conflicts that automatically give NATO (if these states are included) a ticket to war with Russia. However, even in this case, there will be no “very quickly” - the alliance has a clear entry procedure that requires the member country to go through several negotiation stages. When the same Montenegro was literally dragged into NATO, the whole procedure took almost a year and a half. And this was only because the member countries had no objections - after all, the inclusion of Montenegro (as well as North Macedonia) did not aggravate relations with Moscow, for example.
However, this does not make it easier - the process of including Finland and Sweden may take at least three years, but the very beginning of this procedure will become a serious challenge for Russian-Western negotiations and the European security system itself. “Our side considers the traditional policy of non-participation in military alliances pursued by Finland and Sweden as an important factor in ensuring stability in the north of Europe,” explained Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. That is, translated from diplomatic into Russian, this policy of non-participation allows the Kremlin, in its military planning, to consider Sweden and Finland more neutral countries (albeit cooperating with the alliance), rather than rivals and not place deterrence systems against them.
Will Moscow now have to revise its military planning? It all depends on Helsinki and Stockholm. And the mood in these capitals is different.
Thus, the Finnish authorities have already stated that they will make the decision to join the alliance themselves - without any consultations with Russia. “Our wiggle room and freedom of choice includes a military alliance and asking NATO for membership if we choose to do so,” President Sauli Niinistö said. “We must support this freedom of choice, keep it a reality,” Prime Minister Sanna Marin assures. However, here we are talking about the freedom of choice that the Finns stand for. The authorities of this country do not want to join NATO. “Finland is not discussing the issue of membership with NATO, and Finland has no such plans. Our security policy remains unchanged,” Foreign Minister Pekko Haavisto said. The population does not want this either. In 2021, 24% of Finns were in favor of joining NATO, 4% more than in 2020.
Yes, the West has already had an example of including a country in NATO, the majority of whose population was against it, that is, Montenegro.
However, Finland is still not ruled by a local mafia boss who can ignore the opinion of the people.
In addition, the Finns understand the uniqueness of their geographical position.
They realize that the better their relations with Russia, the higher the country's place in the Western rankings.
Starting at least with the fact that it can earn (in political and economic terms) by providing platforms for Russian-Western negotiations.
It is more difficult with Sweden, because there is more enthusiasm there. On the one hand, Stockholm is unlikely to take any serious steps apart from Helsinki. The countries have the closest military and political cooperation - there were even cases when the Prime Minister of Finland, Sanna Marin, also represented Sweden at a meeting of the European Council (since the mother of the Prime Minister of Sweden died and he had to attend the funeral). Yes, and the ruling Social Democratic Party in Sweden is against entry. “Europe is not calm right now. And we do not want it to be even more restless, ”said Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde.
However, on the other hand, the majority of deputies in the Swedish Parliament are in favor of NATO membership (the ruling party has 100 seats out of 349 - a specificity of Swedish democracy).
As for ordinary Swedes, 46% want their country to join the alliance (3% more than in 2020).
Only 34% are opposed.
Now in the Swedish press there are active discussions about the possible start of entry.
Opponents say that the country is already closely integrated with NATO states.
Advocates of accession argue that close integration is not enough and that the threats to Sweden's security posed by Russia have risen sharply.
And numerous fairy tales replicated by the Western media regarding Russian aggressiveness find fertile ground in Sweden.
So, in response to "military activity in the Baltic Sea," the Swedes sent an additional military contingent to the island of Gotland. As if Moscow is threatening him! As if Moscow threatens anyone in the Baltic Sea, where either NATO countries (the Baltics) or states with which Moscow has no problems (Finland and Sweden) are located. But no, the Swedish Ministry of Defense does not allow themselves to be fooled! “It is clear that there is a risk. An attack against Sweden cannot be ruled out... It is important to show that we are not naive. Sweden should not be taken by surprise if something happens. It is important to send a signal that we are taking the situation seriously, ”says the Minister of Defense of this country, Peter Hultqvist.
Thus, the leadership of the NATO member countries and Mr. Stoltenberg personally have the opportunity to really drag Sweden into the alliance - all you need to do is turn the booster of Russophobic propaganda to the maximum and wait for the change of power in Sweden.
But if this plan works, then it will be a shame not for Stoltenberg, but for the Swedes - because of the consequences of their entry into NATO.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.