Zhongxin Finance, January 15 (Zuo Yukun) On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the statistical data on changes in the sales price of commercial residential buildings in December 2021.

In the last month of 2021, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities generally continued the downward trend since the fourth quarter, and the year-on-year increase fell.

  It is worth noting that the data in December released a positive signal, and the industry believes that the continued pessimism of the property market has been slightly curbed.

Data map: There are many high-rise buildings in the city.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming

"Frozen" for half a year, the market is now warm

  "On the whole, the main feature of housing prices in December is that with the stabilization of control policies and the increase in credit supply, the

market gradually shows a bottom feature

." said Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property.

  According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities turned from flat to a month-on-month drop of 0.1%, and the sales price of second-hand housing turned from a month-on-month drop of 0.2% to an increase of 0.1%.

  In addition, the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in second-tier cities both fell by 0.3% month-on-month, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The sales price of new commercial residential buildings in third-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as the previous month; the sales price of second-hand residential buildings decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The sales price index of new commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2021.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

  "The house price index shows an important signal, that is, although it continued to fall month-on-month, the decline did not expand, and even narrowed slightly." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, believes that this is a place to be affirmed.

  A big rise is not stable, and a big fall is also not stable.

In 2021, housing prices in 70 cities across the country will be overheated in the first half of the year and too cold in the second half of the year.

Zhang Dawei pointed out that if the average reduction of new and second-hand housing is calculated according to the city average, 70 major cities saw an average reduction of 87% in November, and the second half of 2021 can be regarded as the fastest half-year historical price reduction.

  At the same time, the rapid downward adjustment also means that the adjustment cycle may be relatively short, and the housing price data in the 70 cities also slowed down in December.

Zhang Dawei believes that, from an overall perspective, although the market is still in a trough, it has gradually stabilized.

First-tier cities take the lead out of the downturn

"This is the first time the decline has narrowed since the current round of the market downturn." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, pointed out that among the 70 cities in

  December, the number of cities where the price of new houses fell month-on-month decreased by 9 compared with the previous month, and about 50% of the cities were second-hand.

The month-on-month decline in housing prices narrowed or stopped falling compared with the previous month

.

  The four first-tier cities were the first to step on the brakes in the slump.

In December, in terms of sales prices of new houses, Beijing was flat month-on-month, Shanghai increased by 0.4%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.6% and 0.1% respectively; in terms of second-hand housing sales prices, Beijing and Shanghai increased by 0.8% and 0.4% respectively, Guangzhou, Shenzhen fell 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

The chain as a whole basically stopped falling and turned stable.

Second-hand residential sales price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2021.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

  "These types of cities have good fundamentals and strong support for housing demand. After the credit environment improves, the demand from the previous wait and see will enter the market, and the transaction activity will increase, which will lead to a narrower month-on-month decline in housing prices." Xu Xiaole believes that the market can be in a few months. After the decline, the decline narrowed, indicating the resilience of my country's real estate market demand.

  Yan Yuejin also pointed out that

Beijing's second-hand housing prices have seen the largest increase, regardless of the month-on-month or year-on-year increase

, which also requires Beijing to pay close attention to the second-hand housing market.

"Especially pay attention to the supply of new houses. If the supply of new houses is not in place, the relevant pressure will start to shift to the second-hand housing market."

Credit improvement leads the property market to pick up, and the second quarter may turn from negative to positive

  "It can be said that the downturn in the market in 2021 is mainly caused by the tightening of financial conditions, not a problem with market demand." Xu Xiaole said.

The narrowing of the decline was also driven by the gradual release of positive effects from credit policies.

  In the fourth quarter of 2021, the marginal improvement in the financial and credit environment has contributed to the bottoming of market volume and the improvement in market expectations has eased the pressure on housing prices.

Data from the Shell Research Institute shows that since October 2021, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shell 50 cities has rebounded month-on-month for three consecutive months, and the second-hand housing climate index, which represents market expectations, also stopped declining in December.

  "The data in December released a positive signal, at least indicating that house prices will not blindly fall or the decline will expand blindly. After the policy effect appears, the house price data may also stabilize." Yan Yuejin expects that the first quarter of 2022 will continue to decline slightly, but The second quarter may turn from negative to positive.

  "At present, the credit backlog has eased significantly in many cities. Taking Beijing as an example, the basic housing loan cycle has been shortened from 4-6 months in the third quarter to about 3 months." Zhang Dawei also believes that with the biggest factor affecting the recent real estate market Mortgage loans have gradually eased, and it is predicted that the property market is expected to stabilize in the second quarter of 2022 after the policy bottoms out.

(Finish)