A new mutant virus, the Omicron strain, has made the spread of the new coronavirus much faster than ever before.
On the other hand, it is said that the Omicron strain is less likely to become severe, and some people are saying that it is okay to get infected.
However, experts say that elderly people are expected to become more severe, and even if the rate of seriousness is low, if the number of infected people increases significantly, the number of severely ill people will increase, which may lead to medical strains. I am appealing not to neglect the measures.
"Increased number of severely ill" is after the spread of infection to the elderly
The more contact between people, the easier it is for the new coronavirus to spread, and the rate of aggravation is low, and the infection spreads from the active younger generation. It did not increase until the infection spread to the elderly and people with underlying illnesses.
According to the data shown by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the susceptibility to
aggravation is as low as
0.2 times for teens ▽ 0.3 times for 20s ▽
4 times for 40s
▽ 10 for 50s. Double
▽ 60s is 25 times
▽ 70s is 47 times
▽ 80s is 71 times
▽ 90s is 78 times, which is higher as the age increases.
According to WHO reports, the rate of aggravation of Omicron strains is lower than that of Delta strains, while WHO says, "The rate of aggravation of Omicron strains in people who are older, have underlying diseases, and have not been vaccinated. Will go up. "
It was not until the 11th of this month in Okinawa Prefecture, where the infection was most widespread, according to the materials presented at the expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, since the spread of infection by the Omicron strain began in earnest in Japan. Approximately 75% of infected people are in their 30s or younger in one week, and as of the 12th, more than 95% of infected people are reported to be asymptomatic or mild.
With the spread of this infection, as in the past, there is concern that the infection will spread to the elderly and the number of severely ill people will increase in the future.
Is the number of "severely ill" increasing about two weeks after the increase in "number of infected people"?
According to the "Clinical Guide" prepared by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, patients infected with the new coronavirus will need oxygen administration for about 20% in about one week after the onset, even if it is mild in many cases at the beginning of the onset. , Approximately 5% are said to require treatment with a ventilator.
It often takes a certain amount of time from infection to aggravation, and the peak number of infected people per day in the fifth wave last summer was 25,992 on August 20, but inpatients were hospitalized. The peak number was 24,081 on September 1, according to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, and the peak number of severely ill was 2,223 on September 4, two weeks after the peak number of infected people.
Even with the spread of infection by the Omicron strain this time, there is a possibility that the number of hospitalized patients and the number of severely ill patients will increase about two weeks after the increase in the number of infected people, and it is necessary to carefully look at the Omicron strain at the expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. I'm pointing out.
Possibility of medical pressure due to increased number of hospitalized patients
Even more problematic is that the infectivity of Omicron strains is stronger than that of conventional mutant viruses, so even if the rate of aggravation is low, the number of patients who will be hospitalized will increase significantly and the medical system may be strained. ..
UK data show that the risk of hospitalization for Omicron strains is one-third that of Delta strains, while the infectivity of Omicron strains is up to three times that of Delta strains.
In the UK, the number of new cases exceeds 200,000 a day, which is more than three times the peak since last summer when the Delta strain spread, and according to health authorities, more than 2,000 new cases are hospitalized every day. As of the 11th of this month, the number of inpatients has risen to nearly 20,000, and the medical system is becoming tight.
Also in the United States, according to the CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of infected people exceeded 1,406,500 per day on the 10th of this month, and the number of inpatients was more than 140,000, which is the highest level ever, and the burden on the medical system is burdened. It is increasing.
In Okinawa Prefecture, where the infection is most widespread in Japan, time has passed since the spread of the infection began, and as of the 12th of this month, the usage rate of secured beds was 47.1%, and the usage rate of secured beds for critically ill patients was 51.4%. And the burden on medical institutions is increasing.
Expert "The situation does not change to the point of caution"
Experts warn that if the number of infections increases explosively in Japan, the number of people who need to be hospitalized will increase even if the rate of aggravation is low, and the medical system may be strained.
Atsuro Hamada, a specially appointed professor at Tokyo Medical University who is familiar with overseas infectious diseases, said, "Currently, many infected people are young people, but if they spread to the elderly, they may become more serious. It's still a situation that needs attention. "