The first New Year's week of Kazakhstan - seven days that shook the Eurasian world - is becoming the most serious test not only for the largest and system-forming state on the southern flank of the CIS, the CSTO and the EAEU, for its political model and institutions of state power, but also for a significant part of the entire post-Soviet space.

The strongest thunderstorm that struck Kazakhstan in early January 2022 is not an atmospheric, but an unprecedented socio-political phenomenon that has grown into attempts to forcibly seize power in different regions of the country - from Astana (Nur-Sultan) to Zhanaozen and Aktau, which are located in the oil-producing Mangistau region. , - came as a shock to everyone. 

Even on the eve of the New Year, nothing foreshadowed trouble.

The first president and architect of the independent Kazakhstani state, Nursultan Nazarbayev, took part in the informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg.

At a meeting in Russia's northern capital, he was honored as the patriarch of Eurasian integration and the creator of an effective governance model that could serve as an example of sustainable development for other former Soviet republics.

Congratulating the residents of Kazakhstan on the New Year, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke about the key role of Nursultan Nazarbayev in the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union and the development of relations between Moscow and Astana, which have always been exemplary and were on the rise last year, despite the coronavirus pandemic.

“And this, of course, is a very serious result of our joint activities with the current leadership of Kazakhstan - with the president, with the government,” said Vladimir Putin.

Against the background of all the upheavals, times of troubles and "color revolutions" that the former Soviet republics have experienced to one degree or another over the past three decades, it was Kazakhstan that looked like a success story of post-Soviet modernization, claiming to serve as a solid and reliable bridge between the East and The West.

Unlike Russia, which survived the dashing 90s and the shooting from the tanks of the White House in October 1993, when the country of the first president Boris Yeltsin for a short time reigned diarchy, nothing like this was observed in Kazakhstan.

There was also no history of several generations of “fighters against the regime”, as in Belarus of Alexander Lukashenko, as well as the time of troubles of President Elchibey in Azerbaijan and the rebellion of Colonel Suret Huseynov.

There could be no question of a "color revolution" according to the Georgian, Ukrainian, Armenian or Kyrgyz scenario.

The list of examples, going over one republic after another, could be continued and continued - the comparison would always be in favor of Kazakhstan, the stability of which was qualitatively different from the stability of Turkmenistan - the country of golden statues of Turkmenbashi, in which time seemed to be frozen.

Kazakhstan looked very different against the background of other republics, where life was poorer and less stable, and more and more actively declared its ambitions at the regional and global levels.

The idea of ​​Kazakhstan as a citadel of post-Soviet stability, which had been forming for three decades after the collapse of the USSR, collapsed in a matter of days. 

No matter how events develop further, the former Kazakhstan no longer exists and will never be.

The sooner we all face the truth and become aware of this harsh reality, the better.

This will minimize the damage to the January “week of insanity” and prevent new, immeasurably more serious losses, which may turn into losses not only for Kazakhstan, but also launch a dangerous process of Eurasian disintegration, given that Kazakhstan has always been its heart. 

Today, the main task is not to try at any cost to revive the myth of Kazakhstani stability, but to prevent further escalation, fraught with the most serious consequences - a lot of blood and even in the most radical scenario - the disintegration of the Kazakhstani state.

Let's not forget that decisions on the ground do not depend on what is said in the capital, located somewhere far away, but on clan groupings - Juzes, capable of entering a new stage of redistribution of power.

Despite the fact that the Kazakhstani protests were triggered by a two-fold increase in gas prices, the first week of the riots showed that this whole story is not about gas at all, but something completely different.

It is noteworthy that the readiness demonstrated by the authorities to return the previous gas prices, and then the resignation of the government and other conciliatory gestures of President Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev had the opposite effect.

All these steps only provoked the protesters, gave them confidence that more pressure is needed - and the government will collapse. 

Quickly forgetting about the gas price, which no one remembers anymore, they rushed even more frenziedly to smash administrative buildings, arrange acts of vandalism, including the destruction of the Almaty airport, and seize arsenals of weapons.

Real battles unfolded on the streets of Kazakhstani cities and the counter of human casualties began to click inexorably.

After overcoming the first days of confusion, President Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev took decisive action, announcing the start of a counter-terrorist operation and turning to the Collective Security Treaty Organization for help.

The decision to send CSTO peacekeepers to the country, most of whom, apparently, will be Russian servicemen, has inflated the stakes in the great Kazakhstani game, bringing it to the regional level.

Moscow threw its authority on the scales and at a critical moment supported Astana, despite the rise in nationalist and anti-Russian sentiments over the past year. 

All this gives reason to hope that anti-government protests will eventually be suppressed, their organizers and actors will be severely punished.

But how long will this semblance of stability last, given that the former Kazakhstan, of which Nursultan Nazarbayev was a political demiurge, no longer exists?

Elbasy, or "the father of all Kazakhs", who until January of this year seemed to be the highest moral authority and the guarantor of stability and civil peace, did not utter a word during the most serious attack on his own brainchild - the independent Kazakh state.

The “father of the nation” remained aloof from the upheavals experienced by the nation, which means that the former vertical is no longer working.

The latest confirmation of this was the completely unexpected decision of President Tokayev to remove Nursultan Nazarbayev from the post of chairman of the Security Council.

And this despite the fact that earlier in Kazakhstan a law was passed proclaiming Nursultan Nazarbayev the life head of the Security Council, and it was he, and not Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, who was considered the person making the main decisions in the republic.

In medicine, there is the concept of asthenic syndrome, or chronic fatigue syndrome - a painful state of neuropsychic weakness and mood instability, which at a certain moment deprives a person of the possibility of previous mental and physical activity.

The causes of asthenic syndrome can be a malfunction inside the body.

There is every reason to believe that depreciation or obsolescence of the previous model of development of an independent Kazakhstan state headed by Elbasy led to the emergence of a political asthenic syndrome, which can be called “asthenic syndrome”. 

This is serious, but still not fatal - "astanic syndrome" is treated.

It's just that Kazakhstan will be different.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.