Against the background of a crazy rally, now accelerating, now holding back gas prices - not only, by the way, in Europe, there it is simply especially indicative and evident - the oil markets look like a real island of stability and predictability in the stormy sea of a rapidly approaching systemic economic (well, at least, absolutely sure - the energy) crisis. Even at what is called the operational level: in the last week of the year, Brent quotes consolidated in a relatively comfortable range of $ 78-80 per barrel.
The reasons, in general, are clear: multidirectional factors simply worked.
On the one hand, commercial oil reserves in the United States fell to a three-month low, despite the strategic reserves uncovered by the Biden administration.
On the other hand, this was offset by relatively unpleasant information for exporters from China, where the volume of the first package of quotas for the purchase of crude oil for private refineries for oil imports in 2022 was 11% lower than a year earlier.
Nevertheless, exporters, in contrast to stock exchange, for example, speculators, are generally quite satisfied with such a picture of the world.
By the way, they, as well as real consumers, are not interested in the price peaks on the stock exchanges, they are not interested in the critical volatility, on which the money "real market players" are sawing.
They only hinder them, this is the very nature of the extractive sector, “big oil”, which protects itself as best it can from any speculative fluctuations. They just need to plan and predict their activities, excuse me: exploration and production by clicking on a computer is not done, this is a gigantic and very complex production - and preferably for years to come.
Moreover, in the current conditions, it is the oil industry that is unexpectedly becoming a systemic stabilizing factor, which seems to keep the world energy industry from being drawn into the funnel of pre-crisis turbulence.
The consequences of which could be truly catastrophic, and not only for the energy sector, but for the entire global economy.
And the oil industry was able to achieve this stability only at the expense of absolutely “heretical”, “medieval” and “non-market”, from the point of view of orthodox “supporters of fair competition”, measures.
It is difficult to argue with even the most fanatical adherents of the market.
Sorry, but the cartel is “non-marketable,” as they say, by definition.
Simply at least as one of the extreme forms of monopoly, absolutely ruthless from the point of view of the market.
By the way, let us remind you that in many countries that have taken American business law as a basis (including, by the way, the Russian Federation - let's be honest here too, at least to ourselves), a "cartel agreement" is actually , just a felony.
And the "informal cartel" (the holders of the conditional controlling stake of which are the insidious Arab sheikhs, who are afraid to say what they are doing with progressive sex deviants and even some authoritative New York journalists, and no less insidious representatives of the Russian totalitarian regime) for a normal "democratic economic Marketer "is disgusting simply by its existential nature.
But with all this, nothing can be done about it.
If only because the Saudis are also like “historical allies” for Western democracies.
In addition, the allies are often personally generous in an oriental way.
That, you know, for any democratic politician, let's say, is important.
And the Russians themselves have these nuclear bombs - like a village idiot candy wrappers.
And also - more recently - and hypersound.
That, in general, for people who understand is quite an economic argument, including.
... But seriously, in the current situation it is not so easy to make medium-term forecasts for the oil markets, as opposed to the same gas ones.
But pretty comfortable.
No, there, too, everything is far from being as rosy as the world economy would like it to be.
But there is at least some semblance of order, stability and predictability.
This means that there are much fewer uncertainties.
And thank you for this to the same OPEC + “cartel”, who, like it or not, took on the role of a global regulator: how “market institutions” work in this sector, we all too well remember from the recent crisis of overproduction, when exchange regulators were driving oil futures are in deeply negative values.
And the “gas crisis” that is raging on European markets right now has, let’s be frank, quite a similar nature.
So it's better, sorry, OPEC + in the role of a mega-regulator of oil markets that are supersensitive for the world economy.
And it’s a pity that the idea of a "gas OPEC" was not implemented in due time.
By the way, about OPEC.
If anyone did not pay attention, on January 4, a regular scheduled meeting of the OPEC + ministerial committee took place, at which the Russian Federation is traditionally represented by the “energy” Deputy Prime Minister Novak. And which, also traditionally, passed without any unnecessary sensations, as they say, “in a working business atmosphere” (c). As a result of the meeting, the next 400 thousand barrels of oil per day will have to enter the market in February: as expected, the parties to the agreement will hardly stop adhering to the previously agreed agreements without any completely force majeure reasons.
And therefore, everything and further, most likely, will proceed according to an understandable and completely predictable scenario (unless there are any very serious force majeure circumstances, of course, such as a serious regional war).
According to which the average annual price may turn out to be even slightly higher than the average annual price of the past, which was more than successful for oil producers in 2021 - somewhere at the level of the conditional corridor of $ 75-78 per barrel of Brent.
And this is quite a conservative forecast.
As for the domestic oil-extracting industry, it is more than happy with what is happening: in general, judging by the available figures, it will be quite satisfied with anything that is above $ 60-65 per barrel on average per year. That, note, below even the most conservative forecast. And what the Russian oil industry really needs now is only time. For some internal, somewhere even purely managerial, restructuring and implementation of promising projects. You don't have to go far here: one Vostok Oil cyclopean project, carefully nurtured by the flagship of our oil production industry, Rosneft, which includes the development of giant Taimyr fields, only the proven resource potential of which is more than 5 billion tons of light sweet oil, is capable, to put it mildly, turn over world markets.
And it is quite understandable why, among other things, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is very thoughtfully coordinating the interests of our country with you within the framework of the OPEC + agreement.
And he does this by no means only from the breadth of his Arab soul.
It's just that in the current circumstances, it is much more correct to have Russian oil workers, albeit difficult, from the point of view of the Saudis, but still colleagues, comrades and partners.
Do not, do not bring Allah, merciful and merciful, something too dissatisfied with competitors.
And this - what is called a position of strength - in general, in fact, is the most correct negotiating position for representatives of a truly great power.
And not only in the oil industry, of course.
Thus, we can safely state: in exactly the same way as the OPEC + agreement turned out to be a very effective stabilizing factor for world oil production, the oil industry itself, as an industry, may well become, at least in the coming year 2022, exactly the same stabilizing factor even not only energy, but the entire global economy.
If, of course, the world does not collapse at all into a funnel of a global economic catastrophe, which still seems to be completely avoidable, but the threatening signs of which are now, right before our eyes, breaking through into historical reality, for example, in the energy markets of Europe.
But then, of course, “big oil” will not be to blame for this.
Which, of course, is quite powerful in this world.
But, unfortunately, it is by no means omnipotent, no matter who says anything about this.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.