China News Finance, January 6th (Zuo Yukun) With the end of the third batch of centralized land supply in Beijing and Zhengzhou, except for Ningbo, which will conduct the third land auction in January 2022, the focus of key cities will be implemented for the first time in 2021. End the offer.
In February 2021, the Ministry of Natural Resources required 22 key cities to implement the "Two Concentrations" policy for residential land.
According to statistics from the Zhongzhi Research Institute, this one-year-long “wholesale” of residential land supply has resulted in a total of 2064 residential land transactions in 22 cities, with a planned construction area of approximately 244 million square meters, and a total of over 2 trillion yuan in transfers.
Data map: A residential building in Hangzhou.
Photo by Guo Qiyu
The land market goes from hot to calm
In general, the policy of centralized land supply will alternate between cold and hot in the first year of implementation.
In the first batch of land supply, real estate companies waiting to be fed are rushing for land; the second batch is quite deserted, with bottom-price transactions and unsold auctions constantly being staged in various places; after policy adjustments, the third batch of land supply has stabilized.
Specifically, in the first round of centralized land supply, real estate companies that wanted to cover their positions were more motivated, creating a fiery start for centralized land supply, and frequent land grabs for topping out.
For example, the first batch of 30 parcels of land in Beijing attracted more than 200 real estate companies to hunt, and 10 parcels of land reached the upper limit of land prices and were transferred to the bidding process for high-standard commercial residential construction projects; Hangzhou's first batch of centralized supply All 57 plots of the land were sold, of which 41 plots entered the stage of self-sustaining proportion.
In the second batch of centralized land supply, the pursuit of land has drastically cooled down, and real estate companies have seen an obvious phenomenon of "collectively lying flat".
This is mainly because the high land premiums in some cities in the first batch of centralized land supply and the high proportion of land acquisition by leading companies violated the original policy intentions. Various localities intensively adjusted the land auction rules for the second round of centralized land supply, even more often. The announcement of the second batch of centralized land supply was postponed for the second time.
After the suspension, the heat of the restarted second batch of centralized land supply dropped significantly, and Waterloo events such as postponement, withdrawal, and loss of auction became the main theme of the second round of centralized land supply.
Among the 43 plots in the second batch of centralized land supply in Beijing, only 17 have real estate companies, and the "abandonment rate" exceeds 50%; in Hangzhou, a total of 31 plots have been listed, 7 plots have been terminated for sale, and 10 plots have been sold out. In the end, only 14 plots were sold, which was a 75% decrease from the number of plots sold for the first time.
When it came to the third round of centralized land supply, many cities optimized the transfer conditions on the previous basis, such as the bidding qualifications, the starting price of the land, and the land payment cycle, etc., and the pass-through rate was controlled to a certain extent.
Among the 13 plots listed in Beijing, 9 plots were sold on the same day, 2 plots were unsold, and the other 1 plot entered the on-site bidding stage; Hangzhou also recovered significantly, and the 35 plots of the third batch of centralized land transfers did not have first-class auctions. Moreover, nearly 70% of the land parcels reached the top and the overall premium rate rose to about 7%.
The trend of "one fire, two drops, and three stabilization" is also synchronized with the changes in the transaction premium rate.
According to data from the Zhongzhi Research Institute, the average premium rate for the first batch was 14.78%, the average premium rate for the second batch was 4.04%, and the average premium rate for the third batch was reduced to 2.39%.
"The land premium rate is gradually reduced, and the land price is controlled from the source. This is related to the mass land supply. Of course, the tension of the developer's capital chain and the later state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will also have a significant impact on the decline in the premium rate, but it is undeniable Centralized land supply plays a role in reducing the land premium rate and thereby lowering housing prices.” said Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center.
Data map: A commercial residential building in Chengzhong District.
Photo by Sun Rui
The dominance of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises has become a trend
With the ups and downs of the centralized land supply for the whole year of 2021, the main force of the "landing army" is also yours and I will appear on stage.
Statistics show that in the first batch of centralized land supply, the top 5 companies in the amount of land acquisition were China Merchants Shekou, China Resources, Sunac, Vanke, and Greentown. A total of 127 plots of land were acquired in 20 cities, and the total amount of land acquisition was Over 150 billion yuan.
"Combined land acquisition" has also become the land strategy of many real estate companies.
Binjiang Group leads the list with a joint ratio of 67%. Afterwards, Jinke, Zhuoyue, and the first opener all maintained a joint land acquisition ratio of more than 60%.
In the second batch of centralized land supply, restrictions on qualifications for participating in auctions, funding sources, and the deterioration of the financing environment of the industry, private housing companies are less motivated to participate in the auction, small and medium-sized real estate companies are more cautious in acquiring land, and local state-owned and central enterprises have demonstrated their "understanding" strength.
According to data from the Yihan Think Tank, in the second batch of centralized land supply, the amount of land acquired by state-owned enterprises and the building area accounted for more than 45%, an increase of more than 20% from the first batch. On this basis, the amount of land acquired by state-owned central enterprises The building area accounted for 76% and 68% respectively.
In terms of different cities, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises accounted for more than 70% of the land acquisition in 14 cities, and 90% or more in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.
The positive phenomenon of state-owned enterprises' land acquisition was more obvious in the third centralized land supply.
According to data from Shenang Securities, in the third centralized land supply cities, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in Changchun, Wuxi and other cities accounted for more than 70% of the land. Among them, the third centralized land supply in Changchun was all collected by state-owned enterprises and central enterprises. Yes, of the 20 land transactions in Wuxi, 17 were obtained from the government platform.
Urban investment companies have also made significant moves in the third batch of centralized land supply. They have acquired over 80% of land in Shenzhen and Changzhou, and over 70% in cities such as Wuxi, Shenzhen, and Suzhou. Chongqing, Xiamen, Shanghai, and Jinan have acquired land. The land ratio is 40%-50%.
Huachuang Securities Research Report pointed out that the rise in the proportion of urban investment land acquisitions has to some extent made up for the problem of the substantial decrease in sales income caused by the cautious acquisition of land by developers.
The agency predicts that in the subsequent competitive landscape, the advantages of state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises with good operating and financial conditions are expected to expand.
"This centralized land supply model has initially achieved the purpose of a long-term mechanism. It has clarified the scale, the linkage of land prices and housing prices in hot cities, and the rules of competition. It protects the land acquisition desires of all large, medium and small developers." Li Yujia believes that from the perspective of the long-term real estate mechanism, centralized land supply will continue to be implemented, but one point to pay attention to is the land supply model, which needs to be based on the market. Make certain adjustments to the situation.
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