Proposed at the fourth quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank
Enhance the stability of total credit growth and structural tools to do "addition"
● Our reporter Peng Yang
The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its fourth quarter 2021 regular meeting recently proposed to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and enhance the stability of the growth of total credit.
Structural monetary policy tools must actively "addition" and use precise force.
Experts said that the combination of aggregate tools and structural tools will be the main feature of monetary policy for some time to come.
At the same time, through the implementation of structural tools, the precise support of small and micro private enterprises and the emerging fields of manufacturing will enhance the resilience of economic development.
Be more proactive
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to take the lead with stability, seek progress while maintaining stability, intensify cross-cyclical adjustments, combine with counter-cyclical adjustments, make overall plans for the convergence of macroeconomic policies this year and the next, and support high-quality economic development.
A prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, strengthen forward-looking, precise, and autonomous, give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregate and structure, be more proactive, increase support for the real economy, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity Enhance the stability of the growth of total credit, keep the money supply and the growth rate of social financing basically in line with the nominal economic growth rate, keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable, enhance the resilience of economic development, and stabilize the macroeconomic market.
"The formulation of this regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee has become more active compared with the third quarter. Under the background of facing triple pressures, monetary regulation should be more proactive and forward-looking, combined with aggregate tools and structural tools, or a period of time in the future. The main features of monetary policy.” The deputy director of the CITIC Securities Research Institute stated clearly.
Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, said that considering that the economy will face cyclical and structural factors next year, domestic monetary regulation requires the coordination of aggregate and structural tools.
Under the condition of moderate growth in total volume and reasonable ample liquidity, through the implementation of structural tools to accurately support key areas such as small and micro private enterprises, it will stimulate the vitality of micro entities, promote the recovery of domestic demand, and enhance the resilience of economic development.
In the view of Lian Ping, chief economist of the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, monetary control will remain flexible, moderately accurate, and stable and loose operations. Fiscal policy and monetary policy must be coordinated and linked, and cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical macro-control policies must be organically combined and maintained. The liquidity is reasonable and abundant, and the growth rate of the money supply and the scale of social financing is basically matched with the growth rate of nominal GDP.
Reduce corporate comprehensive financing costs
In terms of structural monetary policy tools, the meeting pointed out that structural monetary policy tools should actively "addition" and make precise efforts to convert the two monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy into those that support inclusive small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. Market-oriented policy tools, implement carbon emission reduction support tools and support special refinancing for clean and efficient use of coal, comprehensively implement policies to support coordinated regional development, and guide financial institutions to increase support for small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green development.
Huang Wentao, chief economist of China Securities Construction Investment Securities, said that the regulatory authorities have paid more attention to structural monetary policy tools recently.
For example, the interest rate reduction of refinancing support for agriculture and small businesses, the implementation of carbon emission reduction support tools and coal clean energy refinancing, and the completion of the conversion of two monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy, are expected to be combined with cross-cyclical regulation and counter-cyclical regulation. In the context of increasing the accuracy of monetary policy, and vigorously supporting the real economy and small, medium and micro enterprises, structural monetary policy tools will continue to play a major role.
The meeting proposed to improve the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, optimize the central bank's policy interest rate system, strengthen the supervision of deposit interest rates, give full play to the effectiveness of the reform of loan market quote interest rates, and promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs for enterprises.
Deepen the reform of exchange rate marketization, strengthen the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of "risk neutrality", strengthen anticipation management, grasp the balance between internal and external equilibrium, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
Dong Ximiao, a part-time researcher at the Institute of Finance of Fudan University, believes that in order to promote the organic combination of cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments and better reduce the comprehensive financing costs of enterprises, the next step can be a moderate reduction in the deposit reserve ratio, and there is also room for a certain drop in the loan market quoted interest rate.
Better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers
In terms of real estate, the meeting pointed out that to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate market.
"Since the second half of this year, the domestic real estate market has been disturbed by some factors. The financial management department has taken timely measures to promote the return of the real estate market to normal. The results have been achieved, but there is a process for real estate to return to normal. This time the People’s Bank of Continue to promote the return of real estate to normalcy." Zhou Maohua said.
Huang Wentao said that fine-tuning the real estate policy, providing financing window periods for high-quality real estate companies, providing financing support for guaranteed delivery projects, and providing financing assistance for the first homes and reasonable replacement of residential housing needs are all important directions for the lenient credit policy.
In addition, the meeting called for the establishment of a financial system to effectively support the real economy, improve the financial support innovation system, guide financial institutions to increase mid- and long-term loans to manufacturing, and strive to ensure that financial support for private enterprises is comparable to the contribution of private enterprises to economic and social development. Adapt to improve the green financial system with the goal of promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality.