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  • Sixth wave Spain arrives at Christmas with triple the infections of a year ago: "Much emphasis has been placed on that we were doing well, it was a mistake"

The number of daily infections in Spain has exceeded the worst moments of the pandemic. The data published last night by Health contains, in fact, two records: on the one hand, 49,823 new cases were added to the global count; On the other hand, the data of contagions notified dated in the last 24 hours - which is usually below reality, but presents less ambiguity than the previous one - also amounted to a figure never seen before: 27,265.

In other words, although the first figure may have incorporated cases that were delayed from previous days, the second leaves no doubt: we have never experienced so much transmission before. Since there were not enough diagnostic tests in the first wave, the maximum peak was so far in January of last year, a few days after the accumulation of Christmas, New Years and Kings holidays. This year, however,

that record has just been broken before the holidays begin

and winter just arrived, which began precisely yesterday.

The previous peak of cases added to the global count in one day occurred on January 21, with 44,357 infections, while the report in which the most positives were reported in the last 24 hours was also around those dates, on January 27, when that box marked 18,462, informs

Elena Quesada

. Therefore, not only has the record been widely exceeded, but the current upward trend is also unusual: a week ago, on Tuesday, December 14, the positives recorded for the day were 14,339.

They have almost doubled in seven days

.

The key to the current increase could be that, for the first time in the pandemic, we are experiencing two waves at the same time: the delta, which is still rising in the absence of strict measures, and the omicron, which is beginning to gain space quickly. This is how Antonio Guirao, a researcher at the University of Murcia and an expert in the evolution of the epidemic, considers it: "As the growth of omicron is faster, it begins to overlap the growth of delta ...

Two waves are overlapping

," he explains.

"The delta variant continues to grow; and while, the omicron variant is growing behind, from much lower levels, but much faster. So, it is catching delta, but delta continues to grow. We do not have a crystal ball, but what It could happen by the end of the year, the beginning of January, is that the delta and omicron infections would be half and half, that is, like two overlapping waves ", details Guirao, who estimates that, in this scenario,

we could find 100,000 cases daily in January, 50,000 for one variant and 50,000 for the other

.

Vaccines have prevented us from being in an even worse situation, but, in the face of such an avalanche of cases, the foreseeable thing is that hospitals will continue to fill up: "The rate of admission now to hospital and ICU, compared to what was before vaccination , it has dropped to half ", clarifies Guirao. "If at the end of the year we get to 50,000 infections only from delta, equal to last year's peak, the hospital situation would not be as dramatic as last year, but it

would be half as dramatic, which would continue to be very serious

."

In fact, and given the current record of infections,

the situation would be similar to the one that gave rise to the first wave if we did not have vaccines

.

The reproductive number, which measures the speed at which the epidemic grows, has stood in Spain at 1.4 in the last week.

The data is very high, since, above 1, the transmission is out of control.

But it would have been much worse without 80% of the population vaccinated.


"If there were no vaccines, the reproductive number would be approximately 7", calculates Guirao.

"That is outrageous, it is more than double what there was in March 2020 before the state of alarm. Right now, without vaccines,

even with the measures we have, it would be absolutely unsustainable, we would have to confine ourselves

," he concludes.

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