In immersion mode

What can I say here - the news coming now from a very recently cozy, energetically abundant pre-Christmas Europe is becoming more and more alarming.

Despite the fact that the gas price at the opening of the London ICE stock exchange last Friday dropped below $ 1,500 per 1,000 cubic meters (later, however, it returned to the level above the psychologically significant $ 1,500), we must pay tribute: for the energy (and not only) markets of the Old On the continent, even the very statement of this kind of question - "the price drop to $ 1,500 per thousand cubic meters" - looks extremely cynical and truly catastrophic.

It's even somehow silly to deny it.

But during the past week, it was the case that during the exchange trading the gas price at its peak exceeded $ 1,700 per 1,000 cubic meters. m - for the first time since "nightmare October". And judging by the picture that we are observing with admiration in fact in real time, there is clearly no need to expect a long-term trend for a decrease in energy prices (in the short-term, at least, in the future). And even without a wonderful series of nonsense, which are now continuously being done by European politicians and officials, who, with their own democratically groomed hands, warm up the market of expectations and raise already unbearable prices somewhere.

Well, after a whole series of attacks, which are now being carried out by "atlantist-minded" German politicians against the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, completed in iron, but not yet certified (which is especially epic, after Biden's "fundamental" agreements with Merkel, this gas pipeline, in fact, defending), the optimism of the conservative, that is, normal European inhabitants, to admit, is becoming even less.

As, in fact, we have with you.

Everything is simple here: you can negotiate with anyone if you need it for the business, even with the horned devil;

alas, this is how politics is most often done.

In certain circumstances, it is possible to agree even with an implacable enemy - there are situations when both sides of the confrontation need it.

But with an idiot, especially with an "ideological" idiot, alas, there is no physical opportunity to come to an agreement.

For thoroughly pragmatic reasons, by the way.

And regardless of the form and content of the "political animal" ideology professed by this instance.

They, these very "forms of ideology", can be very diverse and truly bizarre.

It's not about ideology.

As one of my old friends, who observed the young growth of European elites in their natural habitat, used to say, "This quirkiness does not indicate a lack of a brain, you should not deceive yourself."

It's just "such a brain."

These copies simply, even in the attached operating instructions, do not have such an option as the ability and ability to negotiate.

And even more so to comply with the agreements reached - this is generally some kind of savagery for them, they were not raised for this by a completely incubator method.

That, for example, the German Greens are now demonstrating not even along the outer contour, but right inside the newly created ruling coalition "traffic lights".

Where they simply could not enter without signing certain "coalition agreements" with senior, by the way, partners in the person of the Social Democrats.

This is simply a mandatory formal procedure when forming a coalition government in Berlin.

And what about them, excuse me, after that you can talk?

In the Moscow Kremlin, and in St. Petersburg's Gazprom tower of the Lakhta Center, by the way, this is certainly well understood.

Therefore, they took care in advance to distance themselves from such a beautiful picture of life, since the market situation is quite favorable for this.

But more on that below.

While talking about something else: in Germany, a key country for European energy security, "green" politicians, meanwhile, continue to frolic.

And the last one who at the current time was pretty much noted there was already a whole Vice-Chancellor, Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection of the Federal Republic of Germany, as well as an associate of the same Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock in the Union 90 / Greens party Robert Habek.

Who, not giving a damn about all the coalition agreements with the SPD, said after his comrade-in-arms that he considers the Nord Stream 2 project a geopolitical mistake of the country that chose it.

And I, as a Russian economic journalist, forced, based on purely professional duties, to follow, among other things, the current political agenda in Germany, have no questions about how the Russians will interact with the same Annalena Berbock and / or Robert Habek.

For the answer here to everyone, including me personally, is well known in advance.

And it is quite unambiguous and thoroughly pragmatically rational.

Oh, sorry, no way.

Not in this case.

I have another question: how will others, namely relatively sane partners in the same "traffic light" coalition in Germany itself, be able to cooperate with them after this?

Especially when you consider the mathematical inevitability of the administrative crisis in the republic associated with the departure of Angela Merkel from the post of Bundeschancellor.

Because you can say anything about her successor: both good and, perhaps, not very good.

But it is somehow very short-sighted not to understand that he has not yet gained the appropriate political and managerial weight in order to manage this madhouse.

And it is unlikely to pick up in the near future.

And therefore, hardly anyone should be surprised that in parallel to all these processes, but having to watch them closely, Russian Gazprom has once again seriously reduced the supply of Russian gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline (the so-called Polish gas corridor ).

This is especially eloquent and extremely clear against the background of the European gas market approaching peak winter demand.

No, but what?

What questions to Gazprom?

The Russian gas giant piously observes its contractual obligations to its European partners.

And then, excuse me, without us - with the current trends, and even with such a daring "green" Vice-Chancellor and Foreign Minister of the Federal Republic.

Or at least, if you really want an increase in supplies, then if you please - we can provide.

For example, through the second string of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is currently being filled with technical gas. No, in principle, it is possible, probably, in a different way.

But with the current trends, why do we need something differently?

Give at least one really good reason ...

But seriously, the situation is, to put it mildly, very, very alarming.

Because now Europe, especially that part of it that is “protected” by long-term contracts with the Russian “Gazprom”, is not even in crisis yet. So far, he walks along the edge. Everything is simple here: the average annual price for 1 thousand cubic meters. m under these contracts by Gazprom itself is projected at $ 295-330 (now it is, of course, higher - at the beginning of 2021, everyone remembers, gas was much cheaper, but so far it is far from catastrophic higher). That, you see, at the moment pretty dampens the madness of the price rally on the London ICE stock exchange and the Dutch hub TTF.

But this story is not so long: the “long” prices according to the formula will also continue to grow, albeit with a time lag. And, most importantly, now this volatility is being carried over to other sectors, for the time being, however, only energy. But we shouldn't forget how energy intensive the European economy is. And how soon will all this affect prices on European counters - and simply, which is especially sensitive, on the contents of burgher wallets.

But the most, perhaps, terrible thing is that it is obvious against the background of the systemic entry of the economy into the crisis funnel, a purely managerial crisis.

The managerial and simply intellectual level of the German, for example, "crisis managers" who have now come as part of the ruling coalition to the German government, is very clearly visible already from their first political statements.

And if, so to speak, in peacetime conditions this could somehow be retouched due to the stability and stability of the management system itself, then now there is a feeling that it is better for us to step aside.

Otherwise it may hurt.

And that is precisely why the Russian "Gazprom", for example, is not even going to enter into any, including political, discussions.

And it simply silently fills the second line of Nord Stream 2 with technical gas, demonstrating its readiness for commercial operation.

And he does not meddle either in certification issues or in other heated disputes, regulating various gas flows solely in their commercial interests.

Well, in the interests of our traditional European partners, of course.

For, to summarize coldly and cynically, we are generally satisfied with the current situation with prices and reformatting of European gas markets.

In any scenario of the development of events.

We can, as they say, dig, or we can not dig.

And the rest, including the Nord Stream 2 certification and the price rally in the spot markets, no matter how anyone wants, is simply not our question.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.