• While the executive ensures that the peak of the fifth wave of Covid-19 has been reached, the scientific community is already looking into the arrival of the sixth.

  • If there is enough to drown in the sequence of waves, the reference to the breaking wave is actually very suitable to evoke the health crisis, both scientifically and explanatory.

  • Why not also abuse this vocabulary of the sea to talk about the Coronavirus pandemic?

In the same way that we counted the demonstrations of “yellow vests” in “act”, the coronavirus epidemic has split for two years into successive “waves”.

With the emergence of the new Omicron variant in the midst of the Delta wave, the multiple political and scientific discourses or even the differences in the spread of the virus between the different countries, difficult however to navigate ... to the point of having slightly seasickness. , according to epidemiologist and professor of public health at the University of Geneva, Antoine Flahault, talking about waves still makes sense two years after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Why are we a little drowned in all these waves?

If the situation is not obvious to follow, it is not only the fault of the coronavirus. It is also that of the declarations which surge from all sides. This Tuesday alone, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran declared during the questioning session to the government in the National Assembly that France had a priori "reached an epidemic peak", with 50,000 contaminations per day. Except that the same day, at the André-Grégoire hospital in Montreuil (Seine-Saint-Denis), the head of the intensive care unit, Dr Vincent Das, assured AFP that we "do not see [have ] not the peak ”of this fifth wave. On the other hand, in the middle of the fifth wave linked to the Delta variant, the Omicron variant emerged, which immediately raised the fears of experts of a sixth wave. In their opinion of 8 December,the Scientific Council has thus expressed the possibility of an "increase in hospitalizations which will be added to those linked to the Delta wave". Monday on RTL, the boss of the AP-HP Martin Hirsch, meanwhile, predicted a sixth wave for the month of January.

Finally, as the pandemic is global, we must not forget information from other countries.

"In the United Kingdom, the fifth wave is not coming back down, unlike Germany and Austria which have adopted very strict measures", compares Antoine Flahault.

For its part, Sweden, the country with the lowest incidence rate in Europe, is still awaiting its fourth wave of contamination.

In short, everyone has their own wave.

So wouldn't the word “vague” be overused?

We speak of an epidemic wave when the number of contaminations and hospitalizations increase. However, this is still the case today. It is therefore legitimate for Antoine Flahault to use this analogy. "Maybe in a few months or a few years, if we manage to limit the number of serious forms of Covid-19 and therefore change the course of the pandemic, we will then stop using this term", explains the epidemiologist. Also, although the word does not appear in the books that one studies in epidemiology, it turns out that the picture is very scientifically accurate. "The waves have the same shape as the contaminations curves observed in different countries", underlines the expert, also director of the Institute of Global Health at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Geneva.

Note that the image would also help the general public to better understand the epidemic and its impact.

"The analogy with the maritime world is very telling and strong," Antoine Flahault says.

Referring to waves when talking about epidemics is appropriate because the latter spread.

When we talk about the wave in the United Kingdom [more like a tidal wave], we can say that it will break on our territory, just like waves on a beach.

The wave can drown, destroy and wash away.

"

Will the word "wave" be used for much longer?

Antoine Flahault believes that we could even push the maritime analogy even further in order to better describe the various phenomena of the coronavirus pandemic.

“In the ocean, there is the swell, these waves which rise and fall on which sailors navigate without it bothering them.

But there are also the waves which break on the shore or in the open sea and which are extremely dangerous.

The swell could symbolize contaminations with minor effects and the waves which break could be the equivalent of the mortality linked to serious forms of Covid-19 ”.

Our file on the coronavirus

There may even be a maritime phenomenon that could illustrate the grafting of this sixth wave on a fifth wave of Covid-19 still in progress.

“Sometimes the conjunction of two swells can cause a wave that is very high and becomes shattering when it breaks.

This is the theory of rogue waves, ”notes Antoine Flahault.

It remains to be seen until when we will count the waves and if we will go as far as with the “yellow vests” and their “act 65”.

Health

Coronavirus: Around 4,000 patients will be in intensive care around the holidays, according to Gabriel Attal

Health

Coronavirus: "Omicron could be the dominant variant in Europe in mid-January", according to Ursula von der Leyen

  • epidemic

  • Covid 19

  • Coronavirus

  • Health

  • Omicron variant

  • Contamination

  • 0 comment

  • 0 share

    • Share on Messenger

    • Share on Facebook

    • Share on twitter

    • Share on Flipboard

    • Share on Pinterest

    • Share on Linkedin

    • Send by Mail

  • To safeguard

  • A fault ?

  • To print