Why is New Caledonia's third referendum already biased?

• Will Sunday's decisive referendum turn into a parody of voting?

• In disagreement with the French government on the choice of the date of this election, the independence camp called for a boycott.

• A biased result in the ballot box which risks aggravating tensions in the territory.

" Never two without three ".

While New Caledonia will vote on Sunday (this Saturday evening in metropolitan time) for the third and “last” time for a referendum on its independence, after that of 2018 (which ended in a victory of “no” at 56 , 7%) and that of 2020 (“no” at 53.3%), will the story follow the famous maxim?

The past should call for caution.

In each previous referendum, there was a “no” victory much closer than what observers thought, and especially 3.4 points gleaned between 2018 and 2020.

What to suggest that the referendum on Sunday could change everything and see the victory of the "yes"?

Not at all, the result is almost known in advance, and will probably only make the situation worse. 

explains why.

Can the "yes" win?

No need to prolong the suspense, the "yes" has very little chance of winning in this third referendum.

Indeed, members of the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), supporters of the independence camp, boycotted the ballot.

Several reasons explain their position.

First, the coronavirus crisis.

Long preserved due to a border closure and a “zero Covid” policy on its soil, New Caledonia experienced its first wave in September.

An epidemic which particularly affected the Kanaks (56% of the victims of the territory, according to the figures for October), and which, according to the FLNKS, prevented from "carrying out a fair campaign".

A postponement of the vote was requested, which was refused by the government.

The date is also the second major point of disagreement. The Noumea Accord signed in 1998 provided for a series of consultations, spread over two years in two years. The third referendum should therefore normally have taken place in 2022. To this are added the statements in October 2019 by the then Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, excluding "that this third consultation can be organized between the middle of September 2021 and the end of August 2022 ”, in order to“ clearly distinguish between national electoral deadlines and those specific to the future of New Caledonia ”. Everything seemed to point to a third referendum after August 2022.

But on June 2, 2021, Overseas Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that the vote would take place on December 12, 2021, while noting that "this date was not the subject of a consensus".

This lack of consensus is also one of the reasons for the boycott of the Kanaks, explains Mathias Chauchat, professor of public law at the University of New Caledonia and expert in its institutions: “The State is organizing a consultation on the self-determination of country without the colonized people.

This referendum makes no sense.

"

Why is the advancement of the date so controversial?

The independence camp disputes the approximation of the date. This one does not actually serve its business. The camps are more or less fixed in New Caledonia: the Kanaks are pro independence, the descendants of Europeans pro maintaining their attachment to France. However, the two populations do not have the same demographic evolution at all. "Caledonia is losing between 2,000 and 3,000 European inhabitants per year at the moment and the Kanaks are, on the contrary, registering 3,000 to 4,000 new voters per year", underlines Mathias Chauchat, due to the youth of their population, which is gradually coming to the fore. age to vote.

The date falls in addition in full management of the coronavirus which, beyond the impossibility according to the Kanak camp to campaign because of the fear of leaving home, could have distorted the judgment on the dependence of the territory on France .

“Normally, health issues including border control are New Caledonian competences managed entirely locally”, explains the professor.

An autonomy that was not respected during the pandemic: "The State took over the powers of New Caledonia and showed that the island was dependent on France, on its vaccines, on its strategy, on its subsidies. .

France prevented New Caledonia from demonstrating that it could manage the health crisis, ”he laments.

Should we fear even more tensions after this referendum?

It will therefore be understood, the result of this vote is written in advance: an overwhelming victory of "no" is to be expected, with a score that will mean nothing on the reality on the ground in view of the boycott of the Kanaks. This referendum, which turns into a parody, risks exacerbating tensions. “The country is more divided than ever. The Kanaks are not - yet - hostile to France. They seek independence with partnership on the model of the Anglo-Saxon Pacific Island Associated States. But by dint of denying them everything, it is possible that decolonization will end badly, ”fears Mathias Chauchat.

Because a third "no" in a row, whatever its value, does not mean the end of the process of decolonization of New Caledonia, according to the terms of the UN. Sébastien Lecornu announced yet another referendum within 18 months on a new status of the territory in France, but it has become a battleground between Kanaks and Paris to know whether this status engages yes (the position of the Kanaks) or not (the position of the French government) a rewriting of the Constitution, a debate which will be decided by the Constitutional Council.

The question of who will be able to vote - or not - in this referendum is also controversial.

“This is especially when violence can arise.

If the electorate is open to all French people, it is more than likely that violence will reappear, ”notes Mathias Chauchat.

Who concludes: "By wanting to rush things, the State has broken confidence, because consensus had been the rule for thirty years.

“The stake is no longer on Sunday 12th, where the result is known in advance, but on Monday 13th and every day after.

Politics

New Caledonia: Self-determination vote on Sunday, energized and cyclonic early warning

Politics

New Caledonia: Overseas Minister goes to the site before Sunday's referendum

• Independence

• Referendum

• New Caledonia

• Vote

• Independence referendum

• Society

• 0 comment

• 0 share

  • Share on Messenger

  • Share on Facebook

  • Share on twitter

  • Share on Flipboard

  • Share on Pinterest

  • Share on Linkedin

  • Send by Mail

• To safeguard

• A fault ?

• To print