Few expected such harsh and frank words. No one was ready for the fact that the statement of Vladimir Putin in 2018 that attempts to resolve the Donbass problem by force could lead to the collapse of Ukrainian statehood would acquire a new sound, but already in the mouths of a high-ranking Russian military man. The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, at a meeting with the military attachés of foreign states in Moscow on December 9, said that "any provocations of the Ukrainian authorities to resolve the problems of Donbass by force will be suppressed."

The conflict in the region is entering an increasingly acute phase. The blame for this largely lies with the Western countries, which are pumping up Ukraine with weapons. According to Gerasimov, “the supply of helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles and aircraft to Ukraine is pushing the Ukrainian authorities to take drastic and dangerous steps. Kiev does not fulfill the Minsk agreements. The Ukrainian armed forces declare the beginning of the use in the Donbass of the Javelin anti-tank guided missiles, which were supplied by the United States, and also use Turkish-made reconnaissance and strike unmanned aerial vehicles. As a result, the already tense situation in the east of this country is aggravated. "

But at the same time, the head of the Russian General Staff called the information dispersed by the Western and Ukrainian media about the allegedly impending Russian invasion of Ukraine a lie. It would seem that this statement contradicts the promise to "stop provocations", since it is possible to respond adequately to the attempts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to take control of the rebellious Donbass only with the use of military force. However, it must be transferred to the front line, and this will immediately qualify as an invasion. And this, in fact, will be exactly the invasion from the legal point of view.

But this paradox is by no means insoluble.

There is a proven legal conflict that helps to remove all obstacles in order to provide a legal opportunity to suppress provocations.

This is the recognition of the statehood of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics by Russia.

After that, Moscow signs treaties of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance with Donetsk and Lugansk.

They are the basis for the deployment of Russian military bases on the territory of the republics, which will become the guarantor of the security of the states recognized by Russia.

Actually, this is exactly the procedure that was carried out on September 17, 2008.

Russia signed agreements with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Thus, the likelihood of aggression against these states by Georgia was completely stopped.

Naturally, as then, if the DPR and LPR are recognized, accusations of Russia's violation of international law will follow. But this very right is so diverse that it is very, very easy to find in it legal grounds for declaring republics as sovereign states. In 2008, Dmitry Medvedev, who was then president of the Russian Federation, was guided by the provisions of the UN Charter, the 1970 Declaration on the Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations between States, and the 1975 Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe.

Russian political scientist Sergei Markov believes that recognition may take place as early as January next year. In his opinion, during a two-hour conversation with the American President, Vladimir Putin made it clear to his interlocutor. And that is why Joe Biden's statements, made after the conversation, gave hope that Washington would make efforts to pacify the Ukrainian side. The words that the United States intends to promote the Minsk agreements give reason to think so.

It is quite obvious that Valery Gerasimov would not have come out with such a loud declaration in front of representatives of foreign states, if what was said were not based on a detailed action plan. And of course, every word, without a doubt, was coordinated with the Kremlin, and it is quite possible that the Kremlin itself instructed the Chief of the General Staff to warn Ukraine against rash actions. By the way, Vladimir Putin's statement that what is happening in Donbass is very reminiscent of genocide gives a complete picture of how seriously the Russian leader assesses the war in Ukraine and its consequences.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has organized a provocation in the Sea of ​​Azov.

The Ukrainian warship, which bears the name "Donbass", came close to the Kerch Strait and, without entering the Russian territorial waters, lay on the opposite course.

The FSB Public Relations Center qualified the incident: "The actions of the crew of the Ukrainian ship are regarded as provocative and posing a threat to the safety of navigation."

Well, if the Ukrainian military cannot pull themselves together on land or at sea, then forcing Ukraine to peace will become an inevitable measure of influence.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.