Relations between Russia on the one hand and Ukraine and the West on the other are witnessing unprecedented tensions, which have reached their peak for weeks, amid mutual accusations and threats.
We are facing tension within a complex crisis that carries within it more than one dimension, and each dimension is related to one of the parties to this crisis.
Washington finds the escalation of renewed tension over Ukraine an opportunity to constrain Russia and impede its restoration of its relations with European capitals, especially Paris and Berlin, and to prevent the operation of the "Nord Stream 2" gas pipeline, and to prevent Russia from allying with China by imposing more sanctions on it.
Moscow’s display of its military capabilities is not something new, and it is certain that these moves lately differ greatly from the military exercises that Russia usually carries out, and their importance today comes in the context of sending a message to Kiev in the first place, warning against military action against Donbass
As for Ukraine, its interests lie in restoring its territorial integrity, and it is working to exploit the momentum and a new level of support from the United States and other Western countries, and there is a desire by Kiev to show itself to the new American administration that it is facing Russia, with the aim of obtaining more support, And if Kiev manages to lure Russia to launch an attack inside Ukrainian territory, it may succeed in stopping the operation of the "Nord Stream 2" project, which will end Ukraine's role as a transit country for Russian gas to Europe.
But what is certain today is that it is not in Ukraine’s interest to transform the frozen conflict in the east of the country into a hot one, because it will inevitably be the loser. However, Kiev uses heating in this file from time to time to direct internal and multi-directional messages, and the predicament of the eastern Ukraine crisis will remain as long as it lasts. Moscow has not yet decided on a drastic step to annex the Donbass republics;
Donetsk and Lugansk (unrecognized), as it did with Crimea 7 years ago, for fear of further damage to its relations with Western countries.
Moscow’s display of its military capabilities is not something new, and it is certain that these moves lately differ greatly from the military exercises that Russia usually carries out, and their importance today comes in the context of sending a message to Kiev in the first place, warning against military action against Donbass, especially after the Nagorno-Kara scenario. Bagh, after repeated Russian talk and warnings of preparations for a Ukrainian attack on the east of the country, where Russian-backed separatists are in control.
But Moscow today does not want a large-scale war;
The war in eastern Ukraine has been costly for Russia over the past seven years, and a comprehensive renewal of this war will not be in Russia's interest, will waste huge resources Moscow needs, and will exacerbate Russia's problems with the European Union and America.
It is worth noting that most of the residents of Donbass in the Donetsk and Lugansk (unrecognized) republics today hold Russian citizenship, with a common border of 400 km between Russia and the Donbass republics, factors that do not apply to the Armenian and Azerbaijani crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh, when compared with the crisis of Eastern Ukraine, and it is also unlikely that Turkey or Israel will interfere in the conflict on the side of Ukraine against Russia, as happened in the second Karabakh war when the two countries supported Azerbaijan against Armenia, but it is likely that they will continue to sell weapons in the framework of the opportunity to earn money.
In 2008, Russia took military action in Georgia after its then-president Mikhail Saakashvili sent troops to fight the separatists, and at the end of last November, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service compared the current situation in Ukraine with the situation in Georgia in 2008, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called not to Making the same mistake that Saakashvili made, reminding him that it cost him dearly.
What distinguishes the situation of Ukraine today from Georgia in 2008 is the combat readiness that NATO reinforces in Ukraine day after day, in addition to European warnings against Russia's direct entry into the war in eastern Ukraine.
Among all this is Europe, which does not have an independent defense policy and is separate from Washington’s policy, and the European bloc fears for its security, and a new wave of asylum (especially since there is today interference between the factors of Western-Russian tension in the crisis between Belarus and Poland over asylum and immigration, and Western accusations against Minsk and Moscow using this card against it), and Europe also needs Russian gas supplies.
Although all scenarios are on the table in light of this escalation and the corresponding escalation and threats, the comprehensive war scenario seems to be postponed now, and the conflict remains within the framework of small wars such as the Nagorno-Karabakh scenario, the Crimean scenario, and the Georgia scenario, with proxy wars continuing here and there on more than one level and in more than one Front, regional and international.
At a time when the West is increasingly concerned about Russia's intentions and plans for a possible invasion of Ukraine, US President Joe Biden confirmed last Friday that it would make it "very difficult" for Russia to launch any invasion of Ukraine, which has warned of a possible large-scale Russian attack next month. On Friday, Biden told reporters that he was preparing a "package of initiatives" aimed at protecting Ukraine from a Russian attack, while Kiev and Washington accused Moscow of massing troops on the border and preparing for an invasion.
And Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said earlier last Friday in Parliament - citing intelligence reports - that Russia has mobilized more than 94,000 soldiers near the Ukrainian border, and may prepare for a large-scale military attack at the end of next January.
Moscow, in turn, accuses Ukraine and the United States of destabilizing and indicates that Kiev may be preparing to carry out an attack in eastern Ukraine. Kiev denies this.
"We have made it clear to the Kremlin that we will respond, particularly through a series of high-impact economic measures that we have refrained from in the past," US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said after a NATO meeting in Riga, Latvia.
It should be noted that Russia had previously reinforced its military forces on the Ukrainian border last April, and it later became clear that the goal was to strengthen political and diplomatic pressure cards, as Russia re-withdrawn those reinforcements shortly after the announcement of US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin held a summit between them, and it is not excluded today that the same scene will be repeated with the continuation of talks on holding another summit between the two presidents.
Some experts say that Kiev angered Russia by using the Bayraktar drones that it imported from Turkey, where the latest Russian military reinforcement comes after the Ukrainian army published footage in which it said that it was the first use of a Turkish-made drone against the separatists in the east of the country, especially after a recent appearance in political circles. Ukrainian about repeating in the east of the country the scenario of Azerbaijan regaining the bulk of its territory in the Nagorno-Karabakh war last year.
Also, after Putin accused the West of ignoring Russia's "red lines" by conducting exercises in the Black Sea and sending modern weapons to Kiev, demanding "legal guarantees" from NATO not to expand to the east.
It remains that what is confirmed by the threats of the United States, which were limited to threatening sweeping economic sanctions that might paralyze the Russian economy, and did not include any threat to defend Ukraine militarily;
He rules out the scenario of a comprehensive war, and that Kiev may be left alone, as happened with Georgia in 2008, if it wanted to implement a military scenario in the east of the country in Donbass.