What if omicron was the variant that science was waiting for? These are the scenarios that can cause

• Ómicron health: what we know (and what we don't) about the variant that worries the most and its possible origins

• Direct Latest news about the coronavirus

The arrival of omicron, the new variant of coronavirus first identified in Botswana and South Africa and now present in Europe, the United States and many other countries around the world, has been greeted with great

.

Many nations have closed their borders preventing the landing of flights from South Africa and other African regions, a choice criticized by many scientists (and by the WHO) because the closing attitude does not encourage countries to quickly communicate the new variants if they are later punished. with insulation.

The World Health Organization immediately identified omicron as a

and today the question still lacking a clear answer is: will vaccines also defend us from omicron?

The effect of omicron on the pandemic

The truth is that the arrival of omicron is not necessarily bad news. The effect of omicron in the course of the pandemic will depend on

: its

, its

induced by the vaccine and its

, that is, whether it will cause a more serious disease.

If omicron were found to spread easily from host to host, evading neutralizing antibodies and causing severe disease, the situation would be truly complex and the consequences could be dire.

"But if omicron turns out to be a super contagious variant that causes mild symptoms, then it could also be good news, just in time for Christmas," writes

in

.

Because we will live with Covid

It is now the opinion of many that

. Vaccinating all of humanity does not seem easily feasible. Even rich countries that have had large quantities of vaccines available have not been able to immunize 100% of the population, given the large number of people who reject the vaccine for fear or ideological reasons.

The

: they still reduce the risk of hospitalization, serious illness or death (although with lower percentages compared to the Alpha variant), but they

. In addition, its

(3-4 months) compared to the time needed to vaccinate the population, so it is practically impossible to always have the right moment between high percentages of immunized individuals coinciding with a high incidence of the virus.

Finally, even if all humans on Earth gain immunity to vaccines or infections, the virus could withdraw to one of its animal hosts and then return to mutated humans, in what scientists call 'reverse zoonosis'.

Unable to eradicate the virus

Many scientists have gotten their hands on the future of the

.

No one now believes that eradicating

is a realistic goal.

Even

, an immunological adviser to the White House in early October, had stated: "It will be very difficult, at least in the near future and perhaps never, to eliminate this highly communicable virus."

"Since this enemy cannot be defeated, we would all have a better chance of survival if armed with a sling rather than a cannon," writes

again.

What's going on in South Africa?

The first data from

on omicron infection reported cases with mild and less severe symptoms than Delta (although it should be remembered that the African population is decidedly younger than the European average and therefore may be less susceptible to complications caused by

).

However, the spread of the

in South Africa is causing an

. The latest bulletin speaks of 11,535 infections and 44 deaths, with an increase in hospitalizations (274 more patients in the hospital in one day) and an increase in infections of 365% compared to last week. Cases of reinfection are also reported.

According to a preliminary study, the risk of reinfection in this wave of omicron is

, but it is not yet known if the immune leak also involves those vaccinated and it will be necessary to wait for the tests to be carried out of neutralization.

In Europe, so far there have been no serious cases or deaths from the

, although there are only about 60 confirmed cases.

Hope: lighter and more transmissible

If omicron actually turned out to be

. But if it turns out to be both "smoother" and

might even be excellent news.

.

"Ómicron could also mark the end of pandemic fear", comments

, president of the Italian Society of Virology, "and become the beginning of the phase awaited by the scientific community around the world: a peaceful relationship between man and the

. If the new variant proves to be really more transmissible, but less aggressive, the

.

Immune escape

"Ómicron could prevail because it replicates faster in its human hosts and spreads more efficiently among them, thus becoming more contagious or because it evades acquired immunity, infection or vaccine more skillfully," explains

to

from the Rockefeller Foundation Pandemic Prevention Institute.

Talking about an immune leak can sound alarming - the idea of ​​starting over after two years of hard fighting the virus doesn't seem very reassuring. After getting vaccinated, no one would want to be told that you are still susceptible. However, a variant that causes reinfection but does not lead to a serious illness requiring ventilation may not be as serious.

"If we find that omicron avoids vaccines but ultimately causes minor disease, we are probably heading in the right direction," says

, biostatistician at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

The aim of the virus: coexistence

The goal of viruses, especially respiratory viruses such as

, is to infect as many hosts as possible, taking advantage of the organism to multiply and continue to circulate.

It is not advisable for the virus to eliminate the host behaving aggressively (he too would die): it is better to seek the

that allows him to survive.

"The fewer symptoms or even no symptoms", points out Arnaldo Caruso, who is also professor of microbiology and clinical microbiology at the University of Brescia, "the more possibilities a virus has to be transmitted, to continue its course and to prevail in its most contagious form. , faster but smoother, in all other variants. This is perhaps what is happening, although to date the data available is few and there is still everything to verify and understand. "

Will we lose acquired immunity?

However, it is possible that with a super contagious and at the same time super soft omicron, those who become infected do not develop enough immunity to defend themselves against further infection.

to produce as many antibodies as would be developed against severe disease.

Studies on the subject have not been univocal and there is research showing that a mild infection does not necessarily exclude a robust immune response and

.

Coronavirus like a cold

The hypothesis that the

could turn into a cold over the years, becoming an endemic disease, has been raised several times by researchers.

Last January, an article published in Science based on the study of other human coronaviruses predicted that

one day become endemic.

If SarsCoV2 followed in the footsteps of other coronaviruses responsible for the common cold, the researchers concluded, the infection could decrease significantly.

According to forecasts, it could strike for the first time within 3-5 years of age with modest symptoms and then reappear in adulthood, but even more mildly.

In other words,

That is, it will be a pathogen that

.

Waiting for the data

To date, Delta has proven to be an ideal variant: transmissible enough to dominate the more dangerous variants such as

, but overall its virulence can still be controlled by vaccination.

Only in the coming weeks will it be possible to know if

will have its charge of positivity (and it would be a nice Christmas present) or if it will prove to be a variant of "immune escape" capable, among other things, of causing more serious diseases.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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