In the event of a threat, Ukraine cannot count on security guarantees from NATO: all that remains for it is the vague wording “comprehensive support”.
Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced this at a press conference on December 1.
“Ukraine, as a valuable partner of NATO, can count on our all-round support, while in relation to the members of the alliance we are talking about security guarantees and collective defense,” he said in Riga.
So it goes.
Stoltenberg, of course, promised that "any future invasion or aggression against Ukraine will have a high cost, economic and political consequences for Russia."
But we all understand that Russia has been living under the yoke of sanctions for more than a year and somehow has not collapsed into oblivion: everything is in order with Nord Stream 2, and trains go to Crimea on the bridge, and Muscovites are eating their last hedgehog ...
This, in fact, is a signal for Ukraine: there is no money, but you are holding on.
And you have to hold on. The internal crisis in Ukraine is now tending to a local maximum, although there is no need to talk about the coup d'état announced by Zelensky. Nevertheless, his power is not particularly stable, and over the past seven years, Bankova has already understood: in any incomprehensible situation, start a war in Donbass. This is practically the only spiritual bond of the Ukrainian society, which allows you to somehow get together and answer the questions "Who is to blame?" and "What to do?" Who is guilty? Naturally, separatists and Russians. What to do? Weave camouflage nets and transfer money to the army via SMS.
According to the data of the Russian Foreign Ministry announced the other day, the Ukrainian army has already drawn 125 thousand people to the demarcation line in the Donbass - this is half of its entire composition.
The presence there of heavy equipment prohibited by the Minsk agreements is regularly reported in the reports of the OSCE mission.
The Foreign Ministry made several interesting comments on this matter.
“We simply have no right to exclude the possibility that the Kiev regime will break into a military adventure.
All this creates a direct threat to the security of the Russian Federation.
President Putin spoke about this on November 18 at the expanded board of our ministry, and he stressed that we do not need conflicts, but if the West cannot hold Ukraine, but, on the contrary, encourages it, of course, we will take all the necessary steps to ensure reliable security, ”said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov commented on the recent "reservation" of Vladimir Putin, who - clearly not coincidentally - called the DPR and LPR "not yet recognized republics." According to Peskov, the question of their prospects is still open: “There
has never been
such recognition (DPR and LPR. -
A. D.
), they remain self-proclaimed republics. But we see that the process of settling the internal Ukrainian conflict is dragging out, in many respects it is reaching a dead end. Therefore, it is generally difficult to predict what prospects these republics will have ”.
All this adds up to the following picture: another crisis in Donbass is more than likely.
It is also quite likely that Russia is ready to take certain steps to resolve the situation on the front line in the event of its aggravation.
But Ukraine will not wait for military assistance.
In this scenario, there will, of course, be sanctions, there will be expressions of concern, maybe even a couple of diplomats will be expelled (and then returned back).
But there will be no big war, there will be no defense.
Poor Ukraine.
She officially renounced her non-aligned status, rushed her whole body towards NATO and the EU, but did not get there or there.
It has no chance of joining NATO at all: states with unresolved territorial, political or ethnic conflicts are not accepted into the alliance, and under the current government, such conflicts will certainly be in Ukraine, even if there are Russian border guards on the borders of Donbass and not a single shot is fired anymore. will not.
Actually, this is what the residents of the "not yet recognized" republics dream of.
Now Ukraine can not lose everything in general in only one way: to hear the signal of the NATO secretary general, to hear the signals from Putin and Lavrov, and to abandon the idea of developing an offensive in Donbass.
But then Zelensky will be left alone with internal problems.
Fearfully?
Yes, perhaps that is also scary.
The main problem of Ukraine is that during the entire period of its independence there was not a single leader of the country who, when making important decisions, was guided not by personal interests, but by state interests.
Zelenskiy will have to choose between a bad and a very bad option, and he will be guided by the only question: under what scenario does he have a chance to retain power.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.