Arrived Friday, December 3 in the Arab-Persian Gulf for an express visit to the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Emmanuel Macron embarked on a tour focused on economic relations, but also the positioning of France on the political, diplomatic and strategic plan around several regional issues.
After concluding the sale to the Emirates of 80 Rafale, the French president is due to travel to Doha, Qatar, and then meet the very controversial principle Saudi heir, Mohammed bin Salman.
In Jeddah, the French president should in particular defend his wish to involve the kingdom in the revival of Lebanon.
Contacted by France 24, Sébastien Boussois, political science researcher, specialist in the Middle East associated with CECID (Center for International Cooperation and Development Studies), returned to the relations between Paris and the three Gulf States concerned by the visit of Emmanuel Macron.
The specialist, who recently published a book entitled "The United Arab Emirates conquering the world" (Max Milo), discusses the strategic issues of such a visit around regional issues such as the crisis in Lebanon, but also the Qatar's negotiating role with the Taliban.
France 24: What are diplomatic relations today between Paris and the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia?
Sébastien Boussois: Relations between France and these three countries are generally good relations of strategic partnership or relations of political and economic interest. These are relations between Paris and three major players in "hard power": they are energy suppliers, customers in terms of armaments and high technology, but also players in security and military cooperation in the famous fight against terrorism.
If we detail, however, the relationships are more evolving. In Nicolas Sarkozy's time, relations were very good with Qatar, with the development, between 2007 and 2012, of a special relationship between Paris and Doha. This evolved from the time of François Hollande (2012-2017) and focused on Saudi Arabia, with the same type of relationship: both an energy supplier and a very good customer in terms of high technology and of French weapons. This is also how Jean-Yves Le Drian cut his teeth as Minister of Foreign Affairs, he was one of the biggest arms salesmen of all the foreign ministers of the last 20 or even 30. years.
When Emmanuel Macron arrived, he wanted to balance the links with these three powers to try to keep them at bay and not to be caught in stories of influence, tensions and war linked to the Gulf crisis, during which the Emirates and Saudi Arabia have decided to ostracize Qatar and ban it from the Gulf Cooperation Council.
During the first official visits by representatives of these three states to the Elysee Palace, it was Mohammed ben Zayed (for the United Arab Emirates) and Emir Al-Thani (for Qatar) who were received and things really slipped , probably because of this obsessive quest to fight terrorism. Seeing that Saudi Arabia and the Emirates were a bulwark against terrorism in the Middle East, Emmanuel Macron increasingly leaned in favor of Abu Dhabi. So much so that, in recent years, from all the last trips and all the last bilateral meetings, we remember the meetings between Emmanuel Macron and Mohammed ben Zayed (the last having taken place last September at the castle of Fontainebleau, Editor's note).
Emmanuel Macron sees Mohammed ben Zayed as a military man who seeks to stabilize the Middle East well beyond his zone of influence and considers that the choices made by the Emirates are the right ones to stabilize the region despite the end of the democratic processes.
France also has a military base in Abu Dhabi, which is extremely important. The relationship is therefore very good: it's economic business, the sale of weapons. We are clearly positioning ourselves in the defense of the vision of the Middle East sold by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi: a destabilization of countries where there were democratic transitions close to the Muslim Brotherhood, a competition for wars against internal rebellions supported by the Iran (as in Yemen). Incidentally, we are happy to be able to sell 80 Rafale, as a form of revenge against Australia, except that the sale of submarines to Australia is less problematic in absolute terms than that of Rafale and helicopters to Abu Dhabi.
The difficulty is that the Emirates have succeeded with extraordinary talent in building a respectable, attractive, playful and educational image, which makes Dubai and the United Arab Emirates pass as the Gulf countries closest to our way of life, which would include this what France is, what the security issues are for France, and would position itself much closer to Paris than its other neighbors.
Emmanuel Macron is the first Western leader to officially meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, widely boycotted since the Jamal Khashoggi affair.
What message does this send?
Beyond the relations and the classic military-industrial context, there are some gnashing of teeth.
Indeed, as much the Emir al-Thani and Mohammed ben Zayed are appreciated and have a very little tarnished image, as much Mohammed ben Salman (MBS) drags saucepans, and that makes things really more complicated.
By the time he arrived at the White House, Joe Biden decreed that the United States intermediary would become King Salman again: it was a strong act.
President Macron has decided to see MBS, which is also a form of cockfight where Emmanuel Macron does not despair of bringing the main heir to reason.
But this is not necessarily obvious because he is a character with an erratic and very unstable policy, who has made a lot of mistakes in a short period of time.
It is part of the personality of Emmanuel Macron.
He had already brought in Donald Trump, it didn't work;
he also did it with Vladimir Putin, it didn't work.
In any case, as it is, MBS will be the next king of Saudi Arabia.
But today, Emmanuel Macron remains in this idea, quite egotistical, of trying to bring to mind rather particular leaders.
>> To read - Khashoggi case: the international forfeiture of Mohammed ben Salman
01:14
The crisis in Lebanon must also be discussed with Saudi Arabia.
What is Emmanuel Macron's strategy?
During the entire Hariri period, Saudi Arabia was a major supporter: the objective was to keep Saad Hariri in power, Riyadh supported and financed the regime against Hezbollah and Iran.
We are in a rivalry and a relocation: Lebanon is a war by proxy.
Emmanuel Macron tried to save Lebanon, in vain.
He knows that in reality, it is not the former mandatory power that will be able to do something to save Lebanon, neither financially nor politically.
On the other hand, he knows that regional rivalries are extremely strong between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates and, on the other side, Iran and Qatar.
So in this bitter struggle for regional influences, they are the only ones who can fund a rescue (which, in any case, will not change anything as long as the system remains so endemic corrupt).
Will Emmanuel Macron's visit to Qatar be an opportunity to return to Qatar's role in negotiations with the Taliban?
The whole world has praised Qatar's role in the Afghanistan dossier, both its diplomacy since 2018 and humanitarian operations (half, or even 60%, of repatriations have been carried out by Qatar Airways to save Americans and nearby personnel. Americans and Westerners). In the resumption of recent negotiations and in trying to get out of this inextricable situation of Afghanistan, it is good to recall the role of Qatar, but Qatar has already done a lot.
To prevent the Eastern powers (especially China and Russia) from taking too big a step in the region, France - like other Western countries which have less and less hold there - is trying to give back their place to regional powers. considered acceptable.
This is particularly the case of Qatar and the Emirates which, moreover, are two countries considered as powers of negotiation, mediation, geopolitical micro-confetti which, for their survival, have the habit of trying not to get angry. with no one and therefore show proactive diplomacy, which is very important for negotiations and attempts at dialogue of this type.
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