The Institute for the Economy and the Climate (I4CE) is publishing this Thursday a new edition of the panorama of climate finance which analyzes the investments of the State, companies and individuals which contribute to the energy transition.
In 2020, despite the health crisis linked to COvid, these climate investments amounted to 45 billion euros.
That is 10% more than in 2019. In progress therefore, but still insufficient.
I4CE still lacks 13 to 15 billion euros per year.
Progress should continue in 2021 and 2022, driven by the recovery plan, of which 30 billion euros are allocated to ecological transition.
But the I4CE think-tank draws attention above all to the aftermath, when the recovery plan will have ended.
Tell me how you are investing today and I will tell you if you are on the right climate trajectory.
This is the whole idea of the Panorama of climate finance published every year end since 2014 by the Institute for the Economy and the Climate (I4CE), a French think-tank specializing in climate economics.
The latest edition is published this Thursday and scrutinizes the 2020 investments in France for the climate.
Both those of the State and those of companies or individuals.
This on a very specific perimeter which is that of energy ”, specifies Benoît Leguet, CEO of I4CE.
A big chunk all the same since it includes investments in transport [the purchase of an electric vehicle by a private individual for example], the energy renovation of buildings, or the production of energy, that is to say three key sectors to be decarbonized. in France to achieve carbon neutrality.
45 billion euros in climate investments in 2020
Thus, in 2020, within the scope chosen for this panorama, climate investments reached 45 billion euros. “That is an increase of 10% compared to 2019, notes Maxime Ledez, researcher at I4CE and co-author of the study. Since 2011, when they reached 27.9 billion euros, these climate investments have only increased year after year. So including in 2020, despite a context very largely marked by the health crisis.
“This 10% increase contrasts moreover with the 7.8% decrease in total investments in France,” recalls Maxime Ledez.
And even more with the 32% collapse in fossil fuel investments.
These will be established in 2020 at the same level as climate investments.
So 45 billion euros.
"Purchases of high-emitting cars, which represent the largest share of these fossil investments, have decreased under the combined effects of the closure of points of sale during the health crisis and the tightening of European regulations on new cars", explains I4CE.
The almost total shutdown of aviation activity has also forced airlines and airport managers to reduce their investments to preserve their cash flow.
An optimism to be tempered ...
However, I4CE welcomes this 10% increase in climate investments with measured optimism. "It focused on electric and plug-in hybrid cars, while investments in the energy renovation of housing, in the rail network, public transport or even the production of renewable energies are stable or down slightly", thus indicates Maxime Ledez.
Not so bad as this health crisis has impacted the French economy. "The confinements weighed on the budgets of public transport operators, who sold fewer tickets and subscriptions, energy companies [who saw the price of electricity drop] but also many households due to the economic slowdown. , illustrates Maxime Ledez. Under these conditions, project leaders could have been forced to reduce their climate investments. "The emergency measures taken by the public authorities have made it possible to minimize these threats", continues the researcher of I4CE. These are short-time working to stabilize household income and consumption, loans guaranteed by the State to ensure the financing of companies and allow them to have cash,subsidies and repayable advances to local authorities and transport operators to compensate for their losses ... "In addition, households and businesses have anticipated a rather short crisis in 2020 and have not abandoned their investment projects", adds I4CE in its overview .
13 to 15 billion euros per year that are still missing
However, even at 45 billion euros, the account is not there. According to the calculations of the think-tank, there is a lack of 13 to 15 billion euros of climate investments, public and private, per year. "It's a minimum," insists Maxime Ledez. The National Low-Carbon Strategy, the official French roadmap towards carbon neutrality in 2050, sets the intermediate objective of reducing our greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% in 2030 compared to 1990. “We are did about half, ”says Benoit Léguet. But last April, the European Union revised its 2030 target upwards and is now targeting a 55% reduction in its GHGs. Without going so far as to align itself with Brussels, France will also have to revise its objective upwards "and therefore further increase its climate investments", continues the CEO of I4CE.
Of course, the latter should continue to grow this year and in 2022, driven among other things by the recovery plan. Of the 100 billion planned to help the country recover from the Cvovid-19 crisis, 30 are dedicated to the ecological transition, in particular to the acceleration of the energy renovation of buildings and the electrification of the vehicle fleet. "Not enough, there again, to fill the deficit", estimates Maxime Ledez who quotes several sectors which showed too important delays to be caught up in the years to come. Starting with the renovation of buildings. "Even if households carry out more energy work in their homes, very few undertake the comprehensive and efficient renovations that should be necessary, in particular because public aid does not encourage them to do so", he indicates.Proof therefore that it is not all about the amount.
The post-2022 question
This is the whole message then that I4CE is sending to the 2022 presidential candidates: that of developing now a “climate strategy for public finances”, integrating both the need to increase public funding, but also regulation. and support for project leaders.
Benoit Leguet draws particular attention to the post-2022 period, "when the recovery plan will expire, at the same time as the European funding which makes it possible".
The need for public financing for the climate will not have disappeared by then.
Above all, the context could be less favorable than it is today. In any case, I4CE sees new tensions appear. "In public transport, for example, demand has still not recovered to pre-covid levels, which is straining the revenues and self-financing capacities of communities and network managers," Maxime Ledez recalls. The increase in the price and / or delivery times for certain materials - wood in construction or steel and semiconductors for renewable energies and electric vehicles - is also likely to disrupt the pursuit of climate investments. . To this must also be added the surge in energy prices at the end of the year. On the one hand, this factor encourages the search for energy efficiency and the development of renewable energies,starts the I4CE researcher. On the other hand, this surge in prices weighs on the budget of households and SMEs. »Which does not favor climate investments.
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