Relations between Kiev and Moscow have been witnessing escalating tension for nearly 7 years, due to Russia's annexation of the Crimea and its support for the separatists loyal to it in eastern Ukraine. However, the extent of tension in the past few months and weeks is different from all previous times.
Kiev constantly warns its Western allies of a large Russian military presence on its eastern borders, and that the Crimea has turned into a Russian military base since 2014, which it considers a threat to it and the security of the European continent, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov considered that the movements of troops and military equipment near the border It aims to "ensure the security of Russia and does not pose any threat to Ukraine".
Kyiv still hopes, 7 years after the Ukrainian crisis, that the United States of America is ready today to play an active role in the frozen peace process, and perhaps join the Normandy Quartet, which is leading the negotiations, and includes Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia.
A few days ago, Peskov denied allegations that his country's army had carried out a military attack on Ukraine. A Kremlin spokesman told reporters in Moscow that his country had no plans to launch an attack on any country, and "we have repeatedly emphasized that we do not have any aggressive plans against any country."
The spokesman considered that it was wrong to link the maneuvers conducted by Russian soldiers with such plans, in response to what the head of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Kirillo Budanov said, that Russia is planning to launch an attack against his country in early 2022, noting that Moscow has mobilized more than 92,000 of its forces around Ukraine's borders are preparing to launch an offensive by the end of January or the beginning of next February.
Ukraine, the former Soviet republic, has not calmed down since it witnessed massive protests 7 years ago, and was known as the European Square protests, after which the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown, and the country was divided into a pro-Western party and another pro-Moscow. They declared accession to it, as well as a referendum in the east of the country in the areas of what is known as the Donbas, and also announced the establishment of new unilateral republics, which were not recognized by the Kiev authorities.
Kiev still hopes, 7 years after the Ukrainian crisis, that the United States of America is ready today to play an active role in the frozen peace process, and perhaps join the Normandy Quartet, which leads the negotiations, and includes Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia, especially after the arrival of an American administration. She is new to the White House, and has access to all the details of the Ukrainian crisis, as Kiev has maintained its position, and has not surrendered to the Russian conditions to end the war in the east of the country, at a time when relations between Russia and the West have reached their lowest levels, according to the comment of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Ukrainian governments have failed since 2014 to find a solution that ends the Crimean crisis and the 7-year conflict in the east of the country, and returns the region to full Ukrainian control, while Ukraine continues to seek access to European structures and NATO.
In addition to Ukrainian concern that Russia does not seek peace after Moscow's decision in 2019 to facilitate the acquisition of Russian citizenship for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians living in the eastern regions, which reduces the chances of these regions returning to full Ukrainian control.
It must be taken into account that the contribution that Turkey made to Azerbaijan in the battles to regain the Nagorno-Karabakh region fueled the conversations among many Ukrainian circles about the chances of implementing a similar scenario to restore the out-of-control lands of the Donbas region, albeit partially, "in principle".
However, the situation in Ukraine and the South Caucasus between Azerbaijan and Armenia is marred by many differences, and a direct comparison between the two cases is unrealistic, but Azerbaijan's victory stirred up the stagnant waters in another conflict between the space of the former Soviet Union.
It is worth noting that the residents of Donbass in the (unrecognized) republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, most of them today hold Russian citizenship, with 400 km of common borders between Russia and the Donbass republics, factors that do not apply to the crisis of Armenia and Azerbaijan when compared with the crisis of eastern Ukraine. It is unlikely that Turkey or Israel will intervene in the conflict on the side of Ukraine, as happened in the second Karabakh war, but it is likely that they will continue to sell weapons in the framework of the opportunity to earn money.
Moscow’s display of its military capabilities is not something new, and it is certain that these recent moves are very different from the military exercises that Russia usually carries out, and their importance today comes in the context of sending a message to Kiev in the first place, after repeated Russian talk and warnings of preparations for a Ukrainian attack on the east of the country This is where Russian-backed separatists dominate.
A similar thing happened in August 2008 in the South Ossetia region of Georgia, where the Russian newspaper "Vizglad" reported that Russian services had revealed information at the time, that Georgia was preparing to invade South Ossetia, when the Russian peacekeeping forces were stationed, after assurances received by the Georgian President At the time, Mikheil Saakashvili with Washington's support for him.
The Georgian experience has shown that keeping the military forces in advance in the frozen and expected conflict areas is more effective than bringing them in later from their permanent places of deployment, and the Russian military buildup today may be on the border with Ukraine near the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in the Donbas (unrecognized) in A routine training framework, with the possibility of its urgent use in the event of any change in the field situation, in a scenario similar to the case of the South Ossetia region with Georgia.
It remains to say that what distinguishes the situation of Ukraine today from Georgia in 2008, is the combat readiness that NATO reinforces in Ukraine day after day, in addition to European warnings of the consequences of Russia's direct entry into the war in eastern Ukraine, amid escalating tension between the West and Russia over two main issues, The war in eastern Ukraine and the migrant file between Belarus and the European Union, British Army Chief of Staff Nicholas Carter has previously warned that there are greater risks than at any time since the Cold War, threatening a war between the West and Russia in the absence of traditional diplomatic mechanisms.