The total number of deaths in France in the first half of 2021, the second year of the Covid-19 epidemic, was up 7.3% compared to the same period of 2019, INSEE said Thursday, after an increase of 9.1% for the whole of 2020.

These figures relate to deaths from all causes, but the impact of the coronavirus can be refined by comparison with the number of deaths "expected" in theory if the pandemic had not occurred, explained INSEE.

"47,000 more people than expected in the absence of a pandemic have died"

Because even without the epidemic, the aging of the population - and the fact that 2020, leap, had one day more than 2019 - would have naturally resulted in a slight increase in mortality.

In the end, the public statistics institute estimates that "47,000 more people than expected in the absence of a pandemic died" in 2020, an increase of 7.5% (instead of 9.1%) likely to be attributed to the Covid.

For the first half of 2021, the analysis of statistics on all deaths clearly shows the “long third wave” from the beginning of January to the end of May, notes INSEE.

Decreasing life expectancy

The excess mortality of those over 75 is however down compared to the previous wave, and even more for those over 85. This attenuation is explained by the beneficial effects of vaccination - the oldest having been protected the first -, but also by a possible "harvest effect": among the elderly or very old whose death was statistically expected at the start of 2021 , a significant number was swept away by the Covid in 2020. This automatically reduces the number of deaths in this age group this year.

In 2020, the excess mortality observed at older ages automatically reduced life expectancy at birth, underlines INSEE: it fell by six months for women and seven months for men.

Logically, this drop is even more marked in regions hard hit by Covid-19 last year: life expectancy has dropped by almost two years for men in Ile-de-France.

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Coronavirus: The decline in life expectancy could be "very marked in Ile-de-France"

  • INSEE

  • The elderly

  • Covid 19

  • Health

  • Coronavirus

  • Mortality

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