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Numerous studies document that



are not neutralizing and immunity decreases over time. A recently published study in the

British Medical Journal

conducted on

80,000 people in Israel

, one of the first countries in the world to start the vaccination campaign, but which saw a resumption of infections in December 2020, confirms this trend.

The study has found that the

Pfizer vaccine

provides excellent protection in the first weeks after vaccination, but

the risk of contagion for those vaccinated in all age groups begins to increase 90 days after the second dose

and increases each time. more as time goes on.

The results

The study was conducted by researchers at

Leumit Health Services

and is based on the examination of electronic medical records of 83,057 adults (

mean age 44 years

) who between May and September underwent a molecular smear at least three weeks after the second dose of vaccine and who

had never before shown signs of SarsCoV2 infection


Those who had contracted Covid before the study and those who had already received the third dose of the vaccine were excluded.

The results show that 7,973 participants

(9.6% of the total) tested positive for the swab

, almost all with

the Delta variant


The analysis shows that after the second dose of the vaccine, the positivity rate increases over time:

  • 1.3% between 21 and 89 days.

  • 2.4% between 90 and 119 days.

  • 4.6% between 120 and 149 days.

  • 10.3% between 150 and 179 days.

  • 15.5% after 180 days.

Compared to the first 90 days after the second dose of vaccine, the risk of infection is

2.37 times higher after 90-119 days

, 2.66 times higher after 120-149 days, and 2.82 times higher after 150 days.

The researchers acknowledge that the interpretation of the data is limited by the observational design of the study and that

the influence of other factors not considered in the analysis

, such as virus strain, number of family members, and density

cannot be excluded.

of population. The analysis was designed to estimate the effect of time since


on the risk of contagion and did not assess the severity of these "breakthrough" infections in terms of need for hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and mortality.

In any case, the study

was conducted in a large number of people who received the same vaccine

, so the results are robust enough to conclude that the protection induced by the two doses of



decreases with time. and the risk of contagion increases gradually after the first three months.

The results suggest that consideration of a

third dose of the vaccine

may be warranted in the

near future.

In Italy, it has just been decided to proceed with the third dose for everyone over 18 years of age at least 5 months after the second dose.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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