The effect of the terrible American-Ukrainian revelations about the military preparations of Russia is reminiscent of K.I.
Chukovsky:
"This is Byaka-Zakalyaka
Biting,
I invented it myself out of my head. "
“Why did you leave your notebook,
Have you stopped drawing? "
"I'm afraid of her!"
Although the men of Ukraine and the United States have not yet given up drawing and are talking with redoubled energy about the monstrous plans cherished in the Kremlin.
The once respectable news agency Bloomberg, which previously specialized in economic issues, finally threw the cap behind the mill (it can now be renamed Bellingcat) and published a detailed plan of the military campaign, which has to begin in January-February next year.
Although even more advanced analysts set D-Day on December 25, when all good people (Russians, of course, do not belong to them) joyfully praise Christ.
The general picture, however, does not change from this.
That Bloomberg, that other, even more reliable sources report:
1. The invasion army has 100 thousand bayonets, and this is only the beginning, then reinforcements will be required.
Since the Russian General Staff plans not a sabotage, after which the troops return to their apartments, but a full-fledged annexation, which, given the territory of Ukraine, requires a large occupation corps.
2. The campaign will begin with air and missile strikes on Ukraine, which is natural.
Since the Second World War, mass bombing has been an indispensable prelude to the deployment of an invasion force.
"June 22, exactly four o'clock", destruction of Rotterdam in May 1940, etc.
However, should the Americans not know this?
Korea, Vietnam, then everywhere.
3. The invasion ground forces will march in three columns. From the south - from Crimea to Northern Tavria. From the east - from Donbass to the left-bank Ukraine. And from the north - from Belarus, through the Pripyat swamps and Ukrainian Polesie, a blow will be delivered to Kiev, as well as to Galicia, including Lvov. At the same time, amphibious assault forces will be landed in Odessa and Nikolaev. Three columns, that is, the army groups North, Center and South (just like in 1941), will inexorably cut Ukraine into pieces.
All of this is impressive, although a number of questions remain.
The campaign, planned not by the journalists on the globe, but by the military according to the headquarters maps, would involve an invasion through the Polesye swamps, unless in case of emergency.
The capture of Odessa from the sea is, in principle, possible, but this requires confidence that NATO ships, which have proliferated in the Black Sea, will remain completely indifferent, etc.
No less interesting is the question of why the campaign is being planned right now.
Winter is not the best time of the year for war.
In the old days, hostilities were generally postponed until spring (hence the expression "for winter quarters").
Then the war became year-round - no formal or informal truce was signed.
But there is a difference between when the war is already going on and it is impossible to wait for a warm time, and when there is a choice when to start a campaign.
To fight when the days are short and frosty, and today is not very convenient.
Again, when planning a campaign in an abstract space and warm climate, you can ignore this.
But the professional soldier, not the Bellingcat-Bloomberg journalist, must take into account the additional hardships and hardships of the winter campaign.
Moreover, intelligence analysts do not explain why the Kremlin is so impatient to fight right now.
Of course, now it is already clear (and this became clear not yesterday, but much earlier) that you cannot cook porridge with today's brothers in any weather.
Just look at the corpus of statements by Zelensky, Kuleba and others.
If they all suddenly failed to hell, in Moscow they would courageously endure such an unexpected reprimand.
But meanwhile, when Zelensky and Kuleba themselves fail to hell, and when the Russian army sends them there by force, there is a considerable distance.
For nearly eight years they endured this bloody operetta - perhaps it is worth a little more patience, while the Ukrainian state itself, without external armed intervention, goes to where it has long been longed for.
Moreover, the reconstruction of Crimea, which is still far from complete, has shown that building cannot be broken and that it is a long and difficult task.
Reconstructing a Ukraine that would return to the Russian state ("Pereyaslavl Rada No. 2") is a task at least twenty times more difficult.
And not everyone at the top is willing to pay that price.
In addition to surgery, there is also conservative treatment, and so far in Moscow they have tended to the latter.
What has suddenly changed so dramatically?
Probably, the mood has changed not in Moscow, but in our brothers, and even more so in our partners, who are ready to take such a step that could cause a war, from which they fearfully refrained before.
Perhaps they now need a new Gleiwitz to defend democracy and freedom.
This is the only plausible explanation for why Bloomberg's dire warnings are needed.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.