Nicolas Beytout 8:00 a.m., November 15, 2021

Every morning, Nicolas Beytout analyzes political news and gives us his opinion.

This Monday, he is interested in the referendum for the independence of New Caledonia.

The government took, on the eve of the weekend, an essential decision for the future of our borders.

When we talk about border protection, we are of course first thinking of the problem of the thousands of migrants manipulated by Belarus and who are piling up on the Polish border.

Or, one thinks of the nagging subject of the candidates for exile who arrive in Europe from North Africa or who pass through Turkey.

We can also think of the conflict which threatens to revive with Great Britain on the question of borders with Ireland.

All these files are obviously very important, but they do not directly concern our national borders, those of our country.

Whereas, soon, the inhabitants of a territory of the Republic will have to say whether or not they want to remain French.

This territory is New Caledonia.

She must vote in a month, on December 12, by referendum.

There you go, to say once again whether they want independence or not. Attention, not autonomy, not a special statute, no: independence. Which means that if the yes wins, then France will lose a piece of territory located at the other end of the globe, an island whose geo-strategic position has recently appeared more crucial than ever. New Caledonia is in fact located in a region of the world which feels the pressure heavily from China. It is next to Australia. But what is taking place in this part of the world is the elements of a balance of power between the West (led by the United States with Australia which humiliated us in the affair of the sailors) and China. With French New Caledonia, we have an access point to this sea which is absolutely crucial.If the yes to independence were to win, in a month's time it would be a grave loss to our borders, a worrying shrinkage of our influence in the world. And, of course, politically, this cut in our national sovereignty, it would be a heavy defeat for Emmanuel Macron. He was not the one who started the affair, it is even one of the oldest and most tricky cases in the Republic. He has been hanging around since 1988, that is to say. But it is he and his government who must manage this upcoming referendum deadline. Of the third referendum, should I say ...it would be a heavy defeat for Emmanuel Macron. He was not the one who started the affair, it is even one of the oldest and most tricky cases in the Republic. He has been hanging around since 1988, that is to say. But it is he and his government who must manage this upcoming referendum deadline. Of the third referendum, should I say ...it would be a heavy defeat for Emmanuel Macron. He was not the one who started the affair, it is even one of the oldest and most tricky cases in the Republic. He has been hanging around since 1988, that is to say. But it is he and his government who must manage this upcoming referendum deadline. Of the third referendum, should I say ...


Because there have already been two previous referendums, and always on independence.

Exactly, and each time, the no to independence won.

Each time, France has been able to keep its borders and stay at home in this territory.

But each time, the separatists (mainly the Kanaks) obtained the right to vote again.

It's a delight of democracy there: when the separatists lose a ballot, come on, we vote again.

It must be said that in the two previous consultations, the yes was not very far from winning: 43.3% the first time, 46.7% the second, at this rate, and wear and tear, the majority was at hand.

And do we have projections for a month from now?

Yes, it's almost over.

The separatists will lose, a third time.

In fact, their position has deteriorated significantly over the past year.

The FLNKS, the Kanak party, is in power over the Caillou (as Caledonia is nicknamed), but the local government is overtaken by strikes, violence, and it is unable to choose a leader.

Aware that victory was going to elude them, the separatists used the Covid pretext to request a postponement of the poll, and threatened to boycott the poll.

Failed, Sébastien Lecornu, the Minister in charge of Overseas Affairs confirmed it the day before the weekend, he remained firm: the vote will take place on December 12.

It will remain to be held then, to avoid the grotesque of a fourth referendum.

And to prevent our borders from being permanently blackmailed.