While rich countries fail to deliver on their pledge to increase their climate assistance to poor countries to $ 100 billion per year, UN experts believe that it will actually be necessary to spend much more "than previously estimated" , to adapt to the devastating impacts of global warming.

"The existing provisions to finance adaptation are inadequate in the face of the anticipated magnitude of climate impacts", such as the increase in droughts, floods or heat waves, says the 4,000-page draft report by IPCC experts, which must be published in early 2022.

Up to $ 1,000 billion annually

The planet has gained around 1.1 ° C since the pre-industrial era, already causing an increase in extreme weather events.

And in the current state of government commitments, the world is heading towards a warming exceeding the objectives of the Paris agreement to limit this temperature rise "well below" 2 ° C, if possible 1.5 ° C .

However, the higher the temperature, the more the costs to protect society increase, warns the IPCC.

According to the draft report, by 2050, the financing needed for adaptation could reach 1,000 billion dollars per year in certain emission scenarios.

In a + 2 ° C world, adaptation costs for Africa alone could increase by "tens of billions" each year.

The promise of 100 billion "completely exceeded"

This promise of 100 billion annually intended both to help countries reduce their emissions and adapt to the impacts of global warming seemed significant in 2009. It "is completely outdated", by science and by the reality on the ground, says Rachel Cleetus, economist with the Union of Concerned Scientists.

"When we talk about finance for after 2025, it must be in the trillions".

“Adaptation is a huge blind spot in the climate emergency,” says Mohamed Adow of the Power Shift Africa think tank.

The urgent need to protect oneself from the impacts of climate change, which will be major even with + 1.5 ° C, is largely highlighted by the IPCC draft report which also anticipates the costs of damage for each sector of society.

Ocean level could rise twice as much

In Guangzhou, in southern China, with an additional rise of 20 cm in sea level, damage could exceed 250 billion each year, without adaptation measures such as anti-submersion infrastructure.

But in a world at + 2 ° C, the ocean level should rise twice as much.

Other coastal cities like Bombay could be victims of disasters of a similar magnitude.

On average, floods will displace 2.7 million people each year in Africa by the middle of the century, harvests will decrease in quantity and quality, increasing the risks of generalized malnutrition, heat waves will weigh on health systems.

Invest in climate adaptation to avoid future costs

So funding adaptation is like an investment to avoid future costs, according to the draft report. For example, spending 1,800 billion dollars over the next ten years to deploy early warning systems, infrastructure and resilient agriculture, to restore mangroves and improve access to water “can generate a net benefit of 7,200 billion ”. “Investing in climate adaptation is a bit like insuring against an event that is bound to happen,” comments Brian O'Callaghan, researcher at the University of Oxford.

A few days ago, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) estimated that the needs to finance adaptation could rise to 300 billion per year in 2030, and 500 billion by 2050. During the COP26, the Africa group, supported by emerging economies like China and India, called on developed countries to mobilize at least 650 billion per year just for adaptation, from 2030.

At the same time, Fiji and other island states have proposed a floor that is twice as low but from 2025, says its Minister of Economy and Climate Change Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, calling on rich countries to recognize the urgency.

“When you build a house, you can't build just one wall per decade, and hope that it serves as a shelter.

We need shelter now ”.

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