A real humanitarian catastrophe is happening on the eastern borders of the EU. It is primarily to blame for the inadequate policy of the European Union - both in relation to its neighbors and in relation to the Middle East region. However, European politicians see Moscow's hand behind everything and believe that this point of view is very pragmatic.

The Belarusian-Polish border is becoming the hottest place on the map of Europe. On these cold autumn days, the border is stormed by thousands of Middle Eastern refugees, who are restrained by 15 thousand Polish security officials: border guards, police officers, special forces soldiers. On November 9 alone, the Poles registered about 600 attempts to break through the border, including three attempts to break through in large groups (from a hundred people) on the night from the ninth to the tenth. Most of the attempts end in the fact that the refugees are thrown away from the cordon and they go to the camps located in the border zone, where they suffer from hunger, hypothermia, as well as the consequences of beatings received when they met with Polish security forces.

The number of deaths in these camps is not yet said, but, most likely, very soon these figures will appear, because the vast majority of refugees do not want to return to Iraq, Syria and other countries. At the same time, the Poles categorically refuse to let them into their territory. Even in specially fenced camps, even with a further prospect of placement in EU countries. For the current ultra-right Polish authorities, the very reception of Muslim refugees will be both a blow to internal legitimacy and a symbol of weakness in front of Brussels (with which Warsaw has been involved in a "value conflict" for many months). Therefore, the Poles will fight to the death - to the point that they will open fire on migrants.

At the same time, the humanitarian crisis very quickly develops into a political one. And not only between Warsaw and Minsk (both sides accuse each other of the violence that is happening on the border), but also between Warsaw and Brussels, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other. “Lukashenka is the executor of this attack. Behind everything are Moscow and President Putin, who wants to restore the Russian Empire, which we, the Poles, are fiercely opposing, ”says not some crazy Polish activist, but Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. A number of European politicians have already begun to talk about the need to impose new sanctions against Russia - up to and including refusal to certify Nord Stream 2. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has already proposed other options. So, she called for the adoption of "sanctions against third-country airlines involved" in the story of migrants,that is, those who allegedly bring refugees to Belarusian territory. According to the German newspaper Bild, we are talking about Turkish Airlines, as well as the Russian Aeroflot.

Why did Western colleagues see the Russian hand in what was happening? There are at least four explanations.

Option one: someone missed the sanctions. The British (whose media most actively write about Russia's participation in the Belarusian transit), the same Poles and their other Russophobic brothers in Europe need some reason to promote the idea of ​​new sanctions against Moscow. The problem is that there is no reason. Again, it is impossible to bring to light the idea of ​​punishing Russia for the alleged long-standing interference in the European elections. It is difficult to come up with some new provocation from the series "The Skripal Case" or "The Poisoning of Navalny". The reasons offered by the Russian opposition from the series “Navalny suffers behind bars” or “The authorities declare foreign agents to be foreign agents” are far from the Europeans. We need something that concerns them directly, which poses a real threat to every German burgher or French monsieur.That is, a "hybrid attack" on Europe from Moscow, as some comrades have already begun to call the migration flow.

Option two: someone is afraid of the processes on the sidelines of which he remains.

The fact is that now there is, if not a rapprochement, then at least a pragmatization of relations between Moscow and Washington.

Joseph Biden finally realized what Trump had realized a few years before him: America cannot be in conflict with Russia and China at the same time.

Washington should focus on the enemy who really threatens American global interests (that is, China), and at least stop escalating conflicts with those who do not threaten these interests.

That is, to put it simply, to disperse with Moscow in the corners and not waste resources on confrontation on unnecessary issues.

Now the Russian-American talks are taking place at the technical level - and they are taking place against the background of the sobering up of Europe associated with the energy crisis that has broken out in the Old World. A crisis made possible by the EU's obsession with the idea of ​​"diversifying gas supplies" and "fighting Russian gas influence." It is possible that this crisis will sober up some European politicians and induce them to build more rational relations with Moscow. This, in turn, will weaken the positions of those countries (Britain, Poland, the Baltic republics), whose foreign and sometimes domestic policy is based on the conflict with Russia.

Option three: someone wants to pull Europe up to solving their problems. The fact is that Polish-European relations are not just bad now - they are in the deepest crisis since Warsaw's accession to the European Union. Brussels is trying to impose European values ​​on the Poles, and the Polish authorities, in turn, are turning Poland into an ultra-right, something even obscurantist authoritarian state headed by the xenophobic-anti-liberal Law and Justice Party. And the preponderance in this struggle is not on Poland's side: Brussels cannot kick the country out of the EU, but is able to drastically reduce its funding from European funds. Therefore, isolated Poland now needs to repeat the British feint during the Brexit negotiations, that is, create a situationin which an isolated country gets the opportunity to gather its rivals around itself to confront a common threat. The British came up with the Skripaliada for this, but the Poles have it all easier: you just need to inflate the migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border into a pan-European threat. “The protection of the Polish border is, of course, our national interest. However, the security and stability of the entire European Union is now under threat. Alexander Lukashenko's hybrid attack is directed at all of us. But we will not be intimidated, we will protect peace in Europe together with our partners from the EU and NATO, ”says Mateusz Morawiecki. And since the “hybrid attack by Lukashenka” is still less terrible than the “hybrid attack by Putin,” the position of the prime minister was slightly modified.it is only necessary to inflate the migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border to a pan-European threat. “The protection of the Polish border is, of course, our national interest. However, the security and stability of the entire European Union is now under threat. Alexander Lukashenko's hybrid attack is directed at all of us. But we will not be intimidated, we will protect peace in Europe together with our partners from the EU and NATO, ”says Mateusz Morawiecki. And since the “hybrid attack by Lukashenka” is still less terrible than the “hybrid attack by Putin,” the position of the prime minister was slightly modified.it is only necessary to inflate the migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border to a pan-European threat. “The protection of the Polish border is, of course, our national interest. However, the security and stability of the entire European Union is now under threat. Alexander Lukashenko's hybrid attack is directed at all of us. But we will not be intimidated, we will protect peace in Europe together with our partners from the EU and NATO, ”says Mateusz Morawiecki. And since the “hybrid attack by Lukashenka” is still less terrible than the “hybrid attack by Putin,” the position of the prime minister was slightly modified.we will protect peace in Europe together with our partners from the EU and NATO, ”says Mateusz Morawiecki. And since the “hybrid attack by Lukashenka” is still less terrible than the “hybrid attack by Putin,” the position of the prime minister was slightly modified.we will protect peace in Europe together with our partners from the EU and NATO, ”says Mateusz Morawiecki. And since the “hybrid attack by Lukashenka” is still less terrible than the “hybrid attack by Putin,” the position of the prime minister was slightly modified.

Finally, the fourth option: someone wants Russia to solve their problems. The West faced the fork. He himself cannot end the migration crisis: refugees remain near the Polish border and periodically storm it, creating an extremely unattractive picture for the EU. The problem can be solved if Alyaksandr Lukashenka, for his part, deports all refugees back to the Middle East, or puts them in camps, but for this we need to start talking to Lukashenka, and the West is categorically not ready for this for political reasons. After all, Old Man is not shaking hands for Europe after the presidential elections in Belarus in the summer of 2020. Therefore, the leaders of the EU (in particular, the still German Chancellor Angela Merkel) are calling Vladimir Putin to turn to Lukashenka and force him to resolve the issue. And apparently, the EU believes thatthat the best incentive for the Russian president to help the West will not be respectful of Putin and Russian interests, but the threat of sanctions.

This misconception can cost the EU dearly.

At the very least, the transformation of the Belarusian-Polish border from the hottest to the hottest point on the map of Europe.

The point where so many will get burned.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.