After delays and possibilities of postponement, the expected meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and American Joe Biden was finally held on the sidelines of the Rome summit, a meeting on which Ankara relied to discuss controversial files, and was seen as an indicator of the future course of relations between the two countries.

Negative premises

This was only the second meeting between the two presidents since Biden was elected president of the United States of America, and it is one of the indicators of recent tense relations between the two countries during his reign, especially since Biden included in his election campaign negative statements towards Erdogan and Turkey, and opened his presidency with sanctions and threatened others against it.

The meeting was preceded by indications that confirmed this meaning, including the failure of the two presidents to meet on the sidelines of Erdogan’s participation in the work of the United Nations General Assembly last September, and Erdogan’s statements after that that the course of relations with Washington during the Biden era “does not bode well,” unlike relations with previous administrations. Biden criticized the Turkish military operations in northern Syria on the grounds that they undermine efforts to combat the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Turkish foreign minister responded sharply to him.

Another discouraging prelude is the uncertainty of holding the meeting from the beginning. Turkish and American statements about “working to hold the meeting” on the sidelines of the Rome summit intersected without confirming it, and the possibility of postponing the meeting of the Glasgow climate summit, but rather announcing the Turkish side before the return of American sources To confirm his contract in Rome.

Finally, among these introductions, the duration of the meeting was limited to only 20 minutes, which is a semi-protocol time space that does not indicate the possibility of discussing the controversial files seriously and deeply, as well as reaching possible solutions or agreements regarding them, knowing that the meeting extended - contrary to what was planned - on more than one day. from hour.

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The meeting took more than an hour, i.e. three times what was arranged for him. It was expected on the one hand, and it expresses the many thorny contentious files between the two sides on the other hand, and indicates that it was not a protocol meeting, but it touched on some files in some detail on the third hand. .

This was reflected in the statements of the two sides, which described the meeting as "positive", although each of them also focused on the controversial files from their angle, such as the "S-400" system and the file of rights and freedoms in Turkey from Washington's side, as well as the Syrian file and the latter's support for the Syrian Democratic Forces. From the Ankara side.

In the long run, the Turkish-American relations will remain as they are, based on a ground of mistrust, and include a good number of outstanding issues resulting from contradictory visions and positions for the two countries, and thus fluctuate in general between tension and détente, but also with a structure, interests and paths that do not leave one of them luxury ignore the other.

The statements that followed the meeting refer to issues that have already been discussed, mainly two.

The first is the F-35 fighters that the United States has removed Turkey from its project once and for all.

Although the latter had asked to return the project as one of the options before the United States in the last bilateral meeting in this regard, it seems to have recently recognized the result as it focused in its negotiations with Washington on its investment in the project, estimated at one billion and 400 thousand dollars, and how to recover or use it.

In this context, the Turkish president expressed more than once his country's desire to purchase F-16 fighters from the United States, in addition to modernizing its existing crew of the same type, and said that the United States had made an offer to his country in this regard.

After the meeting, Erdogan said that he had received a response from his American counterpart in this regard, noting that he asked for his interest in the matter and used his "weight in Congress" to pass it.

Perhaps what reinforces this path is that the White House statement regarding the meeting included a clear reference to the “defense partnership” between the two countries, a term that refers to the traditional relationship between the two sides within NATO, but - given the context - also refers to the F-16 fighters that Turkey wants. Washington did not talk about it either positively or negatively, confirming or denying it until the moment of writing these lines.

The second major issue is the Turkish President's talk about a "joint mechanism" agreed upon by the two sides for communication, dialogue and dispute management, stressing that the meetings and communication between the two countries' ministries of defense and foreign affairs will increase in the future. Other interpretations of the mechanism also included the economic and financial fields.

Although the two countries had previous experiences in agreeing on bilateral and joint mechanisms for dialogue and dispute resolution, especially in the Syrian issue, they did not reach tangible results regarding the outstanding issues between them, and although the announcement of the mechanism came from the Turkish side exclusively immediately after the meeting, the agreement on this means that Channels of communication will be open between the two sides, which will reduce the potential for escalation and tension in the foreseeable future, especially with the decline in the severity of Turkish statements regarding the United States.

It is obvious that the two sides discussed during the meeting, in addition to the intra-regional relations, many regional issues, foremost of which are Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and the Caucasus, while the two parties’ statements regarding the Eastern Mediterranean file, which was mentioned in the White House statement, contradicted Turkish sources, which denied addressing it, stressing that “it is not on President Biden's agenda.

future paths

In general, it can be said that the meeting that brought the two presidents together on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rome broke the ice to some extent, especially as it came immediately after a potential major crisis between the two sides following the statement issued by 10 Western ambassadors, led by the American ambassador in Ankara regarding The trial of Turkish businessman Osman Kavala, and Erdogan's threat to expel them from his country.

It can be said that there is something that can be built upon in the relations between the two sides, especially with regard to the "defense partnership", any possible F-16 fighter deal, on which there does not seem to be a "veto" from the US administration regarding it until now.

Especially since the main obstacle to the relations of the two countries at the current stage is related to the file of armaments and defense industries, as well as Erdogan's repeated hints that his country will seek to obtain the weapons it needs from the United States and Western allies or from any other party - especially Russia - if they refuse.

On the other hand, the military operation that Ankara is brandishing in northern Syria against the Syrian Democratic Forces to remove its militants from the borders of about 30 km depth (which is the content of its understandings with Russia and the United States after Operation Spring Shield) will be an important and difficult test for relations. The Turkish president seemed somewhat confident when he indicated that US support for PKK-linked groups "will not continue in the same way," which raises the possibility that he had touched upon the process during his conversation with Biden and/or reached some agreement with him regarding it or regarding Syrian Democratic Forces. But the real American position will become clear politically and on the ground when Ankara launches its operation, if it does.

As for the long term, the Turkish-American relations will remain as they are, based on a ground of mistrust, and include a good number of outstanding issues resulting from contradictory visions and positions for the two countries, and thus fluctuate in general between tension and détente, but also with a structure, interests and paths that do not leave one of them. The luxury of ignoring the other.

Ankara will also remain on its path of seeking relative independence and balance as much as possible in the foreign policy between Russia and the United States, a vision that the last few years have proven necessary for Turkey on the one hand, and difficult and costly for Turkey on the other.

The approaching date of the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey, scheduled for mid-2023, is also a catalyst for tension and crises between the two sides, as Washington recently clearly entered the line of Turkish internal affairs through the aforementioned ambassadors’ statement, as well as the White House statement on “the importance of strong democratic institutions and respect for human rights.” Rule of Law for Peace and Prosperity," in an echo of Biden's statements about Erdogan and Turkey during his election campaign.

This means that the course of relations between the two sides will be mined in the future, not only in the regional issues and outstanding disputed files, but also in the Turkish internal affairs, which means the possibility of a return to tension in any upcoming future test.