The cold wave is coming, will it be a cold winter this year?
The beginning of winter in 2021 is not yet here, but the cold wave comes first.
The reporter learned from a press conference held by the China Meteorological Administration on November 4 that: According to the latest monitoring, the La Niña phenomenon (an abnormal drop in sea temperature in the cold waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean) occurred in the northern hemisphere in October this year.
From November 5th to 8th, the cold wave weather will affect most parts of my country from west to east and north to south. The average temperature will drop by 8℃～10℃, and in some areas, the drop will reach 12℃～15℃. Including Beijing There will be light to moderate snow or sleet in parts of North China, Northwest China, and parts of Northeast China, and some areas will experience heavy snowfall. By November 13th, affected by another cold air, the Yangtze River and most areas north of it will have average The temperature will generally drop by 4°C to 8°C, and the local temperature in North China and Northeast China will drop by more than 10°C.
According to historical data, the temperature in winter in La Niña is generally low in my country.
So, will there be a cold winter this year?
Why is this cold wave coming so aggressively?
How to affect our country?
The reporter interviewed authoritative experts from China Meteorological Administration.
Frequent cold air activities affecting our country this winter
Affected by the cold wave, Beijing has recently experienced rain, snow, and strong winds to cool down.
"The most obvious rain and snow period in Beijing is from November 6th to the morning of November 7th. Most areas can reach moderate rain and turn to snow after rain." said Zhang Linna, chief forecaster of the Beijing Meteorological Observatory. Beijing will be on November 5. There will be light rain from west to east during the day and night. On November 6th, the rain will gradually become obvious during the day, and the mountainous areas will turn into sleet or snow; on November 6th, the plain areas will turn from rain to snow at night, and the mountainous areas will be snowy; from November 6th to November 11th. On the morning of the 7th, most areas may see the first snow.
Zhang Linna said that the Beijing Meteorological Observatory will issue warning signals for cold waves, strong winds and road icing in a timely manner according to the weather situation. Rain and snow weather will cause poor visibility and slippery roads. The public should use public transportation as much as possible. Drivers should drive carefully and travel in advance. Understand road conditions and pay attention to safety.
According to Zhao Huiqiang, deputy director of the Office of the China Meteorological Administration, it is expected that the cold air activities that will affect my country this winter are frequent and strong. The temperature in the central and eastern regions is generally colder, with large fluctuations in seasonal cold and warm; precipitation is generally distributed in the north and the south. Among them, the eastern part of Heilongjiang, the central part of the Yellow River Basin, the western part of North China, and the northern part of Xinjiang are more than 20% to 50%.
Why did the cold wave and first snow come so early this year
Xue Jianjun, deputy director of the National Meteorological Center, introduced that this year's cold wave weather has a wide range of impacts, involving two aspects: On the one hand, the cold air that usually affects our country comes from West Siberia. This time it is also, but this time it helps. The direct southward movement has led to a very large cold air force in West Siberia. On the other hand, the atmospheric circulation in Eurasia has recently shifted, and the north-south movement has been noticeable. The cold air in the polar regions has moved all the way south and supplemented West Siberia.
So this time the cold air started in Xinjiang and affected most of my country from west to east and north to south, and it would go all the way south across the Qinling and Nanling Mountains.
"The cooling rate is very large this time." Xue Jianjun said, on the one hand, it was because of the strong cold air; on the other hand, the cold air activity was not strong after the strong cold air process in mid-October. The early temperature in many places was high, and the cold air was coming. There is still a warming up before, resulting in a particularly large temperature difference, and you will feel the temperature drop is very obvious. You need to prepare in advance and add clothes in time to keep warm.
In addition, before the arrival of cold air, warm and humid airflows in the middle and lower layers of Northeast, North China, and Huanghuai regions were relatively sufficient, and the meteorological conditions for air pollution diffusion were relatively poor. We must pay attention to the impact of fog and haze on human health in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
Why does it snow so early in many parts of the country?
Xue Jianjun said that cold air and warm and humid air are combined. From west to east, there is a wide range of rain and snow weather in the northern region, which will occur in eastern Northwest China, Inner Mongolia, North China, and Northeast China. Snow does not necessarily occur in northern China except southern Hebei. Most areas There will be snowfall, and basically it rains first, and then gradually turns into snowfall.
The snowfall is very heavy in the eastern and northeastern regions of Inner Mongolia, and attention should be paid to the adverse effects caused by snow accumulation.
"Recently, most areas in southern Jilin, Liaoning, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Shanxi and other places will experience the first significant snowfall in the second half of the year. The public should listen to the relevant weather forecast and warning information issued by the local meteorological department in a timely manner, and arrange Good production and life." Xue Jianjun said.
Cold temperature does not mean cold winter, we must continue to monitor
Since July this year, the sea temperature of the equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific has continued to decline, and in October it entered the state of La Niña.
In 2008, affected by the La Niña phenomenon in the northern hemisphere, severe rain, snow and freezing disasters occurred in southern my country. Will La Niña bring a similar cold winter to my country this year?
Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center, explained that colder temperatures do not mean cold winters; “cold” and “warm” are only compared to average conditions, while “cold winter” and “warm winter” are different, and there are strict standards. of.
This year, it is expected that the temperature will be relatively low, but it is not a cold winter but according to the standard.
Jia Xiaolong said that the low-temperature rain and snow in the south in 2008 were related to very complicated climatic factors. On the one hand, the cold air was more frequent, and on the other hand, the water vapor transmission conditions were very good. Therefore, the occurrence in 2008 lasted for a relatively long time. Rain, snow and freezing weather.
"From this year's forecast, the water vapor conditions in southern my country are not as good as in 2008, and the possibility of large-scale, continuous low-temperature rain and snow freezing is relatively small." Jia Xiaolong said, but there may be stages in the east of the southwest and the west of the south of the Yangtze River. In the process of low-temperature rain, snow and freezing weather, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the phased low-temperature rain, snow and freezing weather process on the power grid and traffic, and prepare for the possible phased centralized electricity demand.
(Our newspaper, Beijing, November 4th, by our reporter Yuan Yufei)