• This Thursday, the Paca region entrusted its TER Marseille-Nice line to the Transdev rail group from 2025.

  • A contract which ends the SNCF monopoly on French trains.

  • How will the country's rail traffic be impacted by competition from rail?

It is a piece of French railway history which was played out Thursday in Paca.

By awarding the operation of the Marseille-Nice rail line to the private group Transdev from 2025, the region's elected officials have put an end to the SNCF's monopoly on the country's rails.

European law imposes from December 2023 a competition for rail traffic for all regions, and PACA hopes to improve the rail conditions of its passengers thanks to this.

Depending on the region, "traffic will be doubled", from seven daily round trips to 14, for "an equivalent cost".

The ten-year concession contract is estimated at 870 million euros.

A historic contract, which may appeal to others.

What will the end of the SNCF monopoly be?

SNCF has solid trains

One thing is already certain, the railway giant is not in danger of disappearing. In 1994, Germany opened its rail to competition. 27 years later, the national company, 

Deutsche Bahn

still controls 80% of the country's trains, informs Yves Crozet, an economist specializing in transport. If the SNCF has officially lost its monopoly, it should therefore retain its domination over French rail. “Especially since for the moment, the regions are very cautious, supports the expert. The Paca is the only one to have called for this competition, the others prefer to continue with the SNCF. "

Soon there will be no other choice but to put in competition, but here too, the national company leaves with a few wagons in advance.

“She has the experience, the staff, the history and the trains to do it.

Yes, the SNCF will be faced with a competitive bidding process, but it should win the bid most of the time, ”projects Lucile Ramackers, consultant at Trans-missions, a mobility consultancy firm.

To take the German example, competition has mainly increased the number of trains in the country, and in fact, “the number of trains by 

Deutsche Bahn 

has not significantly decreased since the competition.

"

And the users in all this?

For the user, it is useless to hope for a fall in the price of tickets. “A TER is 80% public subsidy, there is no point in lowering its price,” says Yves Crozet. On the other hand, better rail traffic is hoped for. Considering that it is the regions which will have the last word and which will fix the contracts, "they can put the requirements which they wish in, in order to answer as well as possible to the specific requests of the territory and its users", advances Lucile Ramackers.

The Marseille-Nice case is a good example: the price of the TER should not change, but the frequency of trains will be doubled.

“This is what the competition is about.

Since a train costs less to the community, we can run more or offer better services in it, ”continues Yves Crozet.

Once again, it is Germany which serves as an example for the economist: “A German TER does not cost less for the user than in France, but it costs twice less for the community.

"

Then, the whole point of a competition is to get out of the habits of the SNCF.

"Not that they are bad in absolute terms, but other companies can offer other services more suited to the demands of each region," notes Lucile Ramackers.

What future French railway?

The competition will become automatic from December 2023. The duration of the contracts for a maximum of ten years, the entire French rail market will have been put into competition at least once by 2033 (the time that the contracts started in 2023 before the end of the year. competition obligation end). Much could be played out on the success - or not - of the TER Marseille-Nice line: "If successful, that would encourage other regions to open up outside the SNCF", supports Yves Crozet.

As said, the French giant should nevertheless keep a good part of its control, even in the event of great success of Transdev.

"In the next ten years, the competitive tenders will gradually spread, and depending on their success, grab more or less market share from the SNCF", concludes Lucile Ramackers.

In 2050, there will therefore probably be a few more trains but few real profound changes in the French railway world.

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