[Explanation] According to the National Climate Center, a weak to medium intensity "La Nina" event will be formed in the winter of 2021.
"La Nina" is here, will this winter be a cold winter?
This issue has become a focus of attention.
Recently, Zheng Zhihai, chief meteorological expert of the China Meteorological Administration, accepted an exclusive interview with a reporter from China News Agency to provide answers.
[Explanation] "La Nina" refers to the phenomenon that the waters of the equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific continue to become abnormally cold over a large area.
Zheng Zhihai said that usually in the winter when the "La Niña" event occurs, the cold wave and cold air activities that affect China are frequent, and the temperature in the central and eastern regions is likely to be lower than normal.
[Concurrent] Zheng Zhihai, Chief Meteorological Expert of China Meteorological Administration
From the perspective of the overall influence of "La Niña", generally speaking, from the statistical point of view of the past, it is relatively more likely that it is beneficial to the northern region or the temperature will be lower.
[Explanation] Zheng Zhihai said that cold does not mean cold winter, cold winter and warm winter are a climate concept, and sometimes it is not equivalent to actual experience.
According to the standards of the National Climate Center, the average temperature of the three months of winter is required to determine the cold or warm winter.
[Concurrent] Zheng Zhihai, Chief Meteorological Expert of China Meteorological Administration
The basic element for judging cold winter is mainly the average temperature of the three months in winter. In terms of space, the main considerations are the three ranges of single station, regional and national levels. Then for a single station, it is a single station. If the average temperature is less than or equal to -0.43 times the standard deviation, we can say that this is a cold winter at a single station. At the same time, when the number of cold winter stations in an area exceeds 50% of the total number of stations in the area, we In other words, it is a regional cold winter. If the area of the cold winter exceeds 50% of the effective area of the country, it is a national cold winter.
[Explanation] Zheng Zhihai pointed out that since this winter is more affected by the "La Nina" event, instead of paying attention to the cold or warm winter of the meteorological concept, the general public needs to pay more attention to extreme events with abnormal temperature fluctuations.
[Concurrent] Zheng Zhihai, Chief Meteorological Expert of China Meteorological Administration
This year’s situation is mainly due to the impact of the "La Niña" incident. This winter may have a more obvious impact on us than last year, so consider cold air activities. Relatively speaking, it is relatively frequent and the influence is relatively strong. At the same time, we consider that under the influence of "La Niña", the fluctuations of cold and warm in this season will be relatively large, and the phased characteristics will be relatively obvious.
Reporter Liu Chao reports from Beijing
Editor in charge: [Ji Xiang]