Fork for Beijing

US President Joseph Biden said America would come to Taiwan's aid in the event of a Chinese invasion.

An invasion that (if it takes place, of course) will be provoked by America itself.

Balance, crisp red lines and their respect. Here are three rules that govern law and order in East Asia, the most conflict-ridden region in the world. Three rules that allow states that have the deepest personal enmity towards each other to coexist on the same civilizational patch. And now these rules are actively leveled by the United States in their attempt to somehow restrain China's tread to the throne of the world leader.

Washington has correctly identified China's Achilles heel - Taiwan. An island that separated from the PRC in the middle of the 20th century and whose separation in Beijing is not recognized. And they do not start an extremely costly in all respects war for the return of Taiwan just because the island's authorities are skillfully balancing between defending de facto independence and de jure rejection of independence (that is, in other words, they do not officially proclaim it). In recent years, it has become more difficult to maintain a balance, largely due to the intensified foreign policy of the PRC and the general fatigue of the Chinese leadership from the lack of progress in resolving the Taiwan issue. Now Washington is trying to finish off this balance with a series of steps coordinated with that part of the Taiwanese elite, which is also tired of uncertainty.

For example, the United States is trying to raise the international status of Taiwan. Today the island is fully recognized by only a dozen and a half states - mainly the poor countries of Latin America and Oceania. And the number of these countries is regularly decreasing thanks to Beijing's readiness to invest in certain national projects of small countries in exchange for breaking off diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Americans do not want to arrange auctions with the Chinese, so they go not through national governments, but through international organizations. In particular, through the UN. On October 22, high-ranking delegations from the United States and Taiwan held talks on the subject of more active Taiwan participation in the UN, as well as in addressing global challenges - in particular, in the fight against climate change and coronavirus.

Recall that before, during and for several years after the Second World War, there was a civil war in China between the official authorities of the Republic of China and the Communist Party. The Communists won, leaving only a fragment of the Republic of China in the form of Taiwan (where the government was evacuated after the defeat in the civil war in 1949), but it was this government that the West continued to recognize as the official representative of all of China. It was Taiwan, and not the People's Republic of China, created by the communists on the continent, that sat in the General Assembly and took a seat in the UN Security Council. However, in 1971, the situation changed: the United States decided to normalize relations with the PRC, and part of this agreement was the exclusion of Taiwan and the inclusion of the PRC as the legitimate representative of all of China. And since then, China has been watchingso that the spirit of Taiwan does not exist in the organization, so that there is not even a hint that the UN recognizes Taiwan's status as a sovereign state.

In addition to diplomatic games, the United States is also involved in the military. The fact is that although Chinese President Xi Jinping regularly says that he wants to reunite China peacefully, Beijing also regularly demonstrates its muscles (through exercises and other military demonstrations), showing that it can resolve the issue through the use of force. “Since 2020, the planes and ships of the People's Liberation Army (of the Armed Forces of the PRC. - 

) have sharply increased their activity in the Taiwan Strait, "- says the head of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen.

According to her, the PLA regularly invades the airspace and territorial waters of Taiwan.

And she says the Taiwanese "will not bow to pressure" and that the island will continue to invest in the development of the military so that "no one can force Taiwan to follow the path that China has chosen for us."

A path that "assumes neither a democratic lifestyle in Taiwan, nor sovereignty for its 23 million population."

She positions the prospect of a Chinese invasion as almost imminent and says the invasion is not just Taiwan's problem.

According to Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan is at the forefront of a new "clash of ideologies," and therefore its security is important to the entire free world.

“Countries are becoming more aware of the threat the CCP poses to them.

And they must realize the value of working with Taiwan.

And we must remember that if Taiwan falls, the consequences will be catastrophic both for the regional world and for the entire system of democratic alliances, "Tsai Ing-wen writes.

And the States declare that they are ready to defend this front line from the Chinese invaders.

“It's time to end with strategic ambiguity,” says Senator Tom Tillis, a member of the Armed Services Committee.

- I think such a move will cool China in its hopes.

We need to make it clear to China that (the invasion of the island - 

) will entail consequences. "

The American population is of the same opinion. There will be no problems with the American population. Polls show that in six months (that is, from March to October 2021), the number of Americans who believe that the United States should send troops to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion there has grown from 40% to 52%. Apparently, the upward trend will continue.

Why did it happen? Apparently, due to a combination of at least three factors. First, an increase in the aggressiveness of Chinese foreign policy. Secondly, the systemic growth of anti-Chinese sentiments in the United States (some politicians even stutter that the PRC is a much more dangerous enemy than Russia). And finally, thirdly, a decrease in the confidence that the United States can defeat China on the battlefield at any moment (which American politicians regularly assure the population of). If in 2019 there were 58% of supporters of US military superiority, while only 11% of Americans considered China stronger, then in 2021 the figures were already 46% against 18%. For the first time ever, less than half of US citizens were confident that their country could defeat China militarily. So,you need to beat as quickly as possible - while the Chinese armed forces are still generally inferior to the American ones. And it is advisable to beat in such a way that the States look not as an aggressor, but as a defender of those against whom the aggression has been committed.

Thus, the United States wants to supply China with a diplomatic fork in the form of a choice of two terrible decisions.

That is, either to come to terms with the formal independence of the island (which means, provoke riots in the PRC and show the whole world your weakness), or send troops and start a war (becoming an aggressor and giving the United States a legal opportunity to decimate the Chinese armed forces).

And now the question is whether China will find some kind of third response option or consider that the time has come to decide on the Taiwan issue.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.