In fact, of course, the outlines of the already inevitable acute phase of the global world economic crisis, which are more and more clearly visible on the European subcontinent, now excite the brains of not only professional European politicians.
For whom, with rare exceptions, any catastrophe, including natural or energy, is only a reason to successfully (or not very well, ask the losing candidate for the Bundeschancellor Armin Lashet) to pose in front of her in front of the cameras.
Say the right words and score the corresponding rating points.
But both for the population led by these politicians and for local business it just so happened that the "energy problem" turned out to be not at all a politically abstract "struggle for democracy with Russian gas."
And quite specific figures in the voters' accounts.
And also the threat for these very voters of mass deprivation of very specific jobs and quite unpleasant specific prices in supermarkets.
And here you have to very clearly understand - and believe me, smart people in Europe itself also perfectly calculate this - that the sought-after crisis, which scares everyone so much, is actually just beginning.
And we are all only at the first stage of this, alas, really long and not too happy journey.
But what is already clear just at the current moment of time, in fact: the crisis processes have already been irreversibly launched.
And at least the energy component of the crisis has definitely not been stopped at the first, initial stage, when it was still possible.
And now it will definitely not work.
Purely technologically, alas.
Yes, no one in Europe, oddly enough, is particularly striving for this, and therefore, to the current crisis, and we here, in Russia, must be treated as a given and impending inevitability.
And it would be somehow completely naive not to understand.
However, let's go in order.
Despite the general hysteria and calls for almost a nuclear war with the Russian Federation, there were also officials in Europe who, it seems, heard the Russian president speaking at the Valdai Forum last Thursday.
Or they finally listened to their own European business, which has been saying something like that for a long time - both publicly and not publicly.
In fact, everything is very simple.
Beate Baron, a spokesman for the German Ministry of Economy, said at a briefing last Friday that Russia is not just fulfilling its contractual obligations on gas supplies to Europe in full and literally point by point.
It is still more revealing and more frightening: all available capacities for the supply of natural gas to Europe from Russia are being used right now.
And exactly to the extent that Europe is requesting these capacities.
Accordingly, further questions on the markets should be addressed absolutely not to the Russians.
And since “pipeline capacities are being properly used”, it is necessary to clarify how high and sufficient these capacities are not from Gazprom, but from other “market participants”, explained Ms. Baron.
As for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, the official representative of the German profile ministry basically refused to comment on the statement of Russian President Putin that Russia is ready to start gas supplies the next day after receiving the appropriate permission from the German regulator for operation.
And the representative of the German Ministry of Economics is quite understandable here, even if for this we ourselves will also have to become a little cynical.
And finally, to admit that both Russia and Germany, as well as a number of reasonable European countries, on the one hand, of course, of course, are interested in the soonest launch of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
But, on the other hand, there is no need for them to fuss so much with the launch of a new main gas pipeline. And here you don't even need to invent anything. The European bureaucracy, as well as other Ukrainians with the Balts and Moldovans, can swear as much as they like at Hungary and its Prime Minister Orban. But it’s somehow rather stupid not to notice that the German and nearby energy markets are protected by exactly the same “long” agreements with Gazprom. And for the injection of Russian gas under these protected contracts, the existing capacities are quite enough. This is what, by the way, the official representative of the German Ministry of Economics Frau Beata Baron is actually talking about in plain text.
The energy security of Germany itself due to not very simple, but reasonably built contractual relations with the Russians in general and in general for the reporting period has been resolved, the current goal has been achieved.
And everything else, in principle, is not her, the official representative of the German ministry, the question.
And this, perhaps, is the first emerging line of the "energy fault" on the European subcontinent, a purely regional line.
If earlier Europe was divided into “Europe of different speeds”, now these different speeds are added with different gas prices.
Now let's try to clarify.
Let us again refer to Putin's speech at a meeting of the Valdai Club: the annual gas deficit in European markets, according to the most modest estimates, could be about 70 billion cubic meters. And this is really very serious not only in the opinion of the Russian president. But at the same time, some of the economies are “protected” by long-term contracts with Gazprom, concluded according to the “oil formula”, and some are not. At the same time, that part of Europe turned out to be unprotected, which either is geographically distant from Russia (although Italy, judging by the latest data, has increased the supply of "totalitarian gas" from the Russian Federation by as much as 16%, this, as we see, did not interfere), or found itself under excessive the influence of the bureaucratic structures of the EU and literally imposed agreements on Gazprom, focused specifically on "spot" prices. Which are currently so pleasing to the eye of a financial speculator,but they are not encouraging even the largest Russian supplier.
And here the reaction of the “Atlanticist circles” close to the EU is especially interesting with the delightful idea, in fact, “to take away and divide everything”.
Just to quote a recent article in the German, which is the funniest thing, in the Handelsblatt newspaper of journalist Christoph Herwartz, who, as he thinks, has found, together with the European Commissioners, a way to confront our country against the backdrop of rising gas prices in Europe.
Which, by the way, already in itself smacks of some madness, because "confrontation with the supplier" against the background of the unrecoverable shortage of the goods supplied by him is undoubtedly a new word in world economic science, but oh well.
So, Christoph Herwartz proposes a simple and uncomplicated thing, which is nothing new and cannot be: "EU countries can join forces to jointly purchase gas in order to resist the dominant supplier on the market, that is, Russia." And also the "single market and single prices", of course.
What can I say. It seems to us that here the German journalist pretty dumbfounded, first of all, the Germans themselves. Which should, according to this text, immediately give up all the advantages of the carefully built "energy hub" and "special relations" of Russian power engineers for many years. And the totalitarian Russian "Gazprom" makes a lot of fun, because this does not affect its negotiating positions in the still energy-deficient markets, just take my word for it, that's pretty much nothing at all. And this is the second line of the "crisis break", dividing Europe no longer on a regional basis, but, let's say, on an ideological basis.
Moreover, we are quite consciously, by the way, considering only the energy aspects of the impending crisis (in the future, the most difficult, most likely) crisis. In fact, there are much more of these lines, just their description is beyond the scope of this article - however, everyone can get acquainted with Putin's Valdai speech once again, the president said quite a lot about it there.
Well, how real "European solidarity" manifests itself in a rough crisis reality, despite all the beautiful words of European politicians and journalists, we had the dubious honor to observe during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
When countries stole banal masks and disinfectants from each other using completely pirate methods.
What is there to say about the approaching and, apparently, rather cold winter?
And the shortage is not of some gauze bandages, but of banal heat in living quarters and energy in the workplace.
And this kind of "solidarity", there is not even any doubt, can quite clearly divide Europe into countries that are energetically prosperous and catastrophically energetically disadvantaged.
With all that is called following.
For whom it will be very interesting to study Putin's illustration about a freezing wolf's tail.
And this will already be a very serious and truly visual, truly “European rift”.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.