Floating electricity prices "gates" opened.
Electricity prices will only drop but not rise. Expectations to break restrictions on the blind development of high energy-consuming industries
"This electricity price adjustment is an important step towards the market."
Beijing News Shell Finance: What do you think of the electricity price adjustment proposed by the National Standing Committee this time, and what are the key points?
Lin Boqiang: In the past, we talked about coal-electricity linkage, that is, coal prices rise and electricity prices follow. However, due to various macro reasons, it is actually difficult to achieve. Usually, coal prices rise but electricity prices do not rise.
The electricity price adjustment is a major reform.
First, in the past, coal-fired power generation was only partially traded on the market, about 40%.
The meeting of the State Council pointed out that it is necessary to promote all coal-fired power generation to the market in an orderly manner. Although it is not clear how to proceed in an orderly manner, the keynote has been determined, which is of great benefit to the adjustment of China's entire industrial structure.
Second, the energy-intensive industries are the most affected this time.
In the past, energy-intensive industries were large consumers of electricity, and local governments would usually give them preferential prices. However, this time there is no limit on the increase in electricity prices for high-energy-consuming industries. Electricity prices may rise higher, which is a major test for energy-intensive industries.
Zhang Zhongxiang: Although this reform cannot be said to fully meet the expectations of power companies, it can indeed absorb the cost of coal power. It is still a big step towards the market.
Expanding the scope of market-based electricity prices on the power generation side and the user side is conducive to straightening out the price relationship and allowing the market mechanism to play its due role.
First, it is clear that coal-fired power companies are supported to increase power supply on the power generation side, and all coal-fired power generation will enter the power market.
In response to the difficulties of coal-fired power enterprises, implement a phased tax deferral policy to guide financial institutions to ensure reasonable financing needs; on the user side, all users except residents, agriculture, and public welfare users, including small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households All industrial users can enter the electricity market.
Second, the range of fluctuations in electricity prices has been expanded, and the fluctuation ranges of market transaction electricity prices have been adjusted from no more than 10% and 15%, respectively, to no more than 20% in principle, and classification adjustments have been strengthened to form market transactions for high energy-consuming industries. Prices are not subject to a 20% rise, which has changed the market’s expectation that electricity prices will “only fall but not rise”.
In the future, if this up-and-down range can be greater or even eliminated, the electricity price will be closer to or completely based on market pricing.
"Solving the problem of short-term power shortages and restraining power consumption in high-energy-consuming industries is the most effective"
Beijing News Shell Finance: Why do you want to work in high-energy-consuming industries?
Lin Boqiang: China has no shortage of electricity or coal. The main problem of imbalances has come to this stage.
The current power shortage in China is mainly due to two aspects. First, 70% of the power generation on the supply side is coal-fired power generation, and 70% on the demand side is industrial power, of which 40% and 50% are used in high-energy-consuming industries.
Solving short-term power shortages is the most effective way to curb power consumption in high-energy-consuming industries.
The second is the short-term power shortage. Coal mining is encouraged to solve short-term problems, but it is not in line with China's dual-carbon goals. In the medium and long term, the use of coal resources should be reduced, making the proportion of coal supply in power generation smaller.
High energy consumption is a big power user, and short-term measures for high energy consumption industries are consistent with the driving force of the dual control goal.
On the whole, China’s residential electricity consumption accounts for about 15%, and industrial electricity consumption accounts for about 70%. However, China is a large industrial country and overall adjustment is unrealistic. Taking measures for high energy-consuming industries will not only help adjust the industrial structure. It is also conducive to the completion of the dual control goal.
To solve the short-term power shortage as soon as possible, the supply side and the consumer side need to start at the same time. The supply side encourages coal power to increase power generation, and the demand side needs to curb high energy consumption.
Dong Xiucheng: Electricity prices have not yet been fully market-oriented. If there are no extremely special circumstances for general commodities, the prices will follow the market.
Electricity is not the same as ordinary commodities because it involves many aspects such as people's livelihood and energy security, so electricity prices are still being managed and controlled as much as possible in the process of introducing market mechanisms.
This adjustment has increased the extent of market price adjustments, the price of electricity purchases between enterprises has become more flexible, and the role of market mechanisms has been improved.
In addition, high-energy-consuming industries are big carbon emitters. The adjustment to high-energy-consuming industries will help achieve the national energy dual control goals, and to a certain extent, it will inhibit carbon emissions and promote related Enterprises orderly use electricity, orderly production, and resolutely avoid the blind development of high-energy-consuming industries.
Zhang Zhongxiang: This time the National Convention has clearly classified implementation. The electricity price for high-energy-consuming enterprises can be exempted from the 20% increase. However, in actual operation, which are high-energy-consuming enterprises, whether they are strictly classified and treated differently, etc., these will affect the implementation The effect remains to be seen.
However, the decision of the National Standing Committee is to reform and improve the direction of the market-oriented formation mechanism of coal and electricity prices.
"Rising electricity prices are good for the thermal power industry"
Beijing News Shell Finance: What is the biggest impact of price fluctuations on stakeholders in the entire industry chain?
Lin Boqiang: For the thermal power industry, it is a big plus in the short term, which stimulates the enthusiasm of power generation companies to a certain extent; it is a very big disadvantage for high-energy-consuming industries, which will soon be reflected in the capital market.
In general, the production capacity of energy-intensive industries will decline.
Under market transactions, the price of high-energy-consuming electricity may rise and the cost will increase, unless there is no production or a reduction in production.
The rise may be channeled downstream, but the downstream impact is relatively limited.
Because the current statement is to advance all access to the electricity market in an orderly manner, but it is not clear how to orderly, and it depends on the market supply and demand gap.
Dong Xiucheng: From the perspective of the entire price transmission process, the increase in coal prices and the increase in the cost of power generation companies are equivalent to the increase in the price of raw materials for power generation companies. The price of raw materials is reflected in the price index as PPI. If the price of electricity rises, it may extend. To CPI performance.
However, our concerns about inflation are understandable. However, the consumer price index is a weighted product of many commodities, and it does not mean that a rise in the price of a certain commodity will definitely lead to an increase in the CPI.
We cannot simply think that rising electricity prices will definitely lead to a rise in CPI, but it is just one of the unfavorable factors.
Beijing News Shell Finance: The article mentioned encouraging local governments to provide preferential policies for small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. Do you have any suggestions?
Lin Boqiang: It should be.
Firstly, small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households do not use much electricity; secondly, small and micro enterprises have difficulty in survival. If electricity prices rise and increase the cost of small and micro enterprises, it will be even more difficult. Therefore, the preferential policies provided to them reflect the government’s Encouragement and support from enterprises.
Dong Xiucheng: In theory, the implementation of preferential treatment actually means different prices for different commodities or users. This measure has also been adopted before, for example, preferential measures for industrial electricity use.
Rising electricity prices affect the cost of enterprises, and it is understandable that local governments offer price concessions to small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households.
However, how to do this requires the local government to choose and decide based on comprehensive considerations such as economic development, livelihood security, dual energy control targets, and future carbon emission target control in the region.
"In the future, the government should make the market work as much as possible under limited premises."
Beijing News Shell Finance: How do you view the changes in power pricing policies?
How to proceed with the next reform?
Dong Xiucheng: Generally speaking, from the perspective of national energy price reform, the general direction of gradually realizing marketization has not changed, but electricity price reform is relatively lagging behind coal, oil and other energy price reforms. This is mainly due to the sensitivity of electricity prices. Too strong.
In fact, whether it is oil and gas reform or power reform, the ultimate direction is marketization, that is, the government does not control as much as possible, and prices are determined by market supply and demand. There is no suspense in this general direction, but in the reform process, the government must consider it. Sensitivity, especially for civil electricity.
Civilian electricity consumption must also be market-oriented, and the pace may not be as fast as industrial electricity consumption.
However, there will also be a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for residential electricity. For example, the price of residential electricity can be tiered, taking into account the issue of people's livelihood security and the adjustment of market mechanisms.
Lin Boqiang: The contradiction between coal and electricity has always been the most eye-catching contradiction in the energy industry.
If subsequent reforms are carried out, the advancement of complete market transactions will be slower, because residential electricity prices are difficult to "mobilize", and residential electricity consumption accounts for a small proportion, which does not affect the overall situation.
What I am more worried about now is that under the influence of price, energy-intensive industries will buy electricity on the market in the future. Will it be more difficult for other industries to buy electricity, because companies definitely want to sell to high-energy-consuming industries with unlimited prices.
Therefore, how the government balances this phenomenon still needs to do a lot of work.
Individuals tend to have electricity in the hands of the state, and the government should let the market work as much as possible under limited conditions.
Shell Financial Correspondent, Beijing News
Cheng Weimiao Hu Meng
Officials intensively voiced "safety guarantee"
● September 27
The State Grid announced that it will increase the deployment of cross-regional and cross-provincial resources for the power grid, and strive to keep the bottom line of electricity consumption for people's livelihoods.
● September 28
The Henan Provincial Government convened a meeting to demand that coal mines resume work and production, increase production and supply, and accelerate the construction of coal storage bases.
● September 29
The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Railway Group issued a notice to increase the focus on coal transportation for power generation and heating.
Shanxi has signed medium and long-term coal contracts with 14 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities to ensure energy supply.
● October 5th
The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice requesting that the reasonable financing needs of coal, steel and other production enterprises be guaranteed.
● October 8
The National Standing Committee proposed to expand the room for electricity price increase to 20%, and there is no limit to the increase of electricity price in high-energy-consuming industries.
● October 11
The meeting of the National Energy Commission requested that some localities rectify the “one size fits all” restriction on electricity and production or campaign-style “carbon reduction”, and promote the large-scale application of advanced energy storage technologies.
● October 12
The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice to clearly and orderly liberalize the on-grid tariffs for all coal-fired power generation and maintain the stability of residential electricity prices.