Military actions in Donbass can be ended with just one call.
This was stated by the speaker of the Ukrainian delegation to the trilateral contact group on the settlement of the conflict in Donbass Alexey Arestovich on the air of the Dom TV channel.
“The war in Donbass can be stopped with one call.
Crimea can be de-occupied in five minutes by the decision of the head of the Russian Federation, and only by his personal decision.
And, accordingly, all personal responsibility lies with him, ”Arestovich said.
Whose call?
To whom, where?
How many questions, how few answers.
From the context, one can guess that, perhaps, Arestovich is referring to a call from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Accordingly to the heads of the LDNR and the leadership of the Crimea.
But it is not exactly.
In general, Arestovich has interesting fantasies about Putin. In September, he imagined that the same Donbass could be captured by the Ukrainian army in three to five days in the event of a serious illness of the Russian president: “We do not know how the territory will be de-occupied. We are preparing for various options. The strategy lies in the political and diplomatic way of settlement. And option B is not the one that the president spoke about, I will formulate this - this is the military path. For example, Putin for some reason fell seriously ill, and we have three or five days to resolve the issue. " Regarding the “de-occupation” of Crimea, he spoke out this week in the sense that the Ukrainian army, they say, could “take out” the Russian group from the peninsula, but the country's authorities still prefer the political and diplomatic path.
The Kremlin commented on Arestovich's statements rather succinctly.
"No.
For the Kremlin, such a question does not exist, ”said Russian presidential envoy Dmitry Peskov, answering the question of whether Moscow is ready to discuss the issue of Crimea with Kiev.
... However, let's imagine that Arestovich's fantasies have come true to some extent.
Let's say something happens to Putin, confusion in the Kremlin - what will happen to Donbass and Crimea in this case?
It is absolutely clear that there will be nothing with Crimea.
The notorious "five minutes" is exactly the period for which the Ukrainian army surrendered in Crimea in 2014. That is, basically, and without resisting. The return of Crimea was almost bloodless and swift, with the full support of the Crimeans and the inability of the Ukrainian security officials to provide at least some resistance. However, given the fact that many of them received Russian passports as a result and now serve Russia, it makes sense to talk not only about their inability, but also about their unwillingness.
You should not underestimate the capabilities of the enemy: in six years, Ukraine managed to make something similar to an army from a crowd that was completely incapable of combat. The Russian army, however, is still very far away. This is not propaganda: it so happened historically that "Russia has two allies - the army and the navy", therefore at all times, even the most difficult, one of the main stakes was made on the army. Of course, we do not take into account the "holy nineties" - well, that is how they ended 20 years ago. And Russia is such a significant, noticeable player on the world stage, despite all the sanctions, and, accordingly, the Russian army is a rather threatening unit. Let us recall how much commotion all over the world was in the spring, when army exercises were held on the borders of Russia. The formidable Ukraine was especially worried, having flooded the world community with cries of support.
Arestovich's words about at least some possibilities of the Ukrainian army in the Crimea issue are an illustration of the thesis "There is a lie, there is a vile lie, but there is Ukrainian propaganda."
Now to Donbass.
It is more difficult with Donbass, because, unlike Crimea, there is no direct presence of Russia there.
There are economic ties and support, there is, let's say, humanitarian aid, but the notorious fighting Buryats are not.
There is another - the constant threat to the Russian army.
That is, in Ukraine they are afraid, and in the Donbass they hope that in the event of a serious offensive from Ukraine "because of the ribbon", red cavalry will appear.
But suppose, suppose that Arestovich blew, spat and cursed Putin, in Russia there is a serious crisis and confusion - not up to Donbass, in general.
And the Ukrainian army is bravoly sent to "de-occupy" the region.
What will happen in this case?
Yes, in general, the same thing that happened in the summer of 2014.
Heavy, exhausting, bloody battles with unpredictable results.
These battles ended, let us recall, six years ago with the Ilovaisk cauldron.
And when the Ukrainian leadership decided that this was an accident and that it was possible to continue to go on the offensive, they continued with the Debaltsevo cauldron.
That is, there will really be a war.
Terrible, bloody, which will take many lives.
Back in 2014, many in Donbass began to understand that it would not be like Crimea.
Did it stop them?
No.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.