The reasons for the "power cuts" in many areas in Northeast China are exposed. In fact, the biggest test is still to come.
Author: Ma Chenchen Responsible Editor: Liu Zhanchao
A manager of a power generation company in Northeast China told reporters that even if there is coal to burn, it must be left for winter.
Under the influence of multiple factors, power supply in some northeastern regions is suddenly tight. The lack of power not only restricts industrial production, but also affects the lives of residents to a certain extent.
The upcoming heating season in Northeast China will have a new impact on coal power supply.
"There was no water and electricity in the early morning. There was not a drop of water in the house, the children could not make meals, and the toilet could not be flushed." I went to law school"...Recently, some residents in Jilin and Liaoning provinces reported on social media that the sudden power rationing has severely affected their normal lives.
On the afternoon of September 26, a reporter from China Business News called the State Grid hotline about the power outage. A staff member responded that “the power supply has continued to be tight recently and cannot meet the increasing demand for power consumption. The gap is particularly huge. Starting on 23rd, Jilin and Liaoning provinces have imposed stricter cut-offs on electricity consumption in some areas."
Stop the traffic lights
On September 23, power supply was restricted in parts of Shenbei New District and Hunnan New District of Shenyang City, and some roads were congested due to lack of power from signal lights.
An online video taken at the scene showed that a citizen drove a car through multiple intersections, but the traffic lights were not lit, and traffic was unimpeded all the way.
Another video showed traffic jams on many road sections in Shenyang. Except for car lights and scattered street lights, the industrial parks and communities on both sides of the road were completely dark.
"I received the text message of the power outage in the community at 7:34 in the evening, but the power outage at home was already at 7:30, and the recovery time was not stated. Even if there is a power outage, we must notify in advance and let us be prepared." The woman who accidentally encountered power cuts at home told reporters.
On the evening of September 26, Jilin Xinbei Water Affairs Co., Ltd. announced on its social account that in accordance with the requirements of the State Grid, the spirit of the Northeast Electric Power Management Bureau and the Jilin Provincial Energy Bureau regarding orderly electricity use will be implemented. Planned and unannounced power outages and curtailments. This situation will continue until March 2022. Power outages and water outages will become normal. As a result, the nine pumping stations will be out of power and the normal water supply will not be possible. In the near future, there will be frequent outages caused by power outages. For water phenomenon, water users and residents are expected to make preparations for water storage in time and turn off the faucet.
Implement power cuts to prevent grid collapse
On September 26, the Liaoning Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology held a provincial power security work conference.
The meeting pointed out that with the rapid economic development of Liaoning, the demand for electricity has increased substantially.
In the first August of this year, the electricity consumption of the whole society in Liaoning Province was 171.997 billion kwh, an increase of 9.47% year-on-year.
Since September 10, Liaoning’s external net power received has dropped sharply, and the pressure on power supply has further increased, and it has been unable to meet the power demand of all enterprises.
From September 10 to 22, Liaoning initiated 6 rounds of level III (load gap 5%-10%) and 3 rounds of level IV (load gap 5% and below) orderly electricity use measures, involving 23,196 households of enterprises during the period. The maximum avoidance peak is 2.4367 million kilowatts, and the scope of power consumption is limited to some industrial enterprises.
From September 23rd to 25th, due to the sudden reduction of wind power and other reasons, the power supply gap further increased to a serious level. Liaoning initiated 3 rounds of level II (load gap 10-20%) orderly power consumption measures, and they were implemented in an orderly manner during individual periods. In the case that the maximum power consumption measures avoid the peak of 4,169,200 kilowatts, there is still a power supply gap in the power grid.
According to the "Regulations on Power Grid Dispatching Management", the Northeast Power Grid Dispatching Department directly issued instructions to implement the "Power Grid Dispatch and Power Limitation" in accordance with relevant plans.
Different from orderly use of electricity, power rationing is the ultimate means to ensure the safety of the power grid. The impact of electricity use is extended to residents and enterprises that do not implement orderly use of electricity.
What is the "serious" level?
A reporter from China Business News consulted the "Management Measures for Orderly Utilization of Electricity" and found that Article 19 stipulates that: power operation authorities at all levels and power grid companies should issue early warning information to the public in a timely manner.
In principle, according to the difference in the proportion of electricity or electricity gaps in the current maximum electricity demand, the early warning signals are divided into four levels: Level I: particularly severe (red, more than 20%); Level II: severe (orange, 10%-20%) ); Grade III: heavier (yellow, 5%-10%); Grade IV: general (blue, less than 5%).
"Currently, the purpose of power curtailment is to ensure the safety of power supply. Otherwise, once the load is too large and the power grid collapses, there will be a large-scale blackout, even damage to the power grid equipment, and fire. Keep the impact and loss of the power outage within a certain range." A State Grid staff replied to reporters.
The power gap is greatly affected by thermal power and wind power
Many senior industry insiders analyzed CBN, that behind the power gap, there are many reasons such as insufficient supply and increasing demand.
In terms of demand, the weather in Northeast China has recently turned cooler, and the body temperature is about ten degrees, but central heating has not yet started. Therefore, many residents will choose to turn on air-conditioning, electric blankets and other methods for heating. During the peak production season, coupled with the economic recovery, the demand for industrial and commercial electricity has increased.
“When the wind speed is low, the amount of wind power generation drops significantly, or even does not generate electricity. The third power of the wind speed is proportional to the power generation. Due to the weather, the wind speed has been low in recent days, so there has been a significant decrease in the contribution of wind power." Hainan Green Researcher Sun Liping of the Institute of Financial Research told China Business News that at the same time, coal prices have been rising this year, and thermal coal prices have reached a level of thousands of yuan per ton that has not been seen in many years, which has seriously deviated from the break-even point of power plants. Coal power plants have more power. The greater the loss.
This has been confirmed in multiple official documents.
The State Grid Shenyang Power Supply Company mentioned in the notice issued on September 23 that recently, due to factors such as the decline in the net receiving capacity of the connecting line and the high coal power prices leading to the decline in the output of power plants, the supply and demand situation of the Liaoning power grid has become tight and short. There is a shortfall in power supply over time.
On the same day, State Grid Jilin Power Supply Company and State Grid Tonghua Power Supply Company also explained in the report: Recently, the Northeast Power Grid has been affected by factors such as the shortage of coal for electricity generation, the large shutdown capacity of thermal power units, the low power generation from new energy sources, and the increase in power load. The power supply continues to be tight.
In fact, many domestic provinces, including the Northeast region, have been restricted by the energy structure dominated by thermal power this year.
According to the 2020 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin of Jilin Province, Jilin Province’s power generation capacity was 101.883 billion kWh, an increase of 7.7%.
Among them, thermal power generation is about 75 billion kWh, wind power generation is about 13 billion kWh, hydropower generation is about 9.4 billion kWh, and solar power generation is about 4.5 billion kWh.
It can be seen that thermal power is still the main force.
According to the China Coastal Power Coal Purchasing Price Index (CECI) issued by the China Electricity Council, during the week from September 16 to September 23, the price of thermal coal has reached 1,086 yuan/ton (heat value 5500 kcal) , A year-on-year increase of nearly doubled, an increase of 56.26% from the beginning of the year.
"As the heating period is approaching, many thermal power plants have shut down in order to store the coal needed for the heating period. Now our plant is still operating at a high level, but we have also applied for double shutdowns to accumulate coal." A manager of a power generation company in Northeast China Tell the reporter that even if there is coal to burn, it must be left for winter.
As winter is about to enter, the Northeast region will still face a severe power supply situation.
The Liaoning Provincial Electricity Guarantee Work Conference requested that the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology should strengthen the supervision and inspection of the orderly use of electricity to ensure that the orderly use of electricity is in place, and to the greatest extent possible avoid the occurrence of power cuts.
Grid companies should extend the time for orderly electricity load gap forecasting and the release time of warning levels, and expand the scope of notification.
Power generation companies must stand at the height of fulfilling their social responsibilities and increase their power generation capacity during peak hours.
Call on all power users to scientifically and rationally arrange power consumption during peak hours of grid power consumption, realize peak-shift power consumption, and save power.