Regarding the future infection status of the new coronavirus, groups such as RIKEN have developed a new system that predicts future infection trends by combining the technologies used for weather forecasting and infectious disease simulation.
This system was developed by a group of team leaders, Kenmasa Miyoshi of RIKEN Center for Computational Science.
In the simulation of infectious diseases such as the new coronavirus, a method called "mathematical model" has been mainly used so far.
The group has developed a system that predicts future infection trends of the new coronavirus by combining this method with a technology called "data assimilation" that is used for weather forecasts using computers.
"Data assimilation" is a technology that compares the difference between the predicted value obtained in the past and the actual value, corrects it so that the error in future simulations is reduced, and derives a more correct prediction.
In the group, using this system, the number called "effective reproduction number" that indicates whether the infection is increasing or decreasing and the number of people who need to be hospitalized will be different depending on the measures in the future. We are simulating how it will change, and we publish the results on our web page.
Team leader Miyoshi said, "Using the weather forecast method is a new initiative. It's a new initiative, but we want to upgrade the system so that we can provide useful data."