The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has published its traditional Yearbook for 2020.
This is an important analytical document that attracts global attention and presents a combination of data in areas such as world military spending, international arms transfers, weapons production, nuclear forces, world armed conflicts and peacekeeping operations, in fact, partly contributing to the growth of that very arms market and military spending. ...
In a word, if you want peace, prepare for war.
Than the world is constantly and busy.
The top five exporters will give you a clear understanding of many political processes and an explanation of important events in world politics (including, for example, why France, an hour before the international announcement of the deal, lost its record-breaking contract for the construction of submarines for Australia for $ 66 billion).
A dozen of importers and a change in rotations within it will give an idea of the upcoming world conflicts and their geography.
So, Saudi Arabia became number one in the list of arms importers for 2016-2020, overtaking India.
President Trump's sword dance with US Secretary of State Tillerson in 2017 in Riyadh was arguably the most profitable dance in history - a $ 110 billion arms contract and $ 350 billion defense contracts over the next 10 years.
Let's not forget about the role of Iran in this, perhaps, the most advantageous contract for the US military-industrial complex in modern history.
If not for the "Iranian threat" that nightmares the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia, not for the pro-Iranian Houthis in Yemen, not for the incidents in the Gulf and Straits - perhaps the desire of the Saudis, as well as other monarchies of the Persian Gulf, to buy American weapons from head to toe (that is buy an American military insurance policy, in fact) wouldn't be so passionate.
Therefore, running back for a second to the Iranian nuclear deal and today's negotiations on it in Vienna: hasn't Iran deserved encouragement from the United States for helping to lobby the interests of the American military-industrial complex in the form of lifting sanctions and allowing the sale of its oil?
We'll see soon.
Returning to the list of the Stockholm Institute for Peace Research.
Four of the top ten importers are in the Middle East - apart from the aforementioned Saudi Arabia, these are Egypt, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Egypt, by the way, over the past five years has overtaken the UAE in the purchase of weapons.
The imports of weapons by the countries of the Middle East for the five-year period 2016-2020 increased by 25% compared to the previous period of 2011-2015.
But overall, growth in arms imports has shifted from the Middle East (33%) to Asia and Oceania (42%).
The most expensive (after the US-Saudi Arabia deal) contract seems to belong to Australia: 12 nuclear submarines should appear in its arsenal in the next 10 years.
Australia, after breaking the contract with the French, will build them itself, but with the help of the United States and England.
Which gives rise to the assumption that a serious military confrontation between the United States and China is still the reality of the next 10 years.
The military strategic alliance AUKUS (Australia, Britain, USA), the creation of which was suddenly announced in September of this year, is obviously preparing for serious events in the Indo-Pacific region.
Not today, but "the day after tomorrow", one can also assume an aggravation of the military conflict between India and Pakistan, with the possible involvement of China in it.
We are talking about the Jammu and Kashmir region, where the interests of all three mentioned powers are tied.
It will be interesting if China is drawn into a military conflict from two sides.
Why?
Because in the South Asian region, India (the second place in the world) and Pakistan (which got into the world ten and closed it) became the main buyers of weapons.
The largest arms supplier to India in the period 2011-2015, as well as in 2016-2020, was and remains Russia.
And although India's imports fell by 33%, the change in the leading arms suppliers to Delhi is interesting: France came second after Russia, Israel came third, and the United States came fourth.
Combat aircraft and missiles accounted for over 50% of all arms imports to India.
Pay attention: the import of arms from France to India in the period 2016-2020 increased by 709%.
Such figures must be realized!
Apparently, this phrase was uttered in the White House.
Moreover, according to the same SIPRI annual report for 2019, US arms exports to Asia and the Oceania region decreased by 20%: Americans began to lose ground in the markets of India, Pakistan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.
But the weapons needs of India's rival, Pakistan, are almost entirely provided by China (74% in 2016-2020).
“Like India, its main regional rival, Pakistan, has several outstanding orders for large weapons.
It is due to be delivered by 2028 and includes 50 JF-17 combat aircraft, eight Type 041 submarines, four Project 054A frigates from China, and four MILGEM frigates from Turkey.
The ordered ships represent a significant expansion of Pakistan's naval capabilities in the country's history, ”notes the Stockholm Institute.
In a word, already today, in 2021, we can predict where, how and when the world theaters of military operations will be deployed.
On land, on water, in the air.
The balance of power between arms manufacturers / sellers and buyers is unequal - 164 buyers versus 65 sellers.
Which, however, is absolutely logical.
The top members of the list of arms exporters say thank you to all those who helped them make sales in 2016-2020 - the initiators of conflicts in problem regions.
But who is topping the top 5 over the past five years?
The USA, Russia, France, Germany and China - they accounted for 76% of the entire world arms market.
China and Russia have slightly lost their positions, yielding to the United States, Germany and France, whose exports increased compared to the previous period.
SIPRI Yearbook
© sipri.org
By the way, by the end of 2019, the export of weapons from Israel increased by 77%, which is a record for the country.
So after France and us, Israel is a candidate for "beating" (and we have already seen this in terms of the Hamas missile attacks and testing of the Iron Dome in the summer of 2020).
And now, in my opinion, the most interesting and instructive.
The configuration of the five leading arms exporters is turning around.
The leader in the list is still for the United States, followed by Russia by a significant margin, but it was France that showed the highest growth in arms exports among the top five.
In 2019, France's arms exports grew by 72%, making it the world's third largest exporter.
It would not be an exaggeration to say that Macron's presidency with super-increased activity in Iraq, Lebanon, and recent direct telephone conversations with the newly elected President of Iran Is the Islamic Republic of Iran outdated enough?), It seems, has begun to greatly strain Washington (perhaps not only it).
Defense News writes that the French leap was due to two companies - Dassault Aviation (aviation) and Naval Group (sea).
The former successfully sold Rafale fighters to Egypt, India and Qatar, the latter became the most successful exporter of warships in the world: it sold submarines to India and Brazil, frigates from Malaysia and the UAE, and minesweepers to Belgium and the Netherlands.
A deal with Australia for more than $ 60 billion on submarines would be just a slap in the face for the American military-industrial complex.
Who would have let this happen?
Diego López da Silva, SIPRI researcher: "The French arms industry benefited from the demand for arms in Egypt (26% of all French defense exports), Qatar and India (14% each)."
It is not surprising that the United States, seeing the growth of the French military-industrial complex and record sales to Egypt, remembered about "human rights" and began to shout about the terrible crimes committed by the Egyptian army during the operation in the North Sinai, "the repression of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi", "the bloody suppression of demonstrations »Via HRW.
While French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian (in fact, the public face of the French military-industrial complex and the most successful seller of French weapons in the world - before becoming Foreign Minister, he was the French Defense Minister and one of Emmanuel Macron's "blessings" for the presidency) experiencing the shock of the betrayal of the US administration, we ask the main question: what consequences will this conflict between France and the United States have for us?
Closer rapprochement in arms exports with Germany - the fourth largest arms exporter in the world?
Or, to sweeten the pill, will the Americans give France, as a consolation, negotiated contracts in a region that is not so strategically important for the United States?
The same Iran, for example, waiting for the lifting of sanctions and renewal of its fleet, at the same time pushing it against the interests of the Russian military-industrial complex?
“It will take time and action to get out of the crisis between the US and France,” Le Drian said unequivocally on Thursday, September 23, 2021 to his American counterpart Anthony Blinken during a bilateral meeting in New York.
An hour-long meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly between them took place without cameras, microphones, quietly and carefully.
It is difficult for Le Drian, one of the powerful lobbyists of the military-industrial complex of the Fifth Republic, who has recently publicly praised his "friend" -frankophile, who lived in adolescence in France, Blinken, to endure such humiliation.
Part of the Russian expert community rejoices: some gloat that this is revenge for the fact that France once did not sell us the Mistrals, the second - that offended France will fall into a Russian-Chinese alliance.
I would advise you to rejoice with caution.
Yes, the Mistrals were not sold to us, but since 2015 France has made a 72% increase in arms exports and the locomotive of the French military-industrial complex has become the very Naval Group, I hasten to remind you.
This could not have happened without the permission of the United States.
However, as soon as France crossed that very legal red line, it lost its record submarine contract for Australia.
To think that Washington will allow Paris to "sail away" on a submarine to the Sino-Russian alliance is too rosy.
Rather, as a consolation (albeit weak), France could get a piece of Russian or Chinese market share.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.