Recent statements by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu have raised some concerns about a change in his country's policy towards Syrian refugees residing on its lands, especially with regard to their return or return to Syria.

Cavusoglu said a few days ago that his country had begun to witness "better cooperation from the international community regarding the safe return of refugees to their country," and that it had launched a "cooperation initiative with neighboring countries" that host Syrians, namely Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.

The file of Syrians residing in Turkey - who do not officially and legally bear the status of "refugee" but fall under the "temporary protection" clause - has, in recent years, turned into a bidding paper in the hands of the opposition towards the Turkish government, including campaigns of incitement against them from time to time.

Turkey and refugees

Turkey hosted the first wave of Syrians in April 2011, and continued to do so for many years, bringing their number to millions, after the first estimates did not exceed 100 thousand.

Although Turkey still officially adopts an open door policy;

It modified it years ago, and now prefers to support the displaced inside Syrian territory for many internal and external reasons, foremost of which is the pressure of the Turkish opposition and the regime’s attempt and its supporters to turn the refugee file into a pressure card.

Therefore, Turkey recently announced that it is unable to absorb new waves of refugees, and has tried more than once to pressure the European Union countries with this paper, especially in light of the regime's continuous threats with a large-scale military operation in Idlib, which includes about 4 million people.

However, the file of Syrians residing in Turkey - who do not officially and legally hold the status of "refugee" but fall under the "temporary protection" clause - has, in recent years, turned into a bidding paper in the hands of the opposition towards the Turkish government, including campaigns of incitement against them from time to time.

In 2019, it was assessed by some circles that the ruling Justice and Development Party had lost some municipalities - especially the Greater Istanbul Municipality - for reasons related to the Syrian presence there.

Therefore, the government has since that time reduced the internal tension by encouraging the voluntary return of Syrians to the north of Syria and controlling the Syrian reality on its lands with regard to place of residence and movement between governorates, a matter for which it was criticized at times, and at other times it admitted some mistakes and abuses. obtained during its implementation.

3 variables

Returning to the statement of the Turkish Foreign Minister about coordinating neighboring countries and increasing the international community's support for Turkey with regard to the Syrians, 3 main variables can be observed.

The first is international, related to international - especially European - fears of large waves of refugees from Afghanistan, specifically after the US withdrawal and the Taliban's control of matters there.

These fears were expressed in several forms, including offering support to some regional countries - including Turkey - to absorb them and prevent them from heading to the European continent, which Turkey officially and publicly rejected.

The second is regional, linked to the path of dialogue, rapprochement and reconciliations between the various countries of the region, a path that has had its harbingers recently, but its steps have accelerated a lot with the new US administration and some of its troubling trends for the countries of the region, which prompted the latter to reconsider some trends and policies.

It was a series of dialogues and meetings that were excluded and reprehensible in previous years between the parties to the regional polarization, and this reached its climax at the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership last August and the developments that followed.

As for the third, it is a Turkish local factor, due to the approaching date of the presidential and parliamentary elections to be held in 2023, in light of the escalation of opposition criticism of the government regarding the Syrians’ file, as well as the campaigns of incitement against them led by some opposition figures in particular.

Does anything change?

Accordingly, and in light of the three aforementioned variables, the same question arises as to the extent to which the Turkish government's position on refugees has changed, and whether there is a regional path pushing this direction.

The answer to this question according to the current data is no. There is no significant change in the Turkish position in particular and to a lesser extent the regional position, for many reasons.

In the first place, this is not the first time that the countries neighboring Syria have spoken about the file of refugees residing on their territory.

The foreign ministers of the four countries - Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon - held meetings in this regard in September 2019 in New York, and in December of the same year in Geneva.

Therefore, just talking about dialogue and coordination does not necessarily mean a radical change in attitudes.

Secondly, because a dramatic change regarding the Syrian refugees - especially with regard to the return of large numbers of them - is linked to many measures that are required to be secured before that, including stopping military operations and starting the reconstruction process, a decision that these four countries do not possess, but rather an international path whose conditions do not seem to have been met. matured yet.

As the Syrian crisis is still waiting for a real change in the field and political tracks, and this is something we are not likely to happen without a deal or agreement between Moscow and Washington, especially since the European position is still refusing to start the reconstruction process without the confrontations ending completely, as well as in light of some indications that It has responded from Moscow and Washington in the last few months in this direction.

Çavuşoğlu's statement carried an implicit criticism of returning some refugees to Syria forcibly or putting pressure on them in this direction without providing them with the minimum conditions required for return in terms of security and services.

He spoke about the "safe return", stressing the need to "implement education, health and employment projects for the returnees," as is the case in Idlib, northwest Syria, "instead of forcibly pushing people to return."

Cavusoglu's statements - especially regarding the conditions of return / return of refugees - gain additional importance in light of the Amnesty International report issued on the seventh of September, entitled "You are going to die", which revealed that returnees to Syria were subjected to killing, torture, enforced disappearance and rape. And sexual assaults by the Syrian intelligence.

Therefore, in general, it is difficult to talk about a significant change in the Turkish position on the residents of its territory.

Ankara is still calling for the return or return of Syrians to their lands, but within controls, including that it be voluntary, and that it be preceded by securing the appropriate conditions of safety, infrastructure and job opportunities.

And that the return of large numbers of them is linked to the reconstruction process after stopping the confrontations and reaching a political agreement.

As for northern Syria - in which Turkey is located and run by factions close to it - Ankara is still seeking to return the largest number of Syrians to it, as hundreds of thousands have so far returned to it voluntarily.

While additional measures can be expected to "control" the Syrian presence in the governorates, with the approach of the election.

But Ankara is certainly aware that this matter will ultimately remain limited and will take a long time, which may extend to years, and therefore it seems that it is preparing itself and the public opinion in it to accept the idea that a good percentage of the Syrians residing in Turkey will remain there in the long term.

This was implied by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's statement about two weeks ago that "whoever learns the Turkish language and is in harmony with the labor market and the customs of society in Turkey can stay and work", while limiting the return/return to those who will fail to meet these conditions.