The small population of giant pandas is at risk of extinction

  Due to the geographical isolation of large rivers and mountains, the fragmentation of giant panda habitats caused by human activities such as high-grade roads, farmland, and urban settlements, more than 1,800 wild giant pandas have also been isolated into 33 local populations.

Among them, there are 259 giant pandas distributed in 25 small populations. Compared with their similar species living in large families, they will face a greater survival dilemma in the future.

  At the beginning of July this year, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced that the threat level of giant pandas has been reduced from endangered to vulnerable, and the endangered status of giant pandas has further eased.

Hearing this news, many netizens began to look forward to a beautiful picture of getting close to "Gungun".

  However, Chinese scientists recently published a paper in "Nature-Ecology and Evolution" and pointed out that in the next 100 years, there will still be 18 giant panda populations with an extinction risk higher than 50%, and 15 giant panda populations with an extinction risk higher than 90%. If the population age structure tends to age, the risk of extinction will further increase.

  "With the planning and establishment of the Giant Panda National Park, my country's giant panda protection has reached a new level, but isolated small populations of giant pandas are still at risk. This status quo needs to be focused on.” Corresponding author of the paper, Chinese Academy of Sciences (hereinafter referred to as Ouyang Zhiyun, a researcher at the Ecological Environment Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from the Science and Technology Daily.

  Population dispersion and climate change increase extinction risk

  What is the "family property" of wild giant pandas in China?

The fourth national survey of giant pandas gave authoritative results: as of the end of 2013, the number of wild giant pandas in my country was 1864.

Compared with the results of the third national survey of giant pandas-1596, the population of wild giant pandas in my country has maintained an overall growth trend.

  However, the number alone is not enough to judge the survival status of the giant panda populations distributed in different regions.

For scientific research, the number of individuals in the population, the age structure and sex ratio of the population, the reproductive ability and survival status of the individuals, etc., will all affect the long-term survival of the population.

Kong Lingqiao, the first author of the paper and an assistant researcher at the Research Center for Ecological Environment of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told the Science and Technology Daily reporter that "the small number of individuals, aging, and gender imbalance will increase the extinction risk of the giant panda population."

  The survey results show that due to the geographical isolation of large rivers and mountains, the fragmentation of giant panda habitats caused by human activities such as high-grade roads, farmland, and urban settlements has resulted in the isolation of more than 1,800 wild giant pandas into 33 local areas. Population.

Among them, there are 259 giant pandas distributed in 25 small populations. Compared with their similar species living in large families, they will face a greater survival dilemma in the future.

  Wild giant pandas mainly live in forests where edible bamboos are distributed from 1200 meters to 3800 meters above sea level.

Because of their strong cold tolerance, giant pandas have certain requirements for climatic conditions and generally do not live in places with lower altitudes and hot climates.

  "Climate change may cause giant panda habitats to move to higher altitudes and to the north, which may lead to greater fragmentation of wild giant panda habitats, and make population isolation worse." Kong Lingqiao predicts: in the most unfavorable hypothesis The existing 33 isolated populations may increase to 56 by 2100, of which 41 isolated populations have a risk of extinction greater than 50%.

  The risks faced by small populations are more prominent

  The giant panda is a rare species unique to China. The Chinese government attaches great importance to the protection of giant pandas and has taken frequent measures.

  In December 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission reported to the 30th meeting of the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reform to consider and approve the "Pilot Scheme for the Giant Panda National Park System"; in January 2017, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council formally issued the pilot In December 2017, the former State Forestry Administration, together with the three provinces of Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Gansu, issued the “Implementation Plan for the Pilot Implementation of the Giant Panda National Park System”, which further clarified the pilot objectives, requirements and division of tasks. The highest level of protection of giant pandas and their habitats is advancing rapidly.

  At present, the Giant Panda National Park is a key area of ​​my country’s ecological security barriers across the Minshan, Qionglai, Daxiangling and Qinling Mountains. The pilot area covers a total area of ​​27,134 square kilometers and contains 1,631 giant pandas from 17 populations, accounting for 87.7% of all wild pandas.

In addition, the Giant Panda National Park is rich in biodiversity, with more than 8,000 wild animals and plants distributed, and it is also one of the hot spots for biodiversity conservation in the world.

  “One of the construction goals of the Giant Panda National Park is to restore the habitat of the giant panda.” Ouyang Zhiyun said, “If the Giant Panda National Park can restore and connect the fragmented habitats, the number of isolated small populations will be greatly reduced.”

  At the same time, there are 16 giant panda populations that have not been included in the protection scope of the national park.

Among them, 12 populations are relatively small, and the risks they face are more prominent.

In particular, the Liangshan population and the small populations in the northern part of Minshan have the most uncertain prospects.

  The long-term survival of the giant panda population requires sufficient food and a suitable environment. In the current wild giant panda population, there is a sufficient number of individuals, a relatively complete and connected habitat, and a population extinction risk with a low degree of disturbance to human activities. Lower.

  Studies have shown that, regardless of external environmental factors such as poaching, logging, grazing, bamboo flowering, natural disasters, and other human activities, if the number of individuals in the giant panda population exceeds 60, the risk of extinction within 100 years is basically zero.

Therefore, speeding up the integration of isolated small populations into the protected area system and increasing the number of individuals in isolated populations have become key measures to reduce the risk of extinction.

  Focus on strengthening habitat restoration and monitoring

  In order to make the wild giant panda population stable and rejuvenated for a long time, rescue protection for each high-risk population is essential.

  "For small populations of wild giant pandas distributed outside the limits of national parks, first consider expanding nature reserves or other types of nature reserves and include them under the umbrella of the national nature reserve system. And actively take measures to restore habitats where small populations are located. , Carry out the construction of corridors to connect them with the surrounding large populations.” Kong Lingqiao said, “for very small populations that cannot be connected due to natural obstacles, they can be reintroduced after scientific evaluation to achieve the rejuvenation of small populations. "

  Moreover, the habitats of small populations in the northern Minshan Mountains under climate change may increase, providing conditions for the reintroduction of giant pandas.

In contrast, the habitats of Liangshan, Daxiangling, and Xiaoxiangling are likely to be fragmented. It is necessary to strengthen the tracking and monitoring of these small populations to reduce the interference of human activities.

It is necessary to scientifically predict the impact of climate change in these regions on the change of the giant panda’s habitat, and to study the scientific methods of reintroduction.

  For wild giant panda populations distributed in national parks, habitat restoration and corridor construction in national parks can be used to take corresponding measures according to the reasons for population isolation.

For the isolation of populations caused by forest destruction and farmland reclamation, the connectivity can be improved through forest restoration and bamboo restoration, while ecological compensation can be implemented to reduce the interference of human activities on the habitat; the population isolation caused by road construction can be reconstituted by building tunnels. Habitats are connected; in addition, the interference of human activities on giant pandas should be reduced or avoided through sound tourism management.

  At present, the protection and management of giant pandas in the Giant Panda National Park need to fully consider the fragmentation of giant panda habitats and its causes, focus on strengthening habitat restoration in areas with severe habitat fragmentation, and strengthen attention to isolated small populations. Monitoring of habitat and population dynamics.

  "Almost all large wild animals are facing the threat of habitat fragmentation." Ouyang Zhiyun said, "I hope that the problems and suggestions we have found in this study can provide references for the protection of other wild animals."