• Live All information about the eruption on La Palma

  • Maurizio Ripepe, volcanologist "Our goal is to anticipate an eruption weeks in advance"

Any aspect of the volcanic eruption on La Palma is arousing enormous interest.

Thanks to the terrestrial observation satellites and the large number of scientific instruments with which the Cumbre Vieja is being monitored, it is being possible to follow its evolution in real time, as well as the trajectory of the volcanic material that it expels since last Sunday it entered eruption.

In the last hours, maps have been offered on the displacement of the cloud with volcanic material from La Palma that, according to estimates made with the satellites of the European Copernicus program, will reach the Iberian Peninsula as of this Wednesday.

According to the maps made, throughout Thursday it will spread through the Levante area until it reaches practically the entire country on Friday.

Thus, Mark Parrington, a scientist with the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, has tweeted an animation from Windy.com, an online application that uses data collected by these European satellites.

The cloud contains remains of particles from the volcano, especially sulfur dioxide (SO2), although in very small quantities so they do not represent a health problem: "It is very important that we not be alarmists with this," he claims in conversation the veteran meteorologist Francisco Martín, who is currently part of the Meteored team, on the phone.

"I wouldn't even call it a cloud. What there is is a plume of sulfur dioxide that the volcano expels," he says.

As Martín explains, this volcano

is not expelling large amounts of CO2 like the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull did

in 2010, or the Pinatubo, in the Philippines.

These volcanoes are eruptive and generated a large amount of CO2.

That of La Palma is of a medium-low type and the material it expels dissolves as it approaches the Peninsula, "he says.

Prediction of the evolution of the plume with sulfur dioxide for Wednesday and Thursday COPERNICUS

From his point of view, "the maps can be alarming because they are integrated vertically, from the surface to the troposphere. When you see them, they are impressive but if you analyze the sulfur dioxide concentrations per meter, the quantities are very dilute."

"You have to tell people that it is not true that there will be acid rains, as has been said. What there is is a small concentration of sulfur dioxide that when it reaches the Peninsula it will be very diluted. If there is any risk for health, the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) would have given a special notice ", he underlines.

Behavior at different altitudes

The maps made by the Canarian delegation of the AEMET detail the prediction for today and tomorrow of the particles and gases emitted by the volcano. As they specify, this material moves differently at different levels depending on the altitude. At 3,000 meters "the trajectory of the emissions is expected to be northeast" and at 5,000 meters "significant concentrations of particles are not expected."

Each volcano behaves differently and the composition of the gases and particles it emits is also different depending on the eruption.

Knowing the distribution of volcanic ash and sulfur dioxide during an eruption, the scientists of the Copernicus program emphasize, is important because they

can affect human activities, in particular the aviation industry,

as it happened for the first time in a massive way with the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, which forced the airspace to close for more than a week, causing huge economic losses.

Without having that scope, other eruptions have caused problems in aviation in specific regions.

Danger to aviation

"The volcanic ash cloud is relevant for aviation

and for this reason its position and evolution is constantly monitored, both with information from the Volcanic Ash Warning Center, and with information provided by other organizations, such as the AEMET forecasts that may influence their displacement ", explains Laura Garcés, director of the ENAIRE Network, the Public Business Entity that manages air navigation in Spain and Western Sahara, Laura Garcés.

"In the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, the same monitoring of the ash cloud was also carried out, and on that occasion the cloud was greater than the one we are detecting so far, both in extension and in altitude," he adds.

The volcanic ash from the Cumbre Vieja is located on the morning of September 22 to the south / southwest of the Island from the surface to approximately 3,000 meters of altitude, and extends about 75 km from the center of the eruption to the most far away.

At least for the moment, the volcanic eruption is not affecting flights that, according to Garcés,

"are operating normally in the Canary Islands area and at all airports, including La Palma Airport."

"At ENAIRE we have activated the procedure for action against volcanic ash in coordination with other organizations such as AESA, AEMET, DGAC, Aena, Eurocontrol among others.

We carry out permanent monitoring of the position of the cloud both in amplitude and altitude, and of how it is evolving,

specifying the direction in which it is moving.This information, which is received from the Volcanic Ash Warning Center, and which is information expressly intended for aviation, we keep updated at all times and disseminate it to the airlines and any other user of the airspace, so that

the safety of the flights is always guaranteed ".

With regard to the dispersion of sulfur dioxide that will affect the Peninsula in the next few hours, Garcés assures that "it does not have the same entity as the volcanic ash cloud for aviation, so monitoring is focusing on it. ".

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