Did the Taliban triumph over the United States of America, or did it fall into a new trap?
Was the document to establish peace in Afghanistan between the Taliban and the United States of America at the end of February 2020 the document of declaring the victory of the Taliban and the defeat of the United States?
Or the circumvention document that will enable the United States to put a ring around the Taliban's neck?
Whatever the estimates and future calculations of the United States, the Taliban won a historic victory over the most powerful country in the world, and with it an international alliance that mankind has never known before, but what will be the result of this victory? How can it be turned into a victory for the entire Afghan nation, and not just for the Taliban? And how can it be invested in rebuilding the state of Afghanistan, a stable, strong, developed and influential country in its regional and international surroundings? While it is a long, arduous and challenging process, it is no less stressful than the years of resistance.
The Taliban achieved a historical military, political, intellectual and security victory, and it has the right to lead the current stage, not to establish the Taliban Emirate, but to establish the secure and stable "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" to which all Afghan people are proud to belong.
Afghanistan is not the Taliban, and managing the authority in the current circumstances is not an easy task. In order for the Taliban to succeed in this, it must first defeat itself as it defeated the United States. Will it do so?
sides of victory
There were many aspects of the victory achieved by the Taliban in its battle with the United States and its international alliance, and it was a military, political, intellectual and security victory par excellence, and we will discuss in the following the most prominent features of these aspects:
1. Military victory
It is difficult to define a consistent standard for measuring military victory, as both warring parties view their own concept of victory, the extent to which victory achieves the objectives of the war, and how both sides evaluate its results. It is clear from the statements of US officials that the Taliban militarily defeated the United States and its alliance, and forced them to withdraw from Afghanistan under its terms; Not because of its military superiority, but because of its resistance, steadfastness, and insistence on its position and demands, and in doing so, it endured many human and logistical losses resulting from the superiority of the military power of America and its alliance. To confirm this military victory, it is sufficient for us to review the speech of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken - in his hearing before members of Congress last Monday on Afghanistan - where he mentioned many phrases that are considered official recognition by the US administration of the Taliban's military victory over the United States and its alliance. Among these phrases:
The Taliban agreed to stop attacking US and partner forces and to refrain from threatening major cities in Afghanistan.
The Taliban continued their relentless march to seize remote outposts, checkpoints, villages and districts, as well as the major roads connecting them.
By January 2021, the Taliban were in their strongest military position since September 11, 2001, and in return we had the lowest number of troops in Afghanistan since then.
It is time to end America's longest war for 20 years, in which it lost 2,641 American soldiers, 20,000 wounded, and $2 trillion.
When President Biden took office, he found himself directly between two choices: either end the war or escalate it.
Had he not abided by the commitment of his predecessor, it would have been possible to resume the attacks on our forces and the forces of our allies, and the Taliban attack could have begun on all of Afghanistan, and on the major cities in it.
This will require sending more US troops to Afghanistan, to defend ourselves, prevent the Taliban from winning, and prevent casualties.
At best, then, the situation would have returned to stalemate, and we would have been stuck in Afghanistan under fire indefinitely.
There is no evidence that our staying there any longer would have made the Afghan security forces or the Afghan government more flexible or self-sufficient.
If 20 years and hundreds of billions of dollars in support, equipment, and training aren't enough, what difference will our survival make for another year, 5 or 10?
On the contrary, there was nothing that strategic rivals such as China and Russia - or opponents such as Iran and North Korea - would have preferred more than the United States escalating the fire of a 20-year war and remaining in the quagmire in Afghanistan for another decade.
When President Biden announced the withdrawal, NATO immediately and unanimously adopted it.
2. Political victory
After a fierce war that lasted for more than 18 years, and after shuttle negotiations that lasted for more than 18 months, the Taliban achieved their full political goals, namely:
Negotiate unilaterally with the United States, one by one, without the participation of the Afghan government or any of the other Afghan components.
Imposing the name of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan on the agreement.
Non-interference in the protection of the Afghan government and the Afghan army.
Providing reassurances to the United States and its alliance that they are confident in implementing what has been agreed upon.
Commit the United States - to a large extent - to the timetable that was signed.
Western (conditional) recognition of them.
Unconditional Russian, Chinese, Indian and Qatari recognition.
3. Intellectual victory
The Taliban did not win militarily and politically only, but their intellectual perceptions of the state, the system of government, and society were victorious based on the provisions of Islamic Sharia. This victory was manifested in the following:
The Afghan states joined them, one after the other, regardless of their ethnic, religious, sectarian, and ideological affiliations.
The surrender of the Afghan army, which is more than 400,000 Afghan soldiers who received intensive modern training, at the hands of the American forces and their coalition, which equipped them with advanced military equipment, and spent tens of billions on them.
This army collapsed without showing any resistance, in a way that contradicted all expectations, comments on this, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the coalition forces in Afghanistan, General Milley, saying: "We have not seen anything that indicates the possibility of the collapse of this Afghan army and government in 11 days."
The entry of prominent figures from previous governments into a dialogue with the Taliban about the next stage, such as former President Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah.
The absence of significant objections, whether popular, elitist, union, ethnic or religious, rejecting the ideological orientation of the Taliban movement.
4. Security victory
What is really strange is the security victory that was achieved in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the US occupation forces and its alliance, and the Taliban's control of the country.
This security victory was represented in extending security throughout the country without any significant transgressions, as if the Taliban had been in control of power for the past two decades.
Investing victory
This victory has many connotations and repercussions, which need a special pause that this article does not accommodate, and it has many interactions whose results have continued, and its succession will continue in the next few months and years.
Among the obvious rules of victory is the victor’s control of the reins of affairs, and the drawing of a road map for the next phase immediately after the victory. Among the priorities for this investment are the following:
Transforming the victory from a victory for the Taliban, into a victory for the Afghan nation, which made exorbitant sacrifices over the past half century, and working to celebrate this victory in all possible ways and means, and to consolidate it in the awareness and conscience of the Afghan people, who lived under a shadow government run by the American occupation for 20 years .
Strengthening security stability, speeding up the restoration of life to normal in all fields, and reassuring the people on every occasion that a new phase has begun in the rule of Afghanistan whose mainstay is stability and development.
Drawing the road map for the next transitional phase, its objectives, its duration, and arranging its actions according to its priority in this phase, which certainly does not have the capacity to do everything.
Establishing a mechanism to communicate with all components of the Afghan people to reflect on the future of Afghanistan, and ways to achieve stability and development and to overcome the upcoming challenges.
Persistently reassuring the United States and the world that the Taliban is committed with the United States and the international community to what has been agreed upon, and that it extends its hand to all regional and international partners, and that it gives priority in the next stage to rebuilding Afghanistan and improving the living conditions of the Afghan people who are tired of the scourge of war.
The Taliban were the spearhead in resisting foreign occupation, for 20 years, until they forced him to withdraw and undo his plans on which he spent huge sums throughout this period.
The Taliban have won militarily, politically, ideologically and security, and they have the right to lead the current stage, not to establish the Taliban Emirate, but to establish the secure and stable "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" to which all Afghan people are proud to belong.
Afghanistan is not the Taliban, and managing power in the current circumstances is not an easy task, and in order for the Taliban to succeed in this, it must first defeat itself, just as it defeated the United States. Will it do so?
As for the secret annexes that were previously discussed between the Taliban and the United States, do not diminish these victories, and the coming days will reveal their truth and what they include, and how the Taliban manages its various files.
(Continued... Was the United States defeated?)