September 11, 2021 could have happened, but an extremely interesting event did not happen - the inauguration of the new Taliban * government of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
Let me remind you that the resuscitation of the Taliban and its legalization were initiated and carried out by the United States.
On February 29, 2020, in the capital of Qatar, Doha, US representatives signed a "historic agreement designed to resolve a military conflict that has lasted for almost 20 years."
(Loud, prolonged applause.)
The whole world remembers what happened next.
The United States began to withdraw its military grouping at a fantastic speed ahead of schedule.
Shining with his heels, President Ashraf Ghani left the country, who recently, in a pathetic interview with the German Der Spiegel, claimed that he "knows that he lives in the same bullet from death."
There is a wonderful snippet in this awesome interview.
A reporter asks President Ghani how long he thinks his government will hold out under Taliban attacks without US support?
- Forever and ever.
If I did anything, it was preparing our forces for this situation.
Well, what happened next, and most importantly - at what speed, we all know.
The Americans even saved $ 6 billion in unspent funds for the rapidly defunct Afghan Security Forces, Bloomberg reported.
In a word, the Taliban so quickly took almost all of Afghanistan, breaking their teeth on the Panjshir, that they soon announced the date of the inauguration - September 11, 2021.
This date is the black day of the anniversary of the bloodiest terrorist attack in US history.
The terrorist attack with the twin towers, in fact, was the reason for the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, where, according to the Pentagon, al-Qaeda fighters were hiding **.
The numbers 11-09 were the number of the US aircraft that took off, from which several young Afghans fleeing from the advancing Taliban authorities fell and crashed to death, hoping in vain to be helped and taken on board.
The following were invited to the inauguration of the Taliban government on September 11, 2021:
1. Turkey
2. China
3. Russia
4. Pakistan
5.Iran
6. Qatar
And that's all.
The Americans, in fact, who threw the bridge of friendship and recognition to the Taliban by organizing a negotiation process with 30 countries in Doha in 2020, were not on the list.
There was no Great Britain actively interacting with Pakistan and Afghanistan.
French Foreign Minister Le Drian nearly sued the French newspaper, which wrote that the French Foreign Ministry secretly maintains contacts with the Taliban government.
And in general, in all honesty, the list of those invited to the inauguration of the Taliban (who sheltered al-Qaeda in 2001 on its territory, therefore, indirectly supported the worst terrorist attack in US history) looked gloating, with black humor.
Well, it is clear that Turkey, like the eternal Figaro, and Qatar will come out dry, but the introduction of Iran, China, Russia and Pakistan looked like a short list of the future US sanctions list.
We are well aware of how it happens: "axis of evil", "support for terrorism" and so on.
The first to come to his senses, surprisingly, was Iran.
Taking advantage of the night bombing of Panjshir by the Pakistani Air Force, the next morning Iranian Foreign Minister Said Khatibzadeh quickly rejected the invitation to the inauguration with an emergency speech:
“Tehran seriously condemns the attacks on Panjshir last night and is studying reports of Pakistani cooperation with the Taliban.
As if Iran was unaware of what happened in the past 20-plus years!
Nevertheless, he promptly organized rallies within the country in support of Panjshir and even urgently named one of the streets of the capital after Panjshir.
Most likely, Tehran was in some way taken by surprise by Pakistan's actions to interfere in the formation of the Afghan government and direct military action on the territory of a neighboring state.
While the Iranians tried to conduct round after round of peace talks, both with the Taliban and with the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, spending time, money and efforts on secret negotiations on post-American Afghanistan, Pakistan decided to attack head-on.
On September 4, 2021, two days before the bombing of Panjshir, possibly the second most important person in Pakistan, the head of the Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid, flew to Kabul.
From the outside, for the uninitiated, it looked like "direct, open interference of Pakistan in the internal affairs of Afghanistan."
Well, in essence it was what it was: the Taliban curator came to sort out some serious situation with the wards at the time of the formation of the Afghan government.
On September 4, the Resistance Front, represented by Speaker Fahim Dashti, publishes a tweet commenting on the arrival of the ISI head in Kabul.
He claims that the purpose of the visit is to reconcile the Quetta Shura with the Haqqani Network (a wing of the Taliban).
Both are the brainchild of Pakistan and ISI.
And also to provide assistance to the Taliban militants in military planning.
Dashti writes that, despite all efforts, the Taliban failed to advance, they are suffering serious losses. "
On the same day, the Taliban announced the postponement of the announcement of the composition of the government for a week.
On September 5, 2021, Resistance Front Speaker Fahim Dashti and many other resistance commanders were killed in overnight Pakistani air strikes.
On September 6, outraged Iran was the first to actually announce its withdrawal from the Six, which was supposed to internationally recognize the new Taliban government.
It can be said that it was with Iran's statement that the recognition of the new government fell.
Soon, Russia "was unable" to attend the inauguration.
In general, Iran, followed by Russia, announced that only an "inclusive" government formed as a result of peace negotiations, and not a forceful seizure of power, could be recognized (it was not even about the Taliban, but about the open military intervention of Pakistan).
China and Pakistan actually remained in proud geopolitical solitude side by side with the Taliban, and therefore it was decided to cancel the inauguration altogether.
As expected, Pakistani-Iranian relations, which had struggled to improve over the past two years, at one point gave a serious crack.
As if irritating Iran, Pakistan announced the
joint exercises of special forces of Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan
in Baku
, scheduled for September 12, 2021
.
The salt was in the fact that for 11 days the Turkish and Pakistani military conducted exercises in the waters of the Caspian Sea, to which both states have nothing to do.
There was no more provocative name for them either - Tree brothers ("Three brothers").
PAKISTAN TURKEY AZERBAIJAN TRILATERAL MILITARY EXERCISES START
BAKU
AZERBAIJAN
Opening ceremony of trilateral military exercises “Three Brothers 2021” was held.
The 11-day exercises will involve special forces from #Azerbaijan, #Pakistan and #Turkey.
After the flags of the pic.twitter.com/eYkTSWICt6
- AEROSINT Division PSF (@PSFAERO) September 12, 2021
As the three newfound brothers dived in the Caspian, Tehran was furious.
The speaker of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Said Khatibzadeh, whom we know, called the exercises of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the Caspian Sea illegal.
"The Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea fully clarifies this issue, and the
five coastal Caspian states have agreed that the military presence of countries other than these five is illegal
.
"
Iran, through Khatibzade's mouth, threatened Pakistan almost openly: “Don't try to make the Taliban an anti-Iranian force.
The Taliban are not all of Afghanistan.
We can more actively support the Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, and we do not do this because we do not want a civil war in Afghanistan. "
But while diplomats choose florid, beautiful expressions, the head of Al-Quds (the IRGC unit responsible for all covert special operations abroad) Ismail Kaani said at closed parliamentary hearings on Afghanistan that "Iran is trying to find a non-military solution for Afghanistan."
This means that the direct military involvement of Pakistan in the Afghan question by its air force is forcing Iran to change its Afghan strategy and now military intervention and direct support of the "brotherly people of Afghanistan" are no longer excluded, although Iran traditionally prefers to act more secretly, covertly and cautiously in its military strategy. ...
Despite the fact that the inauguration did not take place, China, filled with optimism, accelerated its partnership with Pakistan at an accelerated pace, reviving all projects at once.
To hell, they say, this is the international community.
Winners are not judged.
Great honor to share the viewpoints with HE Prime Minister Imran Khan @ImranKhanPTI and other cabinet members in regard to promoting Chinese investment in Pakistan.
pic.twitter.com/0CR1H3vnYw
- Nong Rong (@AmbNong) September 13, 2021
While the whole world turns up its nose about the lack of inclusiveness of the new government, Pakistan, having bombed the Panjshir and pushed Iran away from parity co-management, appointed the Pakistani mullah Haji Muhammad Idris as the head of the Central Bank of Afghanistan (a teacher in a madrasah in Rawalpindi, where the headquarters of the Pakistani army is located, as it launches the Chinese projects) hot cakes.
But here Pakistan and China can expect serious problems.
On September 13, while the Three Brothers are warming up in Baku, the country's westernmost airport, Juzzak, was officially opened in Pakistan.
A very interesting airport that will operate domestic flights from Juzzak to Karachi and transport Chinese engineers to key infrastructure facilities that China is building in Pakistan as part of the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor).
PIA (Pakistani Airways) aircraft will carry the Chinese working on the Saindak copper and gold project back and forth.
Pakistan is also happily reporting on the first commercial flights after the Taliban takeover to Kabul (as it seems to be its inner province).
Everything would be wonderful on this celebration of life, if not for the fact that Juzzak is located in the province of Baluchistan, which Pakistan and Iran share 900 kilometers of the most difficult and dangerous border.
Baloch separatists are fighting for independence from both Iran and Pakistan.
And they have taken over almost all attacks and terrorist attacks against the Chinese in Pakistan in recent years.
As well as other terrorist attacks against IRGC employees or Pakistani military personnel.
Baluchis are nomads, mostly Sunnis, living in poverty - both in Shiite Iran and in Pakistan.
It is only 11 kilometers from Juzzak airport to the Iranian border.
“The head of Pakistani intelligence is involved in the attack on the Panjshir Valley and in the formation of the Taliban cabinet.
Iran should not allow Pakistan to play the US role in Afghanistan, ”an Iranian MP told the Tehran Times, and the news instantly became dynamite for international diplomatic news.
Iranian MP: Pakistan's ISI head is involved in #PanjshirValley offensive as well as the formation of the Taliban cabinet.
pic.twitter.com/5FpUcQdLN9
- Tehran Times (@ TehranTimes79) September 12, 2021
Translated into simply human it sounded like "I declare war on you."
Of course, no one will fight openly, but in the near future it is logical to expect a brutal Iranian-Pakistani political war, a battle between their proxies and intelligence services (which pushes Iran into the Indian-American bloc and, by the way, accelerates the chances of a nuclear deal with the United States).
Pakistani state think tank publishes response to Iran by posting a photo of Iranian spy drone Qods Mojaher 2 shot down on August 11, 2021 in Afghan Farah, located 100 kilometers from the Iranian border.
The joyful Taliban put the downed Iranian "Mujahir" into a Toyota pickup truck and take friendly photos with it in the background.
"Guess who is interfering in the affairs of Afghanistan?"
And then he repost next to a Pakistani journalist with the words: "If Pakistan does not stop them, they will start shooting down commercial planes."
Official Islamabad calls for the launch of international investigations into the intervention of the IRGC in Yemen, Syria and Iraq.
In a word, as it was predicted, with the coming of the Taliban to power, the chaos has not ended, but is just beginning.
The main thing for Russia is to take an equidistant position in the upcoming fight between Iran and Pakistan.
We have good diplomatic relations with both of them, and it is hardly worth changing that.
* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.
**
"Al-Qaeda" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated 02.14.2003.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.