So, now officially the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which for so long worried the minds not only in Russia and the Old World, but also in Ukraine, Poland and the United States, is finally physically completed. On an early Baltic morning last Friday, September 10, 2021, the last seams were welded and pipes were laid - all in strict accordance with the project. That the official announcement of the operator company was reflected not without even a touch of European bureaucratic poetry.

We will not deny ourselves the pleasure of quoting: “Today, the sections of the second string of Nord Stream 2, running from the coast of Germany and from the waters of Denmark, were interconnected with the help of an overwater overhang. The ends of the sections stretching from opposite sides were lifted from the seabed above the sea surface by the pipe-laying barge "Fortuna", cut to the required length and connected. The weld was made on a surface platform, fixed on the outside of the ship's side, after which a single completed pipeline was submerged to the seabed ”(Nord Stream 2 AG official communication). In general, let us joke: “and this abyss swallowed her,” as the wonderful artist Alexander Abdulov translated from Italian, in the famous, still Soviet comedy, a funny song about the hardships of unrequited Russian-European love.

And, as it was rightly noted in the same official statement of the Nord Stream 2 AG company, all this is subordinated to the very practical and prosaic task of “putting the gas pipeline into operation before the end of the current year”.

After that, the most interesting will begin in the European, at least, energy sector.

The symbolism of the launch of a new gas pipeline lies precisely in the fact that it, as it were, completes the picture of the changes that have occurred on the energy map of Europe in recent decades, and in such a way that this will inevitably affect not only the economic, but also the political map of the old European subcontinent.

Let's try to explain why.

Nord Stream 2, of course, if viewed as a “separate project”, does not have any practical political significance at all. It's just (and here the Chancellor Angela Merkel is absolutely right) quite a successful commercial project. Moreover, it is more "politically correct" European (to be honest - German) than Russian. Allowing not only to decently reduce the length of the pumping route (and from Yamal to Germany along the "northern corridor" through Yamal-Europe and the North European gas pipeline with access to Ust-Luga, whatever one may say, but still much closer than in a roundabout way through Ukraine and Slovakia), but also to secure transportation as tightly as possible: in this configuration, the gas pipeline simply does not go stupidly through territories with unstable regimes. The commercial benefits are obvious to all project participants, and there is no political component.But this is only if you look at Nord Stream 2 as an exclusively separate project. Which he is certainly not for us, or even for the Germans.

Moreover.

Just an ordinary arithmetic operation of adding up the capacities of Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2, the route of which for some reason has its final point in Germany, makes it possible to understand that the Germans will now control about 110 billion cubic meters (in fact, even a little more) of the annual traffic of Russian natural gas to European markets.

And this, of course, with some amendments, is approximately the same transit volume that allowed, in particular, the owners of the Ukrainian GTS in good times for Ukraine to freely keep both a Russian supplier and a European consumer in an interesting place.

And the fact that the Germans will not take advantage of this opportunity to reformat European energy markets, for our taste, is somewhat naive even to assume.

And this, by the way, does not mean at all that the Ukrainian "pipe" will be empty.

On the contrary, Merkel and Putin are telling the holy true truth: the Russian Federation is impeccably fulfilling the current agreement between Gazprom and the Ukrainian side and intends to strictly implement it in the future.

In full agreement with the Federal Republic of Germany, by the way.

And, rest assured, it will certainly prolong it, if, of course, the technical condition of the Ukrainian GTS allows it.

And he will do it not out of love for the "Ukrainian elites", but for much more mundane and pragmatic reasons.

Just if you take an unbiased look at these 40 billion cubic meters per year of "Ukrainian transit" provided for by the current agreement, then much becomes so clear that the logic of the Russian and German sides does not even make much sense to explain to anyone. For Ukraine still does not buy (and now, apparently, will no longer) Russian gas directly, and its internal annual consumption is equal to plus or minus (the economy there collapses rapidly, and with it the energy consumption, so we find it difficult to give more precise figures ) 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. And taking into account the fact that domestic Ukrainian production is mostly commercial and is being exported, the remainder of 40 billion cubic meters (minus 30 billion) is just enough for Moldova and Transnistria (well, a little more remains for Slovakia).To which the Russian Federation also has certain special obligations, and on whose markets Germany, as a new basic transit country for Russian gas to Europe, does not claim even in a nightmare.

For it is corny it is not profitable for her - that's all.

The point here, if you look at the problem from the point of view of European energy security, is not at all about whether the pumping is going on along certain routes or not.

And solely in whether the volume of this transit is critical for the markets from the point of view of potential blackmail, which, in particular, Ukraine liked to indulge in when it was able to do it.

And neither the supplier nor the consumer was satisfied with this, of course.

Now this problem seems to have been more or less solved.

The trouble on the European energy markets (as always happens, unexpectedly) crept from the other side.

Europe has objectively lost the race for LNG to Southeast Asia, and against this background, the global LNG market has become scarce from surplus.

Asians are simply killing Europe at the cost.

And given the rapid recovery and growth of Asian markets, this problem is not even for one year.

And if we also count here a sharp reduction in our own production ... For people who understand, it is enough to say the word "Groningen": no, everyone understood that everything was not very good at the largest European field, but what was so bad, did not want to believe, in general- then, nobody.

And if we also add to this delicious cocktail the refusal of the same Germany from nuclear and eventually coal generation, then it’s just right not to free Nord Stream 2 from the Third Energy Package, but to talk about the speedy construction of Nord Stream 3 (or even Nord Stream 4). negotiate immediately.

And there is no need to invent anything - just look at the prices on European spots, which just yesterday exceeded $ 760 at the moment.

Plus, look at the occupancy rate specifically at the current time of European UGS facilities.

So - design and build immediately.

If, of course, we can persuade the Russians.

That will be very, very difficult: Gazprom now has slightly different priorities - it is strictly directed to work on domestic markets, where, from the point of view of the state authorities, the Russian gas monopoly is clearly underrepresented.

And China is asking for another gas pipeline, plus LNG, judging by the planned construction of a plant in Ust-Luga, Gazprom is also very interested in: the recent success of NOVATEK was too indicative.

In a word, Europe is undoubtedly still an extremely important partner for Gazprom in new promising projects.

But already, let's say, it is a little not the main priority.

However, this is another question and a topic for a separate conversation.

If we simply comment on the completion of the physical construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, then all that remains is to congratulate our German partners: they, having displaced the unstable and therefore extremely unreliable “young Ukrainian democracy” from the transit markets, have actually become the main hub for Russian energy carriers in Europe.

And this is, at least, a completely different format of energy security for the entire European continent.

And the Russian Federation is much more pleasant to see in this role pragmatic and, although not always pleasant, but always more or less understandable Germans, than absolutely unpredictable and incapable of negotiation "players" from Kiev Bankova.

Who, moreover, are stupidly unable to answer for their words, because they are not sovereign.

And to consider them in a medium-term historical perspective, even from the point of view of the banal existence of a responsible state, is somehow completely ridiculous.

In a word, the picture of the European world that is taking shape before our eyes after the completion of the construction of Nord Stream 2, at least in the field of energy, is more or less clear, although the details are still incredibly confusing - and thus especially curious.

But it should be ruthlessly clear to any interested observer that nothing is over yet.

The Show Must Go On.

The show goes on.

It must continue.

And we have only a positive, yes, but still an intermediate, and not the final result in a really large and extended game.

Which will continue despite the loss of some "players".

However, I'm not sure that, for example, Ukraine in this sense (in its past role as “coordinator of European gas transit”) is that in Russia, that in Europe someone will miss.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.