Robert Malley, President Biden's special envoy for Iran, paid an almost secret visit to Moscow yesterday.
And this suggests that, perhaps, a shift has been outlined in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program and the return of Tehran to the deal.
I dedicated a column to Rob Malli.
“In November, as soon as it became clear that Joe Biden had won the US elections, it immediately became known who would deal with the Iranian and, in general, the entire Middle East dossier in his new administration,” I wrote in January 2021.
Mally's appointment was preceded by battles in the US Congress, in the American and Israeli media.
And with exactly the same force with which the Republicans rebelled against the appointment of Malli, Iran lobbied him.
“It is deeply troubling that President Biden is considering the appointment of Rob Mulley, as Mully has long demonstrated his benevolent attitude toward the Iranian regime and hostility toward Israel,” then Republican Senator Tom Cotton wrote.
The American hawks also wrote a collective letter to Tony Blinken, the new US Secretary of State, in which they asked not to appoint Malli, but to choose a more neutral candidate, warning that this would upset the balance of power in the Middle East and cause great alarm among American partners in the region - Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.
But what happened happened: Rob Mally was approved.
Tehran exhaled.
Only after taking office, Malli got down to business: he began to prepare a return to the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), which he was preparing at the same time, in 2015, from the side of the administration of President Barack Obama.
Robert Mally was one of the architects of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal
Reuters
© Brendan Smialowski
But in Iran itself, dramatic events of the struggle for power took place - with President Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Javad Zarifov, the IRGC fought in a lion's fight, which eventually won: Khamenei did not give Rouhani permission to sign a deal with the Americans.
Because to conclude a nuclear deal with the United States is like hitting the jackpot in a political casino in Iran.
The transit of power in Iran was difficult - against the background of social protests, general impoverishment, and the deepest economic crisis.
And while Rouhani was leaving, and the newly elected President Raisi took over the affairs and formed the government, negotiations on the deal were stopped.
Iran officially referred to the transfer of power: they say, until everything is settled here, we will not return to negotiations.
And in three summer months, he increased the production of uranium enriched to 60% by four times.
Everyone understands why Tehran is playing for time.
And without discussing here whether Iran has the right to possess nuclear weapons or not (Pakistan, which created the Taliban * and many other terrorist groups, for example, has it), I will only emphasize that the “Iranian question” is causing a violent reaction in Israel, during many Arab countries and the United States itself.
On the other hand, the doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran implies the destruction of the State of Israel, which, you see, also makes the residents of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa nervous.
Joey Hood, US Assistant Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs: “Tehran will never get nuclear weapons, regardless of the outcome of negotiations to reopen the nuclear deal with Iran.
The US continues to use diplomacy as its first tool.
We must return to negotiations, we must return to the JCPOA. "
That is why, in fact, Rob Malley flew to Moscow.
Ask Moscow to return Iran to the negotiating table.
It may seem strange to some why the United States is trying to persuade the mullahs to sit down at the negotiating table.
For the Americans have absolutely no gesheft from this.
Moreover, history knows examples of how quickly the Americans brought the Japanese Prime Minister Kantaro Suzuki and Emperor Hirokito to the negotiating table and "forced into peace" in 1945.
But persuading the Ayatollahs to sign a nuclear deal is such an old custom of the US Democratic Party.
That is, no, first the president from the Democratic Party Jimmy Carter brought the mullahs to power in 1979, and only then other democratic presidents periodically try to persuade them not to make an atomic bomb, and they all solemnly give each other mutual promises that they themselves destroy, and then ask the "witnesses" to participate in the reconciliation.
Well, that's the case too.
And Biden's special envoy for Iran flew to Moscow yesterday to ask Russia to help them in this matter.
We do not know with whom the special envoy of the US President for Iran met in Moscow, we can only assume the stellar level of the meetings, knowing the personal level of Malli, whom in 2015 NBC TV channel called “the king of ISIS” (“Islamic State”) **.
Why Malli is so keen to strike a deal with Iran, why is helping Iran now firmly establish itself in Iraq, and how he can “kill” and “resurrect” the Islamic State ** - this is the next column.
Let's go back to Moscow.
Officially, the arrival of Biden's envoy to Iran was supervised by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
But with Ryabkov, Malli had a repeated opportunity to meet and talk, whether on the fields of negotiations in Vienna, or at the UN, or anywhere.
Therefore, it can be assumed that the level of the meeting was higher than that of an ordinary meeting at the Foreign Ministry.
Ryabkov testified: “The Iranian nuclear program is developing.
I emphasize that Iran's actions in this direction are reversible and a return to the original "factory settings" of the JCPOA is possible. "
Mr. Ryabkov was imaginative and intelligible and clearly formulated Tehran's message for the one who makes decisions on the nuclear deal in Tehran.
Namely, for Mr. Khamenei:
“The train needs to be sent from the station at which it stopped, no side tracks, or even more so some kind of reverse course, are probably not just unnecessary in this situation, but they are counterproductive.
And if
someone
wants to nullify the prospects for continuing the negotiation process altogether, then yes, this is the way to go. "
In general, the situation is quite paradoxical.
The political realities of today's Iran are such that President Raisi cannot be active on the topic of the nuclear deal, otherwise well-wishers from the terrarium of like-minded people will quickly write him down as American or Israeli spies, as happened with the Rouhani government.
Therefore, the mission "to persuade Khamenei" is entrusted to the President of Russia.
For Moscow and President Putin, the situation is ideal: in order to persuade the Iranian leader, the Americans bow to him.
Putin has always aspired to the role of arbiter and mediator between the West (USA) and the bad boys, be it Assad's "disarmament" or the Iranian nuclear program.
US Special Representative for Iran Robert Mally (pictured in a white shirt)
© AP / Florian Schroetter
Officially, Rob Malley in Moscow offered the Russian Federation to sign a resolution against Tehran for its refusal to return to negotiations on a nuclear deal and fourfold (only official) enrichment to 60% uranium over the past three months.
Since Malli flew to Moscow after a Paris meeting with representatives of France, Great Britain and Germany, it is obvious that the resolution can really materialize and will greatly complicate Iran's way out of the impasse and relations with the EU and China.
Moscow, of course, refused to sign a resolution against Iran (and Malli, of course, knew about this in advance), urging not to put pressure on Tehran.
Simultaneously, President Raisi gave a public signal that he was ready to resume negotiations, but without "putting pressure".
What an amazing coincidence!
I think that in the near future we will see how Putin will act as a mediator between Washington and Tehran - and the negotiation process on the deal can be launched.
Putin will urge Iran to negotiate, Khamenei will listen, Malli will get the deal, and while the negotiations drag on, Iran may well reach the logical conclusion of its nuclear program.
After all, while everything is going according to the plan of the Iranian hawks - the lifting of sanctions and the nuclear deal were planned by them at the end of 2021.
* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.
* "Islamic State" (IS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.