Big data on the aging of Chinese cities: 149 cities are deeply aging, concentrated in these provinces

  At present, 149 cities across the country have entered a deep aging process, which is concentrated in the Northeast region, Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the central region, and the Yangtze River Delta.

  China's aging is accelerating, but the situation faced by different regions and cities is quite different.

  According to internationally accepted standards, when a country or region’s population of 65 years and over exceeds 7%, it means that it is aging; it reaches 14%, which is a deep aging; if it exceeds 20%, it enters a super-aging society.

  According to data from the seventh national census, a reporter from China Business News reported on 336 prefecture-level and above cities (including municipalities directly under the Central Government, cities under separate state planning, provincial capitals, ordinary prefecture-level cities, prefectures, and prefectures) other than Sansha City. After sorting out the age composition of the population of the Union, hereinafter referred to as "cities"), it is found that 149 cities across the country have entered a deep ageing population, which is more concentrated in the Northeast region, Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the central region, and the Yangtze River Delta.

149 City Deeply Aging

  Statistics show that in 2020, 149 prefecture-level and listed populations accounted for more than 14% of the population aged 65 and over, entering a deep ageing population.

  In terms of regional distribution, among the 149 cities, 41 are from the eastern coastal region, accounting for 27.5%; 36 in the northeast region, accounting for 24.2%; 72 in the central and western regions, accounting for 48.3%.

Generally speaking, the cities with deep aging are concentrated in the northeast region, the central region, the Yangtze River Delta, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.

  In terms of provinces, 149 cities are distributed in 22 provinces, of which 7 provinces have 10 or more deeply aging cities.

Among them, Sichuan has 17 deeply aging cities, ranking first in number.

This is mainly due to the large number of prefectures, cities and states in Sichuan, and the population of prefectures and cities has flowed to the developed coastal areas. In recent years, with the rapid economic development of the provincial capital Chengdu, a large number of people have also flowed into Chengdu.

  Statistics show that Chengdu is the only provincial capital and sub-provincial city with a population of over 20 million. Among all cities in the country, Chengdu is second only to the three municipalities directly under the Central Government, namely Chongqing, Shanghai and Beijing, and ranks fourth.

In 2020, the permanent population of Chengdu in the seventh national census reached 20,937,800, accounting for 25.02% of the province’s total permanent population, an increase of 6.22 percentage points from the sixth national census in 2010 (including Jianyang, the same below); In 2010, an increase of 5.8189 million people, an increase of 38.49%, an average annual increase of 581,900 people, an average annual growth rate of 3.31%, 0.18 percentage points higher than the average annual growth rate of the previous decade.

  A reporter from China Business News found that Chengdu’s increase of 5.8189 million people ranks third after the two first-tier cities, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, among all cities in the country.

  According to the analysis of the Sichuan Provincial Statistics Bureau, the population of the province has further gathered in Chengdu, the first city in the past ten years.

From the city (state) data, the trend of population gathering in the central city is more obvious.

The data shows that in terms of five major economic zones, compared with the sixth national census in 2010, the proportion of permanent residents in the Chengdu Plain Economic Zone and Panxi Economic Zone in the province has increased by 4.25 percentage points and 0.10 percentage points, respectively. The proportion of permanent residents in the Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone and the Northwest Sichuan Ecological Demonstration Zone decreased by 1.44 percentage points, 2.74 percentage points and 0.17 percentage points respectively.

  A similar situation exists in Hunan, Anhui, and Hubei in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.

For example, a total of 12 cities in Hunan and Anhui in the central region are deeply aging, and there are 9 cities in Hubei.

One of the major reasons is the outflow of young and middle-aged people, and the working-age population accounts for a relatively low proportion, so the elderly population accounts for a high proportion.

  Ye Qing, a professor at Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, analyzed China Business News that the central region is closer to the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In recent years, the construction of high-speed rail networks has further shortened the space-time distance. With rapid development and abundant employment opportunities, the population of many prefectures and cities has moved to provincial capitals.

  As a result, the age structure of the capital cities of Sichuan and the most populous provinces in central China is still relatively young.

The proportion of the population aged 65 and over in provincial capital cities is mostly below 14%, and the proportion of working-age population is still relatively high.

  In contrast, the degree of aging in the Northeast is deeper. Data shows that there are 36 cities in the three provinces of Northeast China, all of which have entered the stage of deep aging.

  Yi Baozhong, a professor at the Northeast Asia Research Institute of Jilin University, analyzed by China Business News that enterprises in the Northeast are mainly state-owned enterprises, and many employees are in state-owned enterprises, administrative institutions, and family planning is relatively strict. In addition, the industrialization of Northeast The conversion rate and education level are relatively high, and the concept of raising children to prevent the elderly is relatively indifferent, similar to the rural areas. In addition, the Northeast is an immigrant society, which is relatively less affected by traditional fertility concepts. The overall birth rate and fertility rate are relatively low.

  According to Yibaozhong’s analysis, due to the economic downturn in the Northeast in recent years, there are not many job opportunities, so the young population continues to flow out. Whether they are admitted to college or not, many of them go to the southeast coast for employment, which will also affect the age structure of the population. .

The degree of aging in Guangdong, Fujian and other places is relatively low

  There are also many deeply aging cities in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang in the east.

Among them, 14 of the 16 prefectures and cities in Shandong Province have entered deep aging. The other two cities, Zaozhuang and Liaocheng, are also very close to the standard for deep aging.

At present, Shandong has 15.36 million people aged 65 and over, making it the province with the largest population of elderly people in the country.

  From the perspective of the three age groups, Shandong presents the characteristics of "high at both ends and low in the middle", that is, the proportion of working-age population is relatively low, and the proportion of elderly population and children is relatively high. This is also related to the population exodus in Shandong in recent years.

  Of the 13 cities in Jiangsu, the second largest economic province, 10 cities have been deeply aging.

Among them, aging in central Jiangsu, such as Nantong, Taizhou, and Yangzhou, is the most prominent.

Niu Fengrui, a researcher at the Urban Development and Environmental Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed to a reporter from China Business News that the relatively high degree of aging in Central Jiangsu and Yancheng in northern Jiangsu is related to the stricter implementation of family planning in the past and the higher proportion of only children.

In addition, many young people in this area also flow to Shanghai, Suzhou and other places, so the degree of aging has increased.

  Ding Changfa, an associate professor in the Department of Economics of Xiamen University, analyzed by China Business News that Jiangsu and Zhejiang have always been economically developed regions in China, especially Jiangsu, where urbanization was earlier, the standard of living was relatively high, and the concept of fertility has also undergone great changes.

  Tang Hairu, deputy chairman of the Expert Committee of the Hangzhou Planning Commission, analyzed from China Business News that from the general law of economic development, the more developed the economy, the more obvious the declining birthrate.

On the one hand, personal energy is limited and I hope to devote more energy to the improvement of living standards; on the other hand, in economically developed areas, the cost of education for children is also rising.

  Among the 11 prefectures and cities in Zhejiang, 6 prefectures and cities have been deeply aging, mainly in northern Zhejiang and the coast of Hangzhou Bay.

Tang Hairu said that in the past, family planning in northern Zhejiang and along the coast of Hangzhou Bay was relatively strict, and the birth rate was relatively low, so the aging rate was relatively higher.

Wenzhou and Taizhou in southeastern Zhejiang have relatively strong traditional concepts, with relatively higher fertility rates and relatively low aging.

  In other words, the traditional concept of fertility has a significant impact on the fertility rate and aging degree of a place.

Compared with the developed areas of the Yangtze River Delta, the aging degree of Guangdong, Fujian and Wentai in southeast Zhejiang is relatively low.

The data shows that among the 21 cities in Guangdong, only one city, Meizhou, has entered a deep aging process.

Among the nine cities in Fujian, only Nanping, a mountainous city in northern Fujian, has experienced deep aging.

Influenced by traditional concepts, these places have relatively high fertility rates.

  In addition, including the Pearl River Delta and the coast of Fujian, there is a large influx of foreign population, so the degree of aging is relatively low.

For example, Shenzhen has a population of 565,217 people aged 65 and above, accounting for 3.22%, making it the lowest city in the country.

In addition, the proportion of Dongguan is only 3.54%, the second lowest in the country; the proportion of cities such as Xiamen and Zhongshan is also very low.

  Author: Lin Xiaozhao