The French extras are again for their own, very soon next year there will be a duel between Macron and Le Pen. What a word. Duel. For me personally, it rather reminds me of our great Pushkin, who, by the way, was killed by a Frenchman. Yes, and Lermontov, too, for the first time tried to shoot the son of the French ambassador. Our intellectual-patriotic elite did not go well with the French. And how many more deep lines could be written ... But that is history. And I'm talking about the future.
Presidential elections are coming in France. And to be honest, I think the chances of victory of the leader of the "National Association" Marine Le Pen are very doubtful to me. Her finest hour was then, at the last vote, in 2017. But she, being a brilliant speaker, for some reason failed the debate before the decisive second round, as a result, the hesitant, of which there were many, took the side of the young and clear (judging by the debates) president, who put the entire economic program on the shelves in such a way that even people far from politics and management, everything sounded logical and understandable. Which of this has succeeded in practice is another question.
But, returning to the upcoming vote, polls show that more than 20% of voters are ready to vote for Le Pen today. This is still its same stable electorate, which does not change much over the years, and in the last regional elections it turned out to be either lazy (and therefore did not come to the polls), or disappointed. Her party, unexpectedly for many predictors, turned out to be far from the leaders, despite the polls. How many words were there on the topic of a protective barrier that all parties are ready to arrange, just not to let it into power. But the fervor of Macron's spiteful critics and disgruntled party members gradually cools down as the vote approaches. And the president himself is gradually accelerating the rating and is already bypassing Le Pen.
On the one hand, it is delaying the votes of promising parties - take, for example, the green ones. It takes the initiative away from them and passes it off as his own. What is the proposal to hold a whole referendum on the inclusion of the environmental agenda in the country's constitution. I decided to ask the people what they think about protecting the environment and improving their lives. Well, what can people think, let's make everything dirtier and worse? Of course not. A win-win step. True, it is useless, because in fact, a similar wording already exists in the country's basic law, so it never came to any general polls, but it got an informational shot.
Macron now has the image of a president who cares about the environment.
He does not skimp on trips - he visited the most remote regions of the republic - in French Polynesia, which for almost 40 years was a nuclear test site, only local residents were not warned about the radioactive danger at that time.
For which, by the way, they recently filed a lawsuit against France.
In 2017, the majority in Polynesia was held by the right - François Fillon and Marine Le Pen.
Now Macron has entered the game.
When he was there, he talked for an hour about the fact that the whole truth about the trials should be revealed, compensation paid, but did not apologize, although people were already completely satisfied without it.
And now Macron has arrived on a visit to Marseille for as many as three days.
Why is such a long stop so important?
Because this city has been on the front pages in recent months.
In the already very troubled point of France - the explosive growth of crime. Shooting with machine guns and settling scores between drug gangs have become so commonplace that people are dying every week. Increasingly, adolescents are involved in such showdowns, and they add to the lists of victims. And what about the police, you ask? The police arrive at the scene when everything is over. The city is in the hands of drug lords, and they set the rules.
It is difficult for a stranger to get to the northern quarters, which are divided into zones of influence. Firstly, at every corner there are "ferrets" - all black-clad lookouts, which protrude like animals at the sight of an unknown car. The alert chain works at lightning speed, they receive several tens of euros a day for their work. They work well, because there are many applicants for their place. Some streets are blocked off with garbage cans, they will not be allowed there at all, there are sentries at the bins. Emergency doctors often complain about this, for it is very difficult for them to get to the sick, while you explain, persuade, and so on, precious time is wasted.
Police officers are generally advised not to meddle in such areas once again, it infuriates them, but at the same time they understand the futility of patrolling. The risk to their lives is great, and the interception of the seller with a couple of grams of powder will not greatly affect the flow of drugs that rolls through the southern gates of France.
Add to this the question of emergency housing. Yes, there is such a thing in France too. Houses built in the 18th century, which miraculously survived the bombing of World War II, are now in need of major repairs. In November 2018, two of them collapsed, dragging the third with them. People died, a ten-year-old boy was left an orphan - he went to school and never saw his mother again. It was a shock for the poorer quarters of the center, where houses are riddled with cracks and need repairs. At the same time, the mayor's office is aware of the problem, but for a long time turned a blind eye to it. Many schools are in the same state. Somewhere the ceiling is crumbling, somewhere rats and cockroaches are running around, a cold wind blows through the cracks in winter, children are sitting in jackets and sweaters.
Another problem of the city is the hopeless pull. As one Algerian told me, if you are an immigrant from North Africa, then you are generally treated well as long as you are a servant of the French gentlemen. It is extremely difficult to break through anywhere, everywhere only your own people, and competence is of absolutely no interest to anyone, the main thing is whose you are. And also racism, strong social stratification, a bunch of problems. And now Macron is holding a separate meeting with the police (for the most part, they vote for Le Pen). He says what they want to hear: that not everything that was conceived succeeded, then words of support, words about the inadmissibility of zones prohibited for the police, about honor, courage, the desire to restore order and cash injections.
The President is meeting with residents of the northern regions, who are also not happy to live under the control of the drug mafia. Well, what parent would want his child to die from a machine gun fire at the age of 16. But there is no alternative now. And the president promises her. People tell him that the money will not reach the point, they will saw it. He listens, promises to control. Gives timeline: October, February. True, there is not much time before the elections, but one new sports club is enough for people there to believe in the possibility of changes. Macron promises to renovate schools and announces an incredible investment in the second largest city in France - € 1.5 billion. He also discusses migration, security, and the same ecology. I don't know who his advisers are, but they are very competent strategists and experts in the pre-election business.
Of course, it is easier for him to conduct covert campaigning during his official visits.
Other candidates need more money to look for such trips.
But his trips are clearly scheduled and hit right on target.
All of these moves are against the backdrop of the still shattered left and undecided right.
The Republicans have several figures who are ready to represent the party in the presidential elections, among them the head of the Ile-de-France region Valerie Pécresse and the former French Foreign Minister, who is also the former European Commissioner and the EU's chief negotiator on Brexit, 70-year-old Michel Barnier.
There is also a dark horse, philosopher Eric Zemmour, columnist for Le Figaro.
He is expected in this race, although he himself has not officially announced anything.
Right-wing leader in the 2017 race, François Fillon, has now suddenly got another corruption case, so that he no longer even thinks of participating in political activities.
So far, the most popular candidates are Macron and Le Pen.
For him, reaching the second round with such a composition guarantees victory, and he should be afraid of getting into the next round of the moderate right, for which those who are disappointed with Macron's policy of coercion and restriction in the covid years will certainly go to vote.
But they still need to rally around a single coordinated figure, otherwise it will be difficult to compete.
So for now, having such a powerful apparatus and the support of globalists, the current president, if he wishes, can win and stay for a second term.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.