To be honest, nothing so completely unexpected happened in the German court last Wednesday.
No one - at least among sane people - expected any other decision of the appellate instance of the Supreme Land Court of the glorious German city of Dusseldorf, successfully adopted on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and the EU's Third Energy Package, in the Russian expert community.
What is called, it would be stupid.
Firstly, we are already here, in Russia, and not to this, sorry, we are used to it and have adapted ourselves. Life, sorry, forced. Secondly, in addition to the somewhat illusory, for our taste, ideas of the European bureaucracy, including the judiciary, about how “everything should really be”, in accordance with the true “market values” and other “democratic ideals”, which the European bureaucracy so resolutely defends, there is also the so-called real spot gas market. Quite a stock exchange, with deliveries "the next day" - and completely independent of either Russia or the Russian "extremely authoritarian" Gazprom with its insidious gas supplies. The market, which, as they say, reacts in real time to the changing rules of the game.
And, in particular, after the decision of the appellate court in Dusseldorf, gas prices there jumped by about $ 55 per cubic meter.
And this was, perhaps, the best response of the real market to what is happening in the gloomy Kafkaesque corridors of European justice.
However, let's go in order.
So.
The day before yesterday, August 25, 2021, the Supreme Regional Court of the city of Dusseldorf dismissed the complaint of Nord Stream AG, the operator of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, against the decision of the German regulator not to withdraw the project from the EU gas directive, according to which the pipeline entering the EU must either partially filled by an alternative supplier (which in the case of Russian gas pipelines, including Nord Stream 2, as you understand, is unrealistic), or its fragment on the territory of the union must belong to a third-party company (you will laugh, Ukraine has already offered its services, but it is unlikely in Europe will be happy about it). Which, in general, also contradicts even the fundamental rules of the market: people have invested money - people should receive from this investment.
But such "trifles" in Europe, which is still diligently trying to educate you and me about the market and its rules, have long been ignored.
As, however, has been happening lately, let us note aside, and with us.
But in our, Russian case, it is rather even good - at least from the point of view of purely everyday economic pragmatics.
We will not explain why, but rather return to our gas conflict.
The European company Nord Stream 2 AG, of course, was strongly indignant about this decision of the European court, quite rightly stating through the European media that “the rejection of the application for an exception demonstrates the discriminatory effect of the amended EU gas directive. As of the effective date of the amendments on May 23, 2019, the gas pipeline was completed in terms of financial support. Based on the legal framework in force at the time, the company made an investment of several billion euros long before the European Commission announced its plan to amend. ” And in this righteous anger of his, the operator of the European gas pipeline being completed, we will agree, is absolutely right: they are really trying to discriminate against him right now.
And, accordingly, the operator was absolutely right when, literally the next day, he announced that he would appeal - now to the federal court, since the legislation allows it.
In general, let us emphasize again, everything is absolutely clear and expected.
And it remains only to understand why in this situation the Russian giant Gazprom, representing our country in this dispute, is so unperturbed, whose interests in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline are quite obvious.
And the decision of the court in Dusseldorf seems to cause them certain damage.
And neither the one nor the other, neither in the Russian gas giant, nor in the corridors of the Russian government, which is not very talkative on such occasions, is even going to deny.
But it’s obvious that she’s not going to swear either.
A rather unusual and therefore very entertaining picture is obtained.
In fact, everything is simple here and there are explanations for what is happening - both economic and purely political.
To begin with, this is no longer ours, in the sense of not Russian, question.
The informal obligations of the Russian side in this project, judging by what is happening, is only to embody the gas pipeline in iron, which the Russian side is doing with fair success.
But further - the problems of European partners. And they will solve them. Fortunately, they, these partners, have enough of such opportunities to solve these crooked problems - the visit of Angela Merkel and her agreement with the US President on the gas pipeline is quite a clear example here. Everyone knew that such questions would inevitably arise, including even our brother, a journalist. And it is extremely naive to assume that these problems eluded the attention of the German authorities, who are extremely interested in Nord Stream 2, for example, the authorities there - the expert services there are quite serious, this is somehow silly, completely wrong to deny.
As for the actual economics of the project and the impact of the Dusseldorf judicial fluctuations on it, even if it is possible to restrict supplies via Nord Stream 2 through the Third Energy Package (to be honest, the author of these lines does not really believe in this - there are enough legal loopholes there, they will be bypassed), First of all, Gazprom's European partners will suffer from this, while the Russian concern itself will remain, as they say, with its own.
And the point here is not even the inevitable rise in spot prices - offices of the level of Gazprom have no right to pay attention to small volatility, intermediaries make money on this.
And in the obvious change in Gazprom's priorities, which for some reason they diligently ignore not only on the outside: the investment program of the Russian gas giant will be primarily focused on domestic markets for several years. Suffice it to recall the recent direct orders of the Russian president on gasification, and not only for households, if you understand me correctly. Well, if you look from the point of view of pure commerce, then the losses of "Gazprom", if any, from the point of view of the big game, will remain entirely within the statistical error. And, of course, they will not be able to force Gazprom to come to an agreement with Ukraine or make any other concessions, as some of our western partners dream about, God forgive me. Here, after all, what's the matter:the imminent adjustment of spot prices easily solves the supplier's problems. Consumer problems are another matter. But this, let us emphasize again, is not our problem anymore. And that is precisely why Gazprom's European partners, acting exclusively in their own interests, have undertaken to solve them. By the way, not always successfully, judging by the situation in Dusseldorf. Well, that happens too.
But at the same time, please pay attention not only to the galloping prices on the spot markets, but also to the low occupancy rate of European UGS facilities - this is a rather strong argument for those who, looking for various opportunities (including legal ones), will correct the stupidity committed in Dusseldorf.
However, once again: this is more and more emotion.
Because long gas contracts, there is no doubt that the Russian side will be rigorously fulfilled.
Even in the current - difficult, but quite foreseeable - circumstances.
And the small Dusseldorf court fluctuations are the annoyance and loss of not the supplier, but the consumer.
So (sorry, we repeat), this is not our question a little.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.