Flood disasters such as those in Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia in mid-July must be expected everywhere in Germany in the future.

The German Weather Service (DWD) warns of this due to the rising temperatures of the earth's atmosphere due to climate change.

“Instead of continuous rain over a large area, there will be more frequent small-scale heavy rain.

In addition, short, extreme heavy rain will be even more intense, especially in the densely populated areas, ”said the head of climate and environmental advice at DWD, Tobias Fuchs, on Thursday at the press conference of the alliance“ Adaptation to Climate Change ”.

Kevin Hanschke

Volunteer.

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The association of the Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief, the Federal Institute for Building, Urban and Spatial Research, the Technical Relief Organization and the German Weather Service presented the study “Classification of extreme meteorological events for risk prevention against heavy rain for civil protection and urban development” in Offenbach Flood this summer was drafted.

Every community could experience flood scenarios

For this purpose, the DWD has analyzed the precipitation data from 2001 to 2020 and modeled future scenarios for the amount of precipitation and the risk of flooding in Germany.

These are "sobering," said Fuchs.

Every municipality in Germany could experience similar flood scenarios as in southern and western Germany in the near future.

This has "enormous effects" for civil protection, disaster risk management and urban and spatial planning. According to the DWD catalog, which statistically records the amount of rain in Germany, the number of heavy rain events has increased in recent years. In addition, the rainfalls would have reached a record level in 2021. That is also a consequence of climate change. At higher temperatures, the intensity of the water cycle increases and with it the amount and duration of precipitation. Since the climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assume rising temperatures in Central Europe, flood disasters are a "likely" scenario. The number of days of heavy rain in Germany has also increased slightly.

That is not always a problem.

If heavy rain occurs in a sparsely populated region, in the forest or in fields, it can be tolerated as long as the water is absorbed from the ground, said Fuchs.

The heavy rain is particularly problematic in structurally sealed areas.

This is one of the reasons why the Federal Institute for Building, Urban and Spatial Research and its Head of Department for Spatial and Urban Development Peter Jakubowski recommends "unsealing" urban areas: "Cities must be converted to be compact, climate-friendly and water-sensitive."

Trees, green spaces and open spaces are the most important elements of flood-proof urban development, as they absorb water and create a cooler urban climate.

Private house and property owners should also make more provision in this regard.