The Taliban movement won a resounding victory over the American occupation of Afghanistan, after a war of attrition that lasted for two decades, in which the movement was characterized by political toughness and military valor, and it maintained its unity and cohesion in a country known for political and military fragmentation. With this remarkable victory, the page of the brutal American invasion, which came as an angry reaction, erupted in the hearts of American leaders after the attacks of September 11, without regard to the plight of the Afghan people resulting from the war, or attention to the strategic consequences of being involved in a conflict in the heart of Asia, on the frontiers of international rivals of the United States; Russia and China. The United States was working to deal with Al-Qaeda away from the sweeping barbaric reactions that claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Afghans and Iraqis.
The real challenge begins now when the Taliban takes control of the public affairs in Afghanistan. Has the movement changed and learned the lessons of the bitter past? Is it aware of the profound transformations that have taken place in global geopolitics during the past 20 years?
The Qatari initiative to bring together the Taliban movement and the US government provided a beneficial space for both sides, ensuring a safe exit for the Americans from Afghanistan after their slogan became the words of Imru’ al-Qays, “I am satisfied with the booty on the way back”, so they left Afghanistan without incurring the losses resulting from the withdrawal under fire. It also provided the Taliban with the opportunity to return to the Afghan political scene without the heavy cost of blood, after the American-backed authority was on the brink of collapse. Thus, the State of Qatar rendered a great service to the Afghan people, when it contributed to avoiding a grinding civil war for power that accompanies the return of the Taliban, such as the civil war that accompanied its first rise in the mid-nineties. But the military victory and political leadership is just the beginning, and the real challenge begins now when the Taliban takes hold of the joints of public affairs in Afghanistan. Has the Taliban changed and learned the lessons of the bitter past? Is it aware of the profound transformations that have taken place in global geopolitics during the past 20 years?
Professor Fahmy Howaidi in his brilliant book "The Taliban: God's Soldiers in the Wrong Battle" published in 2001, and Dr. Ahmed Zaidan in his book "Afghanistan's Long Summer from Jihad to the Emirate" issued this year; Two contrasting images of the Afghan Taliban movement. Not each of the two men is accused, as both of them stem from an Islamic perspective, and carry a deep love for the Afghan people, and sympathy for them from the long ordeal they are going through. And both of them are valued for this proud people for their warlike prowess, and their Islamic pride, as expressed by Shakib Arslan in what Huwaidi quoted in his book, “If Islam did not have a beating race in the world, you would have seen its race among the inhabitants of the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush pulsating, and his determination there resurrected.”
As for Mr. Howeidi, he presented his readers with a deep critique of the Taliban in 2001, months before the September 11 attacks, a criticism stemming from my heart’s sympathy, sincere eagerness to repay the experience, and fear for the image of Islam and its place among the worlds from the effects of the excess that accompanied that experience. Huwaidi took over the Taliban the chaos in the administration of the state, where "there is no president or subordinate", and the authoritarian superficiality in the engineering of society, where "there is a beard for every citizen, and a chaudry for every citizen." The English and American way. He also accused them of their naivety in understanding the world of politics and world politics, as they calculated that "their knowledge of Sharia sciences provides them with a reference and background that enables them to clarify the limits of right and wrong in (all) areas of human activity."
At the end of his book, Howeidi summarized his assessment of the Taliban experience by saying that "the Taliban have proven relatively successful in eliminating falsehood, but they have failed in achieving the truth," and therefore "they did not build anything of value over the ruins of the past that honors Islam and Muslims," and presented an expressive conclusion, which is that " The (Taliban) experience remains very useful, in that it provides us with a model for much of what we should be wary of and avoid in Islamic practice."
However, Professor Fahmy Howeidi did not neglect to expose Western hypocrisy and international duplicity in its handling of human and humanitarian issues in Afghanistan, where he described many voices condemning the Taliban as the voices of a hypocritical people, who defend the "legacy of humanity" and who are "criminals against humanity itself".
We have seen in Kabul airport during the past few days renewed scenes of that Western hypocrisy, disregard for the lives of Afghans, and the comfort of their lives.
But Dr. Ahmed Zeidan, in his new and interesting book, "The Long Summer of Afghanistan," presents a different picture of the Taliban today from the old image that Fahmi Howeidi dealt with in his book. In Dr. Zidan’s book, important notes are made about the transformations that have occurred in the movement during the past 20 years, “whether in terms of military practice, or in terms of political and media behavior, and even social practice,” and he believes that “the Taliban movement’s dealings with the social incubator has changed a lot… The Taliban have changed a lot." Zeidan describes these transformations in the Taliban's biography and trajectory as "an earthquake in the movement's mentality and practices."
I hope that the Taliban movement has overcome the disadvantages that Mr. Howeidi detailed, and that it has learned after suffering. I also hope that Dr. Zeidan is correct in his optimistic assessment of those he called the “new Taliban.” Everyone learns, but smart people learn with black ink, and morons learn with red ink. Most importantly, the world has changed a lot, and the Taliban really must. What has happened to Afghanistan and to the world during the last two decades of major events and profound transformations requires the Taliban to change its thought and political paths, so that the joy of liberation from the brutal American occupation is the beginning of a recovery for the proud Afghan people from their long suffering. Otherwise, its new rise to rule Afghanistan may turn - God forbid - into a renewed tragedy, and a new opponent of the life of this Muslim people who has long suffered from the scourge of war and destruction.
Strategic theorists do not disagree that the greatest change in the international balance of power today is the rise of China, and its transformation from a dormant economic giant into an international power with military and political ambitions. It can be said that the Chinese leadership was fully comprehended by the equation of the relationship between the "emerging powers" and the "dominant powers". It has realized that, as a rising force, it needs to build and expand quietly, in order to avoid premature conflicts that may lead to the erosion of its strength, or impede its progress. China has exploited the preoccupation of its American opponents in futile wars of attrition in the Middle East, and immersed them in their imperial illusions, which are delusions inherited from the outdated European colonial past.America did not wake up from its war in Afghanistan and Iraq and its skirmishes with Russia in Eastern Europe, until China became holding the keys to the global economy, and this was translated into political capital and military influence in the traditional places of American influence, whether marine, such as the South China Sea, Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, or land Including West Asia and the Middle East.
It seems that the transformations of the international system during the past two decades are what explain the rapid American flight from Afghanistan, without any attempt to arrange the internal Afghan situation, or interest in its local allies who came to power on the back of American tanks and under the umbrella of American bombing. The past 20 years have witnessed profound shifts in the balance of the international system, and many strategic factors in Asia and the world have changed, which made the Americans radically recalculate and seek to revise their international strategy in general, and Asian ones in particular. In this context, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan was particularly hasty and confused. It is the withdrawal that left a strategic void that many regional and international powers will seek to fill, the most important of which are China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey.
The Turks are very interested in participating in filling the strategic void in Afghanistan.
Although Turkey is geographically far from Afghanistan;
Its orientation to the east in recent years has become clear.
This trend includes the revival of historical ties with the peoples of Central Asia with Turkish roots, including Azeris, Uzbeks, Kyrgyz, Kazakhs, and others.
The Chinese are breathing a sigh of relief today by moving the Americans away from their western land side, and will devote more time to confronting America in their maritime domain, especially in the South China Sea.
Perhaps they will start planning to make Afghanistan - with its wasted natural resources - a part of their economic advance to the west, which we have seen before in the massive infrastructure that they are building in the heart of Pakistan and its coasts, and in the countries of Central Asia in general, as we saw in the strategic agreement between China and Iran, which It opens the door for China to have direct access to the Gulf region and its energy.
The Russians are happy with the American defeat in Afghanistan, and their distance from Russia's southern flank, although they wish the Americans to remain exhausted there, and are preoccupied with confronting Russia on other fronts, especially in Eastern Europe. In his book "The Long Summer of Afghanistan", Ahmed Zeidan quoted Putin as saying once, "We thank the United States and NATO forces for taking (they bear) the burden of fighting terrorism in Afghanistan, and we hope that they will continue to do so to the end." But the rule of the Taliban opens up some challenges for the Russians, especially with Putin's insistence on returning the Central Asian countries that were part of the Soviet Union to the Russian embrace.
The Pakistanis are the happiest people with Afghanistan's return to the fore, but they are not far from practical participation in that return, as the Taliban was - and still is - a strategic extension of Pakistan inside Afghanistan. The Afghan government, which appeared under the auspices of the United States during the last two decades, has fallen into a lot of crudeness and political stupidity in its dealings with Pakistan. The new rise of the Taliban serves Pakistan, and opens up a new opportunity for it to consolidate its regional influence in Central Asia, and to strengthen its strategic alliance with China.
The Turks are very interested in participating in filling the strategic void in Afghanistan. Although Turkey is geographically far from Afghanistan; Its orientation to the east in recent years has become clear. This trend includes reviving historical ties with the peoples of Central Asia with Turkish roots, including Azeris, Uzbeks, Kyrgyz, Kazakhs, and others. This approach also includes closer ties with Islamic peoples in general, and to benefit from the energy wealth of Central Asia. Turkey has entered into a kind of strategic alliance with Pakistan in recent years, and Afghanistan is an important gateway to the Central Asian countries. Turkey has the experience and the will to make a serious contribution to the reconstruction and healing of Afghanistan.
The Iranians are happy about the Americans' departure from their eastern flank, and they consider this to ease the siege imposed on them by the United States on land and at sea. Despite the ideological difference between the Iranian and Taliban regimes, each has an interest in coexisting with the other in the short term at least. Also, both of them can harm the other if they do not coexist with kindness. It may help coexistence between the Taliban and Iran that both of them need to have a good relationship with China and Pakistan, and this is what makes the strategic environment surrounding them likely for the course of coexistence between them.
Does the Taliban movement realize the necessity of dealing with the internal social forces with generosity and breadth, and with the wisdom and good advice urged by the Holy Qur’an, away from religious tutelage and political oppression? Does the movement understand the necessity of expanding its rule base to be more representative of the Afghan people of all stripes, and more realizing the meanings of shura and justice, which is the necessary condition for turning victory into stability, not just a transient change in the balance of power? Do the Taliban realize that the Afghan people today need someone to heal their wounds, renew hope, and set an example for them in integrity and community service, more than they need someone who imposes their view of values and morals on them from above by force and oppression? Is the movement able to see the gaps that opened up before it and Afghanistan in the international system, and to make good use of these gaps to keep the forces of evil and international greed away from its country, and build common spaces with everyone to serve the wounded Afghan people? Questions to which I do not have an answer, but days will answer themWithout a doubt in the future to come.
There are hopeful signs in the new Taliban's rhetoric, especially in the tolerant treatment of the remnants of the collapsed political system, and the diplomatic sense in which it deals with foreign powers.
Other indicators also emerged indicating that the movement is still poor in the field of Islamic political jurisprudence, especially in its position on democracy, and its reductionist view of the concept of Islamic political rule.
But it is the practical facts that will cast doubt on certainty in the coming weeks and months.
The Afghans have always demonstrated their war valor, their faith, and their ability to repel any Tarek enemy;
But they have not yet demonstrated their political sophistication and their ability to manage peace wisely, coexistence and consensus.
And I hope that the departure of the American occupation will be the beginning of a new political thinking that suits the gravity of the sacrifices, and stops the suffering of this proud Muslim people, who do not give inferiority to their religion, land or honor.