The crisis also means new opportunities.
At least, this can be said about the deepest political, economic and social crisis in which Lebanon has found itself over the past 150 years, and about the unique opportunities it opens up for Russia.
For ten months Lebanon lived without a government, there are kilometer-long gasoline queues in the country, wild inflation that devalued the national currency, unemployment, hunger riots and an increase in street crime.
Due to the ongoing financial and political crisis, in hot August, air conditioners were turned off in some government agencies and universities - thus, in addition to the financial crisis, there is also an energy crisis in Lebanon and a catastrophic shortage of electricity.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who resigned in July, was unable to form a government due to political differences between key political players: Maronite Christians, Hezbollah, Sunnis, Druze.
Hariri, a protégé of the West (the US and France), as well as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, tried to implement the Western plan to rescue Lebanon, promising IMF loans in exchange for admitting Western auditors to the country's central bank and the possibility of forming his own government.
But Hezbollah, through its allies in the Lebanese system of government, blocked Hariri's initiatives for ten months, clearly demonstrating to him that there would be no compromise.
Russia is one of the few world powers that maintains very active relations between all parties to the Lebanese political conflict.
So, for example, in April 2021, Moscow hosted Saad Hariri, when he was still prime minister and tried to stay in power, seeking help from Russia.
George Shaaban, Hariri's special envoy in Moscow, said at the time: “We believe that Russia can help to break the political deadlock in Lebanon, since Moscow has good ties with all political parties in Lebanon and with those states of the region that influence the situation in our country. ".
By "all political parties", I dare to assume, Shaaban meant the most influential military-political force in Lebanon - the pro-Iranian Hezbollah, which appoints and dismisses all Lebanese prime ministers, sometimes even in the most radical way.
After all, it was the impressive delegation of Hezbollah that in a cunning way - through the Iranian embassy in Moscow - in March, a month before Hariri, flew to Russia.
Among the guests in Moscow was Mohammad Raad, the head of the movement's parliamentary bloc, which was received by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov himself.
Prior to that, Raad was in Moscow for the last time in 2011, shortly before the start of the Syrian events against Bashar al-Assad.
Then the route of the Hezbollahites included not only the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but also the State Duma, the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of the Russian Federation - and this is only official.
One can only speculate about the level of informal meetings during both visits.
Ammar al-Mousawi, a member of the Hezbollah delegation, told reporters in March 2021 that "Russia has expressed its readiness to assist in the formation of the Lebanese government."
What exactly the representatives of the "party of Allah" were talking about then was not leaked to the press, except for the announced message that Hezbollah could help Russia increase its influence in Lebanon (and, accordingly, strengthen the success of the Russian Federation in Syria, where we have been present since 2015 ).
But in exchange for what?
In April, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar published an article that Russia and Hezbollah were discussing opening an office in Moscow.
This opens up a qualitatively new level of cooperation and interaction between Russia, Iran, Syria, Lebanon and, of course, Hezbollah.
Hariri's failure as the implementer of the Napoleonic plans of French President Emmanuel Macron, who last summer, taking advantage of the explosion of the port in Beirut, flew there on a real political (almost wrote "pre-election") tour (a trip to the ruins of the port, meetings with residents, creative intelligentsia, planting cedars - the tree, which is the national symbol of the country, and the announcement that Lebanon is returning under the French protectorate), led to the fact that the Americans from the UAE and Saudi Arabia began to lose interest in financial assistance to Beirut.
For investing finances in what you cannot control is a rather dubious undertaking, and financial appetites and the level of corruption in Lebanon are truly bottomless.
All this has led to the fact that interest in Lebanon has increased on the part of those countries that can influence the internal Lebanese processes and have ties with Hezbollah.
In addition to Iran, which is financially in a difficult situation, these are Russia, China, Germany (in the last column I mentioned that Iran's rear in the EU is Austro-German) and Turkey.
It is important to note that Russia's political interest in Lebanon is not due to ambition alone.
It is primarily about protecting strategic interests and striving to expand its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.
So, after the discovery of a large number of large subsea gas fields in the Levant basin, Russian NOVATEK became part of a consortium jointly with French Total and Italian Eni, which began exploration for gas and oil on behalf of Beirut.
Together with the Europeans, Russia will rebuild the port of Beirut, which was completely destroyed by an explosion in August 2020.
In the Lebanese crisis and chaos, Russia sees a threat to its interests, says Bassam Mokdad, a columnist for the Lebanese newspaper Al-Modon: “These interests are not only in the influence of what is happening in Lebanon on the situation in Syria.
They concern Lebanon itself and Russian oil and gas interests.
Thus, in Lebanon, Rosneft has created a subsidiary structure, Levant Storage SARL (Sole Partner).
The structure is registered in Beirut and included in the list of affiliates on February 26, 2020 ”.
A little earlier, in 2019, Rosneft signed a 20-year agreement with Lebanon on the operational management of an oil storage facility in the port of Tripoli.
Here, however, there is a subtle point in relations with Iran, which helps Russia to establish contacts with Hezbollah.
For, expanding its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, Russia is in a conflict of interest with Tehran, which has its own strategic "pipeline of friendship" between Iran, Iraq and Syria, which is competing with Russian expansion in Syria and Lebanon.
I came across an interesting analytical article by Abdullah Khurram, a doctoral student in the Department of International Relations at the Australian National University, on the growing interest of Russia in Lebanon.
He writes that the Russian race for access to gas from the Eastern Mediterranean dates back to 2013, when Damascus and Moscow signed an agreement allowing Russia to explore gas off the Syrian Mediterranean coast in exchange for protecting Bashar al-Assad's regime.
And in April 2021 (just after the visits to Moscow by Hezbollah and then Prime Minister Hariri), two Russian companies, Capital Limited and East Med Amrit, signed an agreement with the Syrian side on the possibility of starting oil and gas exploration off the Syrian coast.
“This agreement has caused bewilderment in Lebanon, as the waters between Syria and Lebanon are disputed.
In addition, this agreement puts Russia against the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (Egypt, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Jordan. -
Yu. Yu.
).
However, Russia sees this as a strategic leverage that gives Moscow space to participate in negotiations that will determine the hydrocarbon future of the region, ”wrote Khurram in the Australian Outlook, the Australian Foreign Ministry and our RIAC counterpart in June 2021.
This is a very serious application, you must agree.
I would like to draw your attention to the fact that Russia concluded all of its Lebanese super-deals in oil and gas under Saad Hariri.
On June 28, 2021, a business delegation from Russia flew to Lebanon to discuss plans to rehabilitate grain storage facilities in the port of Beirut.
Lebanese interim minister of public works Michel Najjar told reporters that "the Russians are also interested in building elevators in the port of Tripoli."
The Chinese and Germans have also joined in the restoration of the port of Beirut with a multi-billion dollar plan from the consortium Hamburg Port Consulting and Colliers (AFP).
Yeghia Tashjian, an analyst at the American University of Beirut, writes in his article “Russia's Interests in Lebanon - Realizing a Middle Eastern Dream”: “Russia, which is not washed by the Mediterranean Sea, but has a naval base in Tartus, Syria, has an impact on neighboring countries including Lebanon. Russia sees Lebanon as part of the Syrian path, so Moscow will continue to play in this field to make the most of its influence after intervening in the Syrian conflict. One of Russia's main goals in the Middle East is to expand its influence in the region and control energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia is playing a serious role in resolving the crisis with Syrian refugees - there are about 1.5 million of them in Lebanon ”.
From February to June, Russian officials held 14 meetings with officials in Lebanon, including the Party of Lebanese Armed Persons, Prime Minister Hariri, Adviser to the President of Lebanon on Russian affairs, Hezbollah, the leader of the Druze and the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, head of the Free Patriotic Movement , the Maronite patriarch, and so on.
Experts note the successful use of "hard" and "soft power" by Russia in strengthening its presence in Lebanon.
"Russian bear in Lebanon," writes the Tehran Times on July 7, 2021, and kind of welcomes "Lebanon's orientation to the East," that is, toward Russia and China.
I quote:
“This process seems to be closely related to the future of Lebanon and the future of China's Belt and Road project.
However, it is not yet clear whether Russian companies will invest in the Tripoli refinery and in the rehabilitation and expansion of the port, or whether they will be invested by Chinese companies.
If that happens, Tripoli will regain its glorious navigational history as it was one of the most important ports in the Mediterranean.
And it's time for Russia and China to expand on the warm shores of the Mediterranean.
(It sounds enthusiastic, but knowing the Persian allegory, the article can also be read as a warning to the Americans who see the "Russian bear" in the Middle East, rather, in a nightmare.)
In general, as soon as Russia began to rapidly strengthen its positions in Syria (after the legitimization of Bashar al-Assad in the last elections) and Lebanon, it was then that interesting events began to take place.
Saad Hariri was ousted, and on July 26, 2021, Najib Mikati, a Sunni, politician and businessman from Tripoli, was appointed the new Prime Minister of Lebanon - the same Tripoli where Rosneft rented a terminal for the storage of oil products for 20 years. According to Igor Sechin, "it will contribute to the development of trading and the implementation of other projects in the oil and gas sector of Lebanon."
So that there is no doubt about whose candidacy Mikati is, I will quote Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qasem: “The nomination of Najib Mikati is a bold move by Hezbollah.
Further, the Hezbollah secretary general said that Mikati was the only viable option for appointment as prime minister and only Hezbollah would not resist in the formation of a new government, and "the French and Americans were informed about this and agreed."
Since Mikati is a Sunni, this “blocks the path for anyone who tries to inflame between Sunnis and Shiites, according to Qasem.
And there is no doubt that Hezbollah will participate in the formation of the government "and no one will dare to interfere and prevent Hezbollah from entering the government."
As well as the fact that the key decisions in Lebanon are made by Hezbollah, and Iran is still behind it.
The same Kasem, for example, just returned from the inauguration of the new President of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi, where he took the place of the guest of honor in the front row in the hall during the ceremony.
The representatives of the EU were seated behind him, which should have emphasized that the status of Hezbollah for the Iranian authorities is higher than the European Union and others.
Hezbollah's henchman, under the watchful eye of the movement and the IRGC, will form a new "salvation government" for Lebanon.
This means that Russia will become even more sensitive on the Lebanese issue due to relations with Iran (those who believe that Lebanese Hezbollah does not depend on Iran should carefully study the history of the organization's creation).
Immediately in the Syrian city of Daraa, hostilities resumed, as if on a signal, and the ceasefire agreement, which Russia had lobbied, was violated.
On August 9, 2021, The Wall Street Journal publishes an article with the eloquent headline "Russia's attempts to gain influence in the Middle East are held back by renewed hostilities in Syria."
In 2011, the Syrian revolution began in Daraa, and Russia, which helped to conclude a peace agreement between the rebels and Assad, was able to return to Bashar al-Assad the territory lost by his regime after the uprising in 2018.
In general, the meaning is clear: as soon as Russia becomes strong and competitive, tough games to contain it begin.
The outbreak of fighting in Daraa will not make any difference in the overall situation, but (I quote WSJ) "they risk undermining the credibility of Russia as a political arbiter in Syria, despite its successes" and "undermining Moscow's desire to gain a foothold as a major mediator in the Middle East."
Here.
This is already a real confession!
Now we are waiting for news from the new Lebanese Prime Minister Mikati, who - it is possible - has been promoted by Iran for the same neat Russian containment in Lebanon.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.