"Climate change is already affecting all regions of the Earth, in multiple ways." Panmao Zhai, one of those responsible for the first part of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Group of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC) of the UN that is presented this Monday at a press conference thus summarizes the content of what constitutes the great A scientific tool that politicians will have at their disposal when making decisions to combat the climate crisis at the Glasgow Climate Summit in November.
About 250 climate scientists from around the world have reviewed some 40,000 articles of scientific literature for three years to carry out this work, submitted before publication to the scrutiny of the scientific community and the delegates of 195 countries, meeting for two weeks. to discuss and finalize your final content.
This first part of the sixth report, which updates the one published in 2013, has 13 chapters and is focused on the physics of climate change, what is the state of the climate, how has it varied, how much of that variation is attributable to activity human life and what is expected in the future (the other two parts will be published in February and March 2022 and will analyze the impacts of climate change and mitigation strategies, respectively).
"We have evidence that climate change is not only unequivocally caused by humans, but now we can affirm that
its human origin is indisputable,"
says Francisco J. Doblas Reyes, director of the Department of Earth Sciences of the National Center, in a telephone conversation. of Supercomputing, ICREA professor and coordinator of chapter 10 of the report, on methodological aspects.
"It is a fact that man is the cause of a large part of climate change. We forget the denial debate. There is no scientific basis, no evidence that allows us to consider the opposite," agrees the Spanish José Manuel Gutiérrez, and director of the Institute of Physics of Cantabria, which has coordinated another of the chapters, the one dedicated to the Atlas and an interactive application that allows selective searches and which is one of the novelties of the report. "There is already enough evidence to talk about regional changes," says Gutiérrez.
After their evaluation, the IPCC scientists assure that the consequences of climate change can be perceived regionally.
Its effects are already being felt throughout the planet, but in addition, they are intensifying (the phenomena it causes are increasingly intense and destructive) and accelerating.
The long-awaited report comes precisely in the middle of a summer in which extreme events are affecting many corners of the planet, with fire currently ravaging Greece and Turkey, the recent floods in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and China or the destructive fires in the west coast of the US and Canada or the Russian Arctic.
"One of the new conclusions of this report compared to 2013 is that it can be said that
all regions of the earth are being affected by climate change.
Some due to rising temperatures, others due to changes in
climate change
regimes. precipitation, others due to the frequency of droughts or fires ... For the first time the scientific community has enough evidence to say that not only is the impact on the global average temperature perceived, that it means nothing to most people because it is a statistical world, but those changes are already happening and affecting people, "says Doblas.
Since the end of the 19th century, the global temperature of the Earth has already risen 1.1 degrees (0.27 degrees more than in the previous report of 2013).
To achieve the international goal of not increasing by more than 1.5 degrees, it would be necessary to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 (current plans advocate doing so in 2050).
The Mediterranean Region, 'hot zone'
The Mediterranean region, where the increase in temperature since the end of the 19th century has been higher than the average for the planet, since it
has risen from 1.5 to 1.6 degrees,
is one of the areas of the world that is being affected the most for climate change, after the Arctic.
In this region the forecast is that there will be more intense droughts.
"The Mediterranean is a 'hot spot' of climate change, one of the areas where we see the clearest signs of what may happen in the future, and where it is seen with more certainty that precipitation decreases",
says José Manuel Gutiérrez, which ensures that it is one of the areas where the most impacts of climate change are expected, and the most worrying, along with the Arctic.
"While the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average, the Mediterranean is slightly behind, and this is seen especially in spring and autumn. There is a temperature increase much higher than the global average and a change in the regimes. of precipitation, in the frequency and severity of droughts in the Mediterranean area ", says Doblas.
"Within the Mediterranean region, the Iberian Peninsula, North Africa and the Anatolian Peninsula are where the most intense changes are expected," says Doblas.
In Central Europe the main forecast is that they will have more torrential rains and floods.
"What this report says is fully compatible with what happened in July in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium," says Doblas.
Thaw in the Arctic
With regard to this key region for the Earth, Francisco Doblas points out that "one of the most striking aspects is that from 2050, which is practically tomorrow, we can expect an ice-free Arctic, which means that it will have less than one million square kilometers of ice in summer (in September it reaches the minimum of ice). These are really very impressive values since now it usually has between three and five million square kilometers, while in the 80s and 90s, it had the double, between six and seven million square kilometers. What has happened in the last 30 or 25 years is really impressive, and we have seen it directly with the satellites, it is not about prediction models, "he says.
It is a very complex and vulnerable system, with a very precarious balance.
The loss of ice and the reduction of its thickness, he assures, will affect many animals that will not be able to survive but also indigenous communities that depend on ice and there will be ecosystems that become invasive. "
NOBEL DE LA PAZ IN 2007
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1988 to comprehensively assess the body of scientific, technical and socio-economic knowledge available on climate change, its causes, possible consequences and response strategies by the Governments.
The one presented today is the sixth evaluation report carried out since 1988 by the IPCC, which in 2007 received the Nobel Peace Prize together with Al Gore.
"This report is a tool for politicians that politicians and scientists around the world have asked us to organize ourselves to offer. It is not that scientists try to convince them of anything, they want to have the best information available to make decisions" says Doblas.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
Know more
Science and Health
science
Environment
Climate change
Environment Last June was the warmest on Earth's surface since 1880
Climate changeCompanies and PP warn of the social impact of the new 'Green Plan' of the EU and ask for balance between economy and environment
Climate crisis The German government attributes severe flooding to climate change: what does the science say?
See links of interest
Last News
Work calendar
Home THE WORLD TODAY
Master Investigation Journalism
Horoscope August 9
Styrian Grand Prix, live